Wed, May 23, 2012, 2:03 AM EDT - U.S. Markets open in 7 hrs 27 mins

Put Backstops in Place and Let Greece Fail Now: Baker

A glimmer of hope emerges today after world leaders gathered in Washington, D.C. over the weekend for an annual IMF policy meeting that was dominated by talks of stemming the European debt crisis. Leaders have vowed to do whatever necessary to "maintain financial stability, restore confidence, and support growth," according to the communiqué from European officials. The commitment to find a way forward exists, but the means of getting there are still largely under debate.

Much of the focus right now is how to use and whether to expand the Eurozone's rescue fund —the European Financial Stability Facility or EFSF. But all 17 Eurozone nations would have to approve an expansion; a challenge within itself.

"Psychologically, I'm not sure a lot of Americans realize what such a big difference in personalities all these countries have," says British-born, but US-based hedge fund manager Simon Baker of Baker Avenue Asset management. He points to a trifecta of hurdles before more funds could be pumped into the EFSF: the psychology of the people, the troika (officials from the European Commission, European Central Bank, & IMF), and local politicians throughout the various countries.

What seems to be gaining most steam as a reported by The London Telegraph, is a deal costing up to 2-Trillion Euros that would set up a firewall around Greece, Ireland, and Portugal to prevent contagion to larger nations —namely Italy and Spain- by shoring up the most at-risk European banks, if and when Greece does default.

"It's inevitable that Greece will default. There's a difference in the countries over there between being illiquid and insolvent. Greece is insolvent; Italy and Spain you could argue are illiquid," Baker says.

And they're becoming more illiquid according to Breakout's Jeff Macke. "It's the essence of the Greek default… they've got capital requirements. If they admit that Greek debt is worthless, which by the way it is, at that point, they need to fix their balance sheets because their assets will go down to nothing," Macke explains.

Bottom line, "put the backstops in place right now and allow Greece to fail in an orderly way and recapitalize… the alternative to it failing, is disaster over there in Europe. It really is, you just can't imagine it," Baker warns. "Ultimately what's going to happen in Europe is going to be a fiscal confederation similar to what we have over here (in the US)."

Should European leaders allow Greece to default? Let us know what you think in the comment section below.

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175 comments

  • Kenneth L  •  7 months ago
    The Domino Effect Begins.....Greece then....Italy.....Portugal.....

    .Great Depression 21st Century EU collapses even when China pours Billions of Dollars trying to support the Euro.
    • frankmargel.com 7 months ago
      The domino effect is gentle and has been previously prognosticed for severla years now. Compare that to the tidal wave of Bear market depressions on deck now. The bailout schemes fail, debt grows exponentially, food shortages, trade wars, Chinese inflation and unrest, WW 3! Thanks Ken, thumbs up! Four more years of "flyboy economics"? Risky...!
  • FC  •  7 months ago
    Our politicians didn't learn from Japan's real estate bubble, subsequent collapse, and lost decade. They repeated the mistake with bad policy and compounded it. Will they learn from the danger of rapacious government employee unions and what they have done to Greece? I doubt it. The only reason for such "unions" is to elect enabling politicians so the unions can continue their rape of the taxpayer. What's going to change that?
    • A Yahoo! User 7 months ago
      Japan's recession has very different causes, and they still are cash heavy unlike the wonderful union-free USA.
    • masterzvoice 7 months ago
      Oh they learned alright. This is deliberately being orchestrated by the banksters themselves.

