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Silver: The Smart Money Gets Bearish

The sharpest rallies are propelled by the blood of those shooting against them. Whether it's the Internet, housing or RCA in 1928, buyers in the waning stages of a bubble are equal parts latecomers chasing the party and shorts being forced to capitulate by covering. As being "early" is exactly the same as being "wrong" in the trading world, ours is not to say whether it's the chasers or burned shorts that are the dumber money. But the battle lines are being drawn.

Which brings us to the commodity rally still in full swing. In the past two years silver is up from a 12-handle to new all-time highs over $40 oz. Goldman Sachs (GS) and all the other cool kids are looking for a sharp pullback. Of course there is a not-at-all fine distinction between taking profits and putting your money on a short side bet. One trader this week made just that bet by wagering $1 million on July SLV puts over 35% out of the money.

We brought in Interactive Brokers' Senior Market Analyst Andrew Wilkinson to help us make sense of the put position.

"It's actually a very well-timed, very inexpensive wager on the price of silver falling," says Wilkinson. "Plenty of smart money [read: the cool kids] is betting on the commodity rally ending."

How is a million buck bet inexpensive? For one thing, a million bucks isn't what it used to be. For another, as Wilkinson notes, it was a "low Delta trade." In English, that means you can buy a whole stack of option paper for a relatively low price. The unknown silver bear only paid 10 cents a contract at a relatively low volatility. As a result, the trader doesn't actually need to fall 37% by July to make money. Instead the put buyer just needs other traders to think silver might drop that steeply. Wilkinson observes that the put buyer's contracts were trading for 20 cents the day after the million-dollar trade, giving the bear a double on paper.

Putting it all together, we're getting into the most interesting part of any explosive rally -- the part when skeptics start putting their money where their mouth is. Will history judge the current commodities rally as overdue or overdone? Much depends on the next few months. Precious and semi-precious metals aren't generally "supposed" to move in lockstep, as has been the case in recent years. History suggests something's gotta give in commodities or stocks. Will silver and stocks diverge, rally together or get dumped in a heap?

Place your bets or watch from afar; either way the commodity rally is setting up as very interesting theater.

We want to know what you think. Write to us at Breakoutcrew@yahoo.com.

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36 comments

  • Tups  •  1 year 1 month ago
    You forgot to mention that someone sold the options.
    • GreenTeeth 1 year 1 month ago
      $1mil is nothing to the big boys, especially if you are at risk of loosing many millions if you have to cover a huge short in sliver.....
    • Jeff Macke 1 year 1 month ago
      A collection of somebodies sold the options though I agree with the basic idea.
  • Ted  •  1 year 1 month ago
    This is hilarious... I been in silver since single digits ($6-8).... and the media is STILL advising people to NOT buy silver... hahahahahahaha!
    The talking heads on CNBC have been calling silver a bubble since $20

    When the media finally gets bullish on silver, THEN and ONLY THEN it will be time to sell
    • Jeff Macke 1 year 1 month ago
      I've been long gold since Silver was below $20.

      Does that make it time to sell? I get confused on whether or not I should do the opposite of whatever I say, now that I'm in media.

      For those so inclined to shoot against me, that means you need to short crude and gold in size until I tell you I'm bearish.

      Best of luck!

      Macke
    • everfoxy 1 year 1 month ago
      The media sounded bullish on Silver today. Is it time to sell?
    • Jeff Macke 1 year 1 month ago
      Hard to say, ever foxy. I'm long the metals and called the put buyer crazy yet got shelled in all kinds of ways. Being in the media and a trader I sort of live in confusion as to whether or not I should be shorting myself constantly...
  • Cautious  •  1 year 1 month ago
    "Plenty of smart money [read: the cool kids] is betting on the commodity rally ending."
    Really? Goldman, et al, have a problem. It's true that they are the gorilla and I am just an ant. But there are a lot of us ants. A LOT. We bought silver back in the dark days of $8 silver because finally realized just how screwed the economy was. We don't believe in this "recovery" because we can clearly see that nothing has changed since 2006. Obama = Bush III. I'm up 5x in 3 years on silver, but wouldn't even think about converting that into fiat currency until real change happens. And change will come, but it's probably gonna be very unpleasant. Sorry for the long article -- entitle mine "Silver - The Seriously Smart Money Gets Very Long".
    • Jeff Macke 1 year 1 month ago
      A). Take it from me, the whole "I'm smarter and richer than you" angle on these posts is a dead-end. There's always someone smarter and richer than you. Or me. Your book is your book. I have to disclose bc I'm in public.... If I didn't have to I never, ever, would.

