"Let your winners run."
Four little word summing up one of the greatest challenges in investing. This has been particularly true during the 2012 rally which has done nothing but gain steam in either spite of, or because of, the drumbeat of brutal fundamental news.
Which is one of the reasons it's worthwhile to pay attention to technicals. A graph cares not about your fears, woes and nascent obsession with German Chancellor Angela Merkel.
Katie Stockton, chief market technician with MKM Partners, says the S&P 500's ability to move over 1,370 "decisively" last week has set the stage for a move at least to 1,440 and perhaps even as high as 1,525 by year end. The call comes with the one caveat that it's "pending confirmation of a strong close this week."
Confirmation means the tape doesn't close back below the old resistance, which is now support. Close below there and we're back in the chopping to and fro between 1,340 and 1,370. Only a close below that 1,340 line would represent the first "chink the armor" for the rally as far as Stockton sees it.
If you do want to trim some profits here, and I can't say that I blame you, the Technician suggests the risk-on trade is still in play for a place to put new money. "The defensive sector is the one that will under perform for this year," she says.
An overbought market can stay that way for much longer than those shorting it tend to believe. You can scoff, argue against it, or call it names but "the right side of the market is to be bullish right now," notes Stockton; at least until we break below 1,340. That's her view and she's sticking to it.
We want to know what your view is. Are you letting gains run, taking it off the table or buying puts at every opportunity? Let us know either in the space below or Tweet me @Jeffmacke