After a four year rally and huge move already in 2013, stocks are finally running out of steam according to Brian Sozzi, chief equities analyst at NBG Productions. In the attached video, Sozzi explains why this market is fatigued and lays out his 3 signs that it's ready to pause, at best, and maybe even fall into a full-blown correction.
1. Domestic Economic Message is Bad
Corporate America has been given a pass for weak growth. Hurricane Sandy, the fiscal cliff, taxes and sequestration are all being tossed around as excuses for a weak earnings period and stagnant economic data.
GDP printed negative in the 4th quarter of last year. Estimates for when the next leg of an economic recovery might start are being pushed back even further. People may not be listening, but Sozzi says the data is talking.
If the U.S. data is bad then what's happening in Europe is a disaster. The UK is in a recession, Germany continues to struggle and the EU consumer is flailing. Companies like Ford (F) have seen their European divisions all but collapse.
None of it matters. Investors are making the mistake of thinking the bad news is "priced in." Sozzi says the market is simply ignoring what it doesn't want to hear. At least for now.
3. Upside Scenarios are priced in
"The market has front-run any data," Sozzi howls. Multiple expansion rather than organic growth is driving stocks higher. That means the market is getting more expensive into the teeth of apparently flagging fundamentals.
Any one of Sozzi's points would be a problem for stocks. Taken together it's three strikes and out for bulls. As far as Sozzi is concerned, this market is fatigued. The rally will end in tears and the market's eyes are already welling up.