      The goal is one world currency and a government to go along with it.
  • NICK  •  7 months ago
    I am a 100% Greek living and working always in Greece, running a very high quality honest business, with hard work from 9am to 11 pm for many years. The problems here since 30 years now have been the enormous costy and unproductive soviet-like state, the cost of buildings, the lack of liquidity and lack of consumption (profit and consumption are forbidden words in our market). Lately private sector has been invaded with taxes and now we are all seriously burning money. Sosialistic goverment hides very well the greek secret: In the private sector people work very hard they earn a little and they are invaded with taxes and in the public sector we have the most privileged (working) people of the world, they are a hell of a lot, they take a lot of money they don't even go to their offices and they don't face any risk and they are in these positions only because they vote for PASOK the soviet like populistic party. We in the private sector we DO NOT WANT THE IMF and the EU to give money to Greece. This money is wasted and goes only to salaries of the lazy people in the public sector that gov is cheating and instead of firing is hiring. Now the Countries that seriously want to help Greece with the money of their taxpayers the found out that Greece is cheating and they are pressing the gov and they do very well. Please do not give any more money to Greece, let the lazy be unpaid, we can so recontructure our state making it more efficient.
    • US Citizen 7 months ago
      You are lying, No Greek son has been born in last 200 years who has worked 10 hours & day. you are making this to just highlight Greece Problem .
    • NICK 7 months ago
      I am telling you the truth. Most of the private sector are very hard workers with little money, they struggle to survive, just let anybody who visit Greece to see how small private and independent businesses function. We are the milk cow which is dying.
      Please save us, don't give anymore money to Greece, better give it to the starving people in the Africa Horn. Only if you deny help, the lazy people of the state will be unpaid like us and realize what the problem is.
    • Steal Your Face 7 months ago
      Apparently, you have never been to a Greek restaurant, US Citizen.
  • Mark  •  7 months ago
    Concur.....if planned more countries can avoid the pit fall of debt. Listen up American.....this can be us in 5 years.
    • none n 7 months ago
      "WILL" be us in 5 years.
    • T.C. 7 months ago
      Less than 5 years if they keep spending like drunken sailors.
    • American Citizen 7 months ago
      Uh...excuse me gentlemen. We are there. NOW.
  • John  •  7 months ago
    Greece had a great model -- a socialist economy in which most folks routinely tried to evade paying taxes. Couple that w/ absurdly early retirement and unsustainable entitlements, and you have an obvious recipe for disaster. Don't let them bring down the rest of Europe.
  • Fred  •  7 months ago
    Allow the inevitable to happen and stop throwing good money after bad.
    • frankmargel.com 7 months ago
      They throw notes and contracts, there is no value in greenbacks, America owes 17 trillion dollars, the United States Government is bankrupt, it's a fantasy throwing money at problems, the good ole' days... Oh my! There is no more money, it's debt, thrown at debt... Doom and gloom!
  • A Yahoo! User  •  7 months ago
    Let's keeping "investing" a simple process. If you invest money, your money is at risk and the underlying asset provides whatever return it does based on its own merits.

    Since when have investors come to EXPECT not to lose their money? LET BAD INVESTMENTS DIE!! Otherwise, someone else pays and the cycle NEVER ENDS!!!!
  • GCTIII  •  7 months ago
    Greece has defaulted 12 times in the past. What makes the EU think they will not again. The Euro is set up to help out the producing northern countries and all the time screwing the southern countries. There are no balances and this works great for the producing countries that rely on exporting to the lower countries. Well now it is time to pay the piper as they are not buying, but going belly up from consuming the northern countries products.

    Greece needs to default or their people are going to be screwed for generations. Herein lies the rub against all the souhtern countries. They must have austerity which furthers puts them in a hole as their economies are now contracting, unemployment is up and they have run out of everyone elses money. But the leaders of EU will keep dumping good money after bad. Afterall they are spending other peoples money, pilfering the pocketbooks of millions of good citizens.
  • Barry M  •  7 months ago
    Trillions to bail out Greece?? Something is very wrong--The Greeks really screwed the Germans??
  • Rick  •  7 months ago
    Amazing how we can tell other countries how to fix their financial problems and have no clue how to fix ours.
  • john  •  7 months ago
    I agree 100%. The other euro nations are weakening their positions by continuing to throw Greece lifelines. Let the inevitable happen and move on.

    "Put Backstops in Place and Let Greece Fail Now: Baker"
  • Ivan  •  7 months ago
    There isn't really another alternative.
    However, Greece's Euro membership should be put on hold until they can present an acceptable restructure of their development plans going forward and one year of effective and demonstrated implementation. If they fail, that means the politicians and the population of Greece don't want to be part of the Euro and their membership should be cancelled.
  • Brightboy  •  7 months ago
    Let Greece default. Greece should abandon the euro and start printing Drachmas.
  • Philico  •  7 months ago
    If Greece is kicked out of the Euro and back to Drachma it will be good for Greece, since it will be able to devalue its currency significantly to meet its obligations and hopefully avoid default. The cost of such an action will be passed to its creditors, mainly the German and French banks who act as primary loan providers but also US and UK banks as secondary. Even if this happens, it will not improve the situation of the rest of the ailing countries such as Portugal, Ireland and Spain. This is because 1. the cost of funding the shift from Euro to Drachma will still be absorbed by EU at the cost of 200bn+ Euros in order to shore up the banks who will take up the losses arising from the inevitable Drachma devaluation and 2. Industrial output is falling in nations like Germany signalling that a recession is in the making that will make the situation of the rest of the ailing counties even worse.
  • Narsi  •  7 months ago
    Greece - Think Argentina, think Brazil - not Zimbabwe. Pain for a while but you will get back.
  • Js-thoughts  •  7 months ago
    They need to find a way for countries to default. It is Greece now but it should be a warning to others not to get themselves into this situation. Any time one can act irresponsibly and expect someone else to bail you out it is inevitable that irresponsible behavior will get you into the kind of trouble that Greece is in now.
  • ƒ  •  7 months ago
    Screw the speculating banks, too.
  • Mmmm  •  7 months ago
    Please be advised, there ARE NO "backstops".
  • ƒ  •  7 months ago
    Who will bail out the bailers?
  • Art  •  7 months ago
    As long as Goldman Sachs doesn't suffer any losses in the process the IMF can do whatever it wants.

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