      B). Nothing in politics or dc ever changes. We've been on this absurd spending path pretty much since we cracked ground on the Hoover dam. You're right politically but it's a side point to your trade

      C). I don't disagree with your premise and ive been long gold for a long time (wish I woulda done silver as well!). But we're not 37% closer to the day od reckoning thane were on Jan 1st.

      D). My advice, for what it's worth, is to take/ protect at least some of your gains. I have no agenda beyond helping ppl make money (ppl making money will continue to watch the show and tell their friends).

      E). I don't doubt for a second you're smart. Institutions classify themselves as "smart money". That's what the headline means
    • Overlord 1 year 1 month ago
      Jeff,

      I was going to give you a thumbs down but you are essentially right on all your points except for B where honestly you are partially correct(IMHO). The overspending by DC will lead to the collapse of the $ which will benefit all PM.
    • Macke 1 year 1 month ago
      Overlord...

      LOVE the Avatar! I'll take 3 outta 4 from Dr. Evil any day! And I pretty much agree w/ both of us on B. The prob on betting against the dollar is that it's the classic "remain irrational longer than you/me/anyone unable to print money can remain solvent".

      Thanks for watching and reading!

      Macke
  • Alex  •  1 year 1 month ago
    1st, It's kind of amazing the coverage that this $1M bet is getting.. if I made that bet I would be selling selling selling those 100,000 contracts, I haven't seen the volume but no doubt the buyer is already unloading his position. It's almost as if the media is trying to get us to sell...

    2nd, You just can't take this article seriously for 2 reasons. 1) "[read: the cool kids]" 2) "In the past two years silver is up from a 12-handle to new all-time highs over $40 oz." Anyone who knows how to use google can find out that the highest closing price for silver was $49.45 and it occurred on Jan 18, 1980.
    • Jeff Macke 1 year 1 month ago
      1. My bad on Silver's all time high.

      2. "The cool kids" comment was ironic distancing labeling of the Goldman culture of being the self-declared brightest and best.

      3. I called the person who bought the puts "crazy" in a variety of ways at the top of the interview

      4. You're obviously taking this article very seriously indeed.
    • Kerry 1 year 1 month ago
      I thought the all time high was $150 !!!
  • Rock Solid Truth  •  1 year 1 month ago
    All a simple function of everyone unloading dollars, too many in the system, stocka metals and commodities are the short safe bet for earning during the volatility. Self feeding. Kapan selling dollars to get yen, Saudi Arabia and OPEC selling dollars to insure they don't lose their sudden windfall from this bonus $110 oil, everyone selling treasuries, and of course China selling dollars to diversify more quickly as their foreign reserves dollar number skyrockets from the collapsing dollar exchange value. Of course metals will continue to do good. As will stocks and all commodities. Self propelling.
  • Gerald  •  1 year 1 month ago
    Commodities will keep going up. Sure, some people will take profits, but the trend will continue to march upwards when only lip service is paid towards resolving budget issues and the labor market continues to wan. I expect silver to quadruple as long as Congress continues to drive the U.S. economy's short bus off a cliff. Good clip, keep up the good work.
  • Yahoo!  •  1 year 1 month ago
    What a joke this article is! The bankers are naked short 7 Billion ounces of silver. It would take them 5 years to cover even if no one else bid. The Comex will default. JP Morgan will go bankrupt, and SLV will implode because it has no real silver.

    Buy physical silver! Eat a banker!
    • NoQuit 1 year 1 month ago
      please explain regading the quote you made...

      "The bankers are naked short 7 Billion ounces of silver. It would take them 5 years to cover even if no one else bid."

      From what source did you get this information?
    • A Yahoo! User 1 year 1 month ago
      that would be 1.4 million contract. open interest is around 55,000
  • Ralph  •  1 year 1 month ago
    or - SLV can collapse because it has no real silver while the actual POS keeps going up... maybe this is what this trader has inside knowledge of.
  • Frank  •  1 year 1 month ago
    I don't know if silver will go up or down, but who would trust Goldman Sachs? I typically use them as a contra-indicator.
    And to call them "cool kids?" Thanks, but no thanks, I don't need any advise from the "cool kids."
  • JustinT  •  1 year 1 month ago
    Fool me (and my heritage) once, shame on you. Fool me (and my heritage) twice, shame on me (us).

    Scare tactics and mouse clicks are the tools of the trade for market makers and manipulators. ���Run, run, run... Sell, sell, sell... Short, short, short...��� and lastly, ���Bail, bail, bail me out, please...��� says the seriously squeezed and TOO-BIG-TO-FAIL bullion banks sitting on NAKED SHORTS.

    Don't get mad, get even. Read between the lines and PROFIT!... Buy and demand physical gold & silver. Nothing will boost your wealth better than squeezing BIG GOVERNMENT and CENTRAL BANKS where it counts, in their shorts!

