Why buy today if you can get it cheaper tomorrow?
That's the basic thesis surrounding crude oil and energy stocks right now coming from Jonathan Krinsky, the chief technical market analyst at Miller, Tabak & Co. He says we're just days away from the sector's worst month of the year.
"If you also look at the average seasonal move throughout the year, (you'll see that) both energy and crude oil tend to peak in the middle part of the year," Krinsky says in the attached video. "You get a better low in the Fall and then a rally into year-end."
As it stands, NYMEX crude futures have risen about 25% in the past three months, and were recently trading at $108, which is their highest level in 16 months. At the same time, the Energy sector has gained about 15%, as it too is being pegged to transition from a great month and year to one that is seasonally challenging.
"This is an average. It's not going to work every time," Krinksy says, but adds "from a seasonal perspective I think it makes sense to wait and look for a better entry into energy towards the fall."
Adding to his confidence on this call is the fact that large speculators currently have record net-long positions.
"So traders are positioned very strongly for higher crude oil and often times when you get everybody on one side of the boat it can very swiftly move back to the other direction," he explains.
Not surprisingly, there are ETFs available for those inclined to bet against oil and energy, including the ProShares UltraShort Crude Oil fund (SCO), Direxion's Daily Energy Bear 3x (ERY) and the ProShares Short Oil and Gas fund (DDG).
More from Breakout:
- Oil, Gas, & Consumable Fuels