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Market Rally of 2012 Is Almost Over: Bianco

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Jim Bianco thinks the stock market is living on borrow time. Giving his outlook for the rest of 2012, the president of Bianco research says stocks "might have another 5 to 6% to go and that's on the topside." He has two main reasons for his relative gloom: The end of stimulus and rapidly shrinking earnings.

"It's a QE world," says Bianco, referring to Quantitative Easing. "All the Central Banks in the world are printing money."

By the account of many, including Bianco, cheap money in the form of artificially low rates has been the main driver of solid global stock performance over the last three-months.

"There are signs (easing) is coming to an end, if so the rally goes way," he predicts.

Bianco is unswayed by the argument that election years typically mean less action from the Fed. Despite the fact that the Fed hasn't made radical moves in election years since George H.W. Bush, Bianco says 2008 proves the Fed is unswayed by political pressures.

Regardless of whether or not the the election sways their actions, Bianco says the Federal Reserve is hamstrung by inflation figures. Noting that Personal Consumption Expentures are approaching the unofficial 2% ceiling, he says there's an "argument for not tightening, but rather less stimulating."

As for earnings, Bianco doesn't believe they're as great as some believe. Corporations are beating estimates at a 60% rate so far, but that's far below the mid-70% average level, and near the lows of the last 10-years, comparable to the 58% of companies exceeding analyst expectations in 2008.

Even more daunting for the bulls, Bianco says the real growth rate of S&P500 is far below the published 9%. If you exclude AIG (AIG), which is coming off a $16 billion loss last year, earnings are expanding at a mere 3%. Not exactly supportive of an expansion in the low double-digit market P/E.

No stimulus and shrinking earnings. Is Bianco in tune with reality or a gloom-spewing bear? Let us know your thoughts in the comment section below. Please note, there are more than the 2 suggested opinions.

Breakout Asks

Do you think Facebook (FB) will end this year above or below its IPO price of $38 a share?

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  • Yes, FB will recover
  • No, FB is too unstable
 
  • Jo  •  Pacifica, California  •  2 months ago
    There will be a 30% - 50% market correction by the end of the year. This is a house of cards market rally built on the Fed's borrowed cheap money. The Fed is now constrained by inflation and the $15.5 trillion U.S. National Debt. The Fed funny money is becoming worthless. Have fun :-)
  • James Bianco  •  Pleasanton, California  •  2 months ago
    More doom and gloom. I think the Dow will keep bouncing around 1300 for the rest of the year.
    • Jo 2 months ago
      You're a little low here. Try 6,000 - 7,000.
  • Lee  •  Elmhurst, Illinois  •  3 months ago
    We are all living on borrowed time. They keep printing and printing more and making more debt. They will keep on till they are up against it. No one will able to bail out the last one in line. Sooner or later this is going to be 1 big global catastrafy.
    • michaelc 3 months ago
      Do you mean 'catasstrophy' or 'castrate trophy'?
    • Appletree 3 months ago
      See, now that's if nothing changes. We plan on big changes in November.
    • Matt 3 months ago
      lol@Michael C
  • RICHARD  •  Reno, Nevada  •  3 months ago
    ITS ONLY A MATTER OF TIME UNTIL THE PIPER HAS TO BE PAID
    • lee 3 months ago
      Less time than some people think.... maybe just weeks
  • Lonnie  •  3 months ago
    They call it a rally...I call it a SCAM....
  • Marv  •  3 months ago
    When Wall Street can no longer sell the market short. The correction will come. All the Kings horses and all the Kings men (democrat, Republican’s or Obama) cannot fix this problem without due's being paid. Anyone who lives in the real world with any basic math skills know you cannot pay down your debt with borrowed money. This only compounds your debt. Government destroyed its own tax base when they allowed the exporting of American jobs. You gotta get real here. Government doesn't move without tax dollars. Americans can't swim to their jobs every morning. America has become a country where common sense no longer makes sense. If you have 6th grade level math and have any common sense at all you'll see the stupidly of this governments thinking. They’re in trouble and really don’t know what to do about it. But the American people will pay in the end. Thomas Jefferson referenced, there should be a revolution every 10 years in this country just to keep government in line.
    Have a good day.
    • James25 3 months ago
      Regular math doesnt seem to work in the world of big government money handling.
  • DavidJ  •  3 months ago
    There was no "rally". There was only a sideways market with substantial volatility.
  • A Yahoo! User  •  3 months ago
    I think Bianco is absolutely right. the stock market's on borrowed time. we have a 16 Trillion dollar debt. we can't pay this back. food, gas, gold, and sliver has gone up recently. the housing market has tanked. more US jobs are being out sourced to other countries. middle class is almost obsolete in the US. you're either rich or poor now. Obama plans to make major cut to our military. finding a job in the current state of our economy is like finding a needle in a haystack. where is is our military supposed to find jobs if we can't find jobs?
  • boylovers69  •  Philadelphia, Pennsylvania  •  3 months ago
    so this was a rally? what a freaking joke. until interest rates become at least 5% and banks can actualy take a risk at lending money nothing is going to happen. they will not take the risk at 2 %
  • michaelc  •  3 months ago
    Inflation rate--2 % Bank savings interest rate 1 % Net gain - 1 % NOT GOOD for the ordinary citizen !
  • Work Horse  •  3 months ago
    Let's use you as an example. You have $10,000 in PIIGS government bonds at 8%. You have $10,000 in stocks. You lose $7,000 in the Greece government debt restructure, default, bankruptcy, whatever term you like. Now you have $10,000 in stocks under-hedged by only $3,000 in some other bond. You pull some out of stocks and add it to your bond hedge, so you have perhaps $6,500 in stocks hedged by $6,500 in bonds.

