A glimmer of hope emerges today after world leaders gathered in Washington, D.C. over the weekend for an annual IMF policy meeting that was dominated by talks of stemming the European debt crisis. Leaders have vowed to do whatever necessary to "maintain financial stability, restore confidence, and support growth," according to the communiqué from European officials. The commitment to find a way forward exists, but the means of getting there are still largely under debate.
Much of the focus right now is how to use and whether to expand the Eurozone's rescue fund —the European Financial Stability Facility or EFSF. But all 17 Eurozone nations would have to approve an expansion; a challenge within itself.
"Psychologically, I'm not sure a lot of Americans realize what such a big difference in personalities all these countries have," says British-born, but US-based hedge fund manager Simon Baker of Baker Avenue Asset management. He points to a trifecta of hurdles before more funds could be pumped into the EFSF: the psychology of the people, the troika (officials from the European Commission, European Central Bank, & IMF), and local politicians throughout the various countries.
What seems to be gaining most steam as a reported by The London Telegraph, is a deal costing up to 2-Trillion Euros that would set up a firewall around Greece, Ireland, and Portugal to prevent contagion to larger nations —namely Italy and Spain- by shoring up the most at-risk European banks, if and when Greece does default.
"It's inevitable that Greece will default. There's a difference in the countries over there between being illiquid and insolvent. Greece is insolvent; Italy and Spain you could argue are illiquid," Baker says.
And they're becoming more illiquid according to Breakout's Jeff Macke. "It's the essence of the Greek default… they've got capital requirements. If they admit that Greek debt is worthless, which by the way it is, at that point, they need to fix their balance sheets because their assets will go down to nothing," Macke explains.
Bottom line, "put the backstops in place right now and allow Greece to fail in an orderly way and recapitalize… the alternative to it failing, is disaster over there in Europe. It really is, you just can't imagine it," Baker warns. "Ultimately what's going to happen in Europe is going to be a fiscal confederation similar to what we have over here (in the US)."
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