    Meanwhile, rest assured��� (i) fundamentals remain the same and will not change anytime soon, (ii) industrial demand and new uses for silver continues to increase, (iii) money presses continue operating 24/7, (iv) [Fill-in-the-blank with whatever], and (v) demand for physical Gold and Silver is soaring by smart wealth.
  • Professor Ron Paul  •  1 year 1 month ago
    The talking heads don't think beyond their weekly TV ratings. So listen to them at your peril. 99% of these morons missed the real estate bubble, and now they are all on the bandwagon ready to "call the next bubble", silver, gold, commodities, etc.
    but few are calling the collapse of the dollar. These folks are pathetic, they pretend they give us such great insight, like "we will perhaps see a correction".
    They don't even have the guts to leave out the "perhaps". Ha, they should get a real job, all of them!
  • Robert C  •  1 year 1 month ago
    You hit the nail on the head Cautious! Neither Gold nor silver will change it's upward trend without real change in our governments spending. This is the only way to show the rest of the world that we are serious about getting our financial house in order. China is pulling back from buying our Treasuries, and even offloading small amounts under the radar, which is forcing our government to purchase them! Lets face it... Fiscal responsibility is really only a dream as we just saw with the most recent budget deal. No politician, Democrat or Republican, is going to step up and make the kind of cuts that really need to be made without being labeled a middle class job killer. With no "Real" cuts to speak of in the most recent budget, and an almost guaranteed increase in the debt ceiling coming, do we really think people are going to gain faith in the paper currency that we are overprinting? I say buy plenty of Treasuries now so you won't run out of toilet paper tomorrow! Don't get me wrong here... This is still the GREATEST nation in the world! We just have to have the right leaders in place to make the tough decisions that will get us back on track.
  • wmd  •  1 year 1 month ago
    i sold some put options today too only it didnt make national news
  • Frank  •  1 year 1 month ago
    "A sharp pullback" - Oh, I see, a sharp pullback means we should follow the cool kids and sell. Thank you so much GS for providing your expensive guidance to all us peasants. It's like getting investment advise from George Soros when he speaks publicly, it's all calculated to generate a certain response from the masses.
    Most of us have been investing for years and are well acquianted with pullbacks, be they sharp or not so sharp. Pullbacks are a necessary part of the markets at work.
  • robert  •  1 year 1 month ago
    $40 all time high? Didn't the Hunt brothers get it near $50 in the Eighties?
  • Joe Panda  •  1 year 1 month ago
    We are raising our debt limit, the dollar going lower ( presses all ahead full) and silver and gold will continue upward. Might be a small correction but the direction is to the moon.
  • Fillup  •  1 year 1 month ago
    Who is the smarter Kevin Bass or Jeff Macke? Sorry Jeff have you read the Saturday papers and the University of Texas thing and the $1 billion dollar purchase of gold. This $1 billion dollars better be smart money.
  • K  •  1 year 1 month ago
    "The stock market is dragging along commodities"?!?!?? Are you kidding me! Mathematics say otherwise. Printing more money is the cause of both going up.
  • Len  •  1 year 1 month ago
    Theredfoliot, sorry it took a couple minutes but this tells where the silver is kept:
    Barclays Global Investors International, Inc.is the sponsor of the trust, The Bank of New York is the trustee of the trust, and JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A.,London branch, is the custodian of the trust.
    The iShares are backed by silver, identified on the custodian���s books in allocated and unallocated
    accounts on behalf of the trust and held by the custodian in England and other locations that may be
    authorized in the future.
  • JustinT  •  1 year 1 month ago
    At $11, I nervously held on and watched it 'correct' to $9.

    At $19, I nervously held on and watched it 'correct' to $15.

    At $32, I held out for the 20% correction I "knew" was coming. Ooops...

    Meanwhile, (i) there is no sign that fundamentals have changed or will change anytime soon, (ii) new uses and industrial demand for silver continues to increase, (iii) money presses continue operating 24/7 to prop up collapsing fiat currencies, (iv) [Fill-in-the-blank with whatever], and (v) demand for and deliver of physical Gold and Silver continues to soar by persons wishing to preserve their wealth.

    Still, scare tactics and mouse clicks are putty in the hands of market makers. Run, run, run... Short, short, short... Sell, sell, sell... Bail, bail, bail... says the seriously squeezed bullion banks and TOO-BIG-TO-FAIL banks sitting on NAKED SHORTS.

    Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.

    Friends and neighbors, don't get mad, get even... Thank and profit from BIG GOVERNMENT and CENTRAL BANKS. Demand and take delivery of physical gold & silver. Nothing will boost the value of your investment better than squeezing them where it counts, in their shorts!

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