    Notice how a funny thing happened on the way to re-balancing your portfolio after the PIIGS bond crash....... You now have less money in stocks. Translation: You now have less money supporting stocks.

    No big deal for the stock market. You're too small to support or lower stock prices. But when the Wall Street Big Money loses $700 billion in Greece bonds, they will re-balance their portfolios on a gigantic scale, just to keep a safe percentage of hedge in bonds. They will pull hundreds of billions out of the stock market virtually overnight and move it to bonds.

    That will be a rather significant pullout of money that was supporting stocks just a few days ago. When the Big Money pullout occurs (to re-balance their Big Money portfolio), stocks will fall rapidly, and savvy traders will bail too, to cut their losses right away.

    The losers will be folks who have it tied up with their company's 401k, or who rely on the advice of a financial advisor. Those are the folks who will ride the crash all the way down. OUCH!
  • samurai  •  Newark, New Jersey  •  3 months ago
    He is saying the same thing that Jim Rogers has been saying, QE3 is already underway. This is necessary to stop the path of least resitance - DEFLATION - a reduction in the supply of money, which is really bank credit. The central banks are the lenders of last resort and the governments are the borrowers of last resort. Checkmate comes later in the decade. The demise of the credit-based monetary system.
  • Ronald  •  Bakersfield, California  •  3 months ago
    What rally --- you mean the one where we were trying to break even from last year.
  • BRONCO  •  Los Angeles, California  •  3 months ago
    Reminds me of Bill Gross of Pimco with the bonds. Bill lost his butt and cleaned out his
    investors' pockets as well. He thought a downgrade of the U.S. credit rating would cause investors in Treasuries to sell at a frantic pace. The opposite happened. Investors still considered U.S. Treasury bonds to be the safest place to keep their money and piled into
    Treasuries instead of out of them. He misjudged because he was basing his assessment on economic trends instead of investor sentiment which is the real driving force of stock prices.
    Bianco may be making the same mistake of considering economic trends and manipulations
    to be the short and mid-term drivers of stock prices. They are not. Investor sentiment trumps
    economics in the short and mid-term where stock prices are concerned. Remember that
    the Vanguard 500 S&P Index Fund beats 90% of managed funds over time and that includes the likes of the Bill Grosses and the Biancos.
  • Gordon  •  Long Beach, California  •  3 months ago
    Thought US dollar, was the strongest currency in the world?
    what happened ????????US Dollar is sXXX
  • FreedomHawk  •  Carol Stream, Illinois  •  3 months ago
    Just do what you’ve been doing… Print more money and steal it off the backs of poor workers not invested in the markets!
  • RickB  •  Tipp City, Ohio  •  3 months ago
    who the F knows?..NOBODY...this whole oil based, debt-based society is on "borrow" time!!
  • John  •  Sunnyvale, California  •  3 months ago
    WAIT A MINUTE!!!!! Aren't we still blaming Bush???????
  • Rick  •  Akron, Ohio  •  3 months ago
    Yahoo will publish anything now-a-days... all these articles calling this a "Rally"... STOP CALLING IT A RALLY! The market was Flat for 2011... yet in December they called it a Rally LOL... They need to start looking at the longer term aspects of the stock market to consider it a rally. Just like 2011, the market went down hill all year, then in December it swung up but still ended flat... they called it a Rally. In 2011 we didn't earn anything, the market was FLAT. As a matter of fact, the last 10 years have ended flat.... maybe it's about time the market 'swing' up a little. Everytime it does you get some clowns saying it won't last. These guys probably have money to invest into the market and are trying to #$%$ it so they can get a better share price.... as soon as they are invested they will wright another article saying they can expect a 10% gain for the year. LOL
  • boylovers69  •  Philadelphia, Pennsylvania  •  3 months ago
    QE3 will be the death of the dollar, buy food and staples all you can as fast as u can/, you cant eat gold, hyper inflation will follow the toilet paper we call the dollar and the fed is what destroyed it.

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