Stocks Face Short-Term Risks Before Decent 2nd Half: Merriman

All the financial models fail to include one crucial factor: Corruption.

Bailouts, CEOs making short-term decisions for their benefit instead of the stockholders, artificially low Fed interest rates, FNMA & GNMA losses as bad loans hit the wall, politicians protecting contributors, Countrywide, Indymac, Madoff, repeal of Glass-Steagall, Bear-Stearns, AIG, Lehman, Healthcare and exemptions for cronies, banks continue to fail, QE1, QE2, etc.

The problem is not retail investor sentiment.

I'm not convinced its only a pull back, I don't believe earnings are going to be so good going forward. If we are having a global slowdown it will hurt the DOW as most of the companies making great profits are companies that are making most of their money abroad. Revenues will stop growing again in a slowdown as will US manufacturing. I don't believe we really even made a sustainable recovery and expansion in the US. Our GDP slowed down to 1.8% last quarter and looks to slowdown more this quarter. This is with 3 wars and QEII for stimulus. I just can't see the driver to sustain our growth. Capital and Jobs are still leaving the US, our housing is still dropping in price and is expected to continue dropping at least into next year, employment is picking up, but the quality of jobs isn't very good, our banks have millions of home in foreclosure and have yet to write down their losses, all government is cutting back, that means less spending now even if it is good in the long run, the consumer is still buying only what they need and is having trouble doing that with gas and food prices up so much (perhaps moderating now) and most middle class Americans losing income over time. The only positive is the dollar gaining value, but its still down so much it hurts. Again, what's the driver for growth in the US?

Bottomline is that we are so weak financially, thanks to the POS taking head politicians, someone overseas sneezes and our markets throw up. We need these fools out of office in a hurry folks, its not working.

So, what this guy is saying is: Hey Retail Investor please come back so we can hose you again like we did in 2000 and 2008... Note nobody talks about Japan, Euro Debt and the other ugly stuff going around.

So lemme see if I understand this man. He's saying that the average Joe and Jane should stay out of stocks, because stocks are fairly priced. And that when the average citizen finally does get in, it usualy means that the market has topped-out, is over priced and that's when the professionals need to take the money and run.

Wow. Thanks for letting us know that we are not supposed to make money.

It's look like sell in May and come back on Saint Ledger Day..........

A decent second half? Are you kidding? The second half is going to be so chock full of economic and political propaganda it will boggle the mind!
Who knows what new deception the fed and little Timmy will dream up to continue the stock market manipulation that exists as we speak?

Anyone besides me wonder why the vix is so quiet these days?

The downside has been made so very clear to the 'little guy' retail investor in the past few years. No more cash-out home equity loans, and people are afraid for their current cashflow/employment. Future returns and "investment" (yes, parentheticals sometimes indicate a mocking sentiment so read it however you choose) are not a priority to regular people.

Sorry to break it to you this way, Wall Street and media talking heads. Sentiment is going to be down for awhile, better pack a lunch.

This is what happens,when you do away with any REAL jobs,enslave your working class,and make unpaid for WARS your biggest export! Consumers arent buying much,because they dont HAVE anything! Bernanke will keep PRINTING dollars,untill other countries no longer recognize the dollar as a national currency.

It's every fund manager's goal to have everyone all-in stocks all the time. They don't make money when you're out. Articles like this are very self-serving. By stocks now at your own peril.

Just as any other time in history, buy value and in the long run it will be ok. Value determined by steady long term earnings and consistent dividend yields.

The problem right now is Europe. These Socialist Countries are simply running out of other peoples money to keep their Government Cheese flowing. Unless the Countries make some MAJOR CONCESSIONS which if you look at Greece are not, then these problems are just going to compound further. Germany and France can only bail out so many countries before they start saying "The Hell with this." Dismiss these weaker countries from the European Union and let them default and FORCE these countries to make changes. Otherwise they are going to just continue to burn through Euros as fast as the European Union can print them. The problems with the US aren't over yet either. We have certain states i.e. California, Illinois, New Jersey, Arizona etc...looking at bankruptcy also. When will these states have to be bailed out? I live in Illinois and I know for a fact that the corruption is as bad as ever. I really can't see Illinois living up to its debts. Let Illinois go bankrupt that will force these Unions to renegotiate their ridiculous pension programs to something that is a bit more fair.
As for stocks, yeah there is lots of money to made in the market as long as you are shorting everything or going long on commodities. I guess we will see.

I'm done. Burned in 2000 and in 2008. The game is rigged by Goldman and the like.

Take all this technological advantage and high-frequency trading equipment and software from big bad institutional investor and let him compete with us, retail investors, on a fair basis and we will see who is the best performer. Ordinary investors have no fear and hard feelings to be outperformed by a bigger and smarter professional. At least they can learn something when they follow a professional. But how to compete with an institutional trader or investor when his institution contols the market technological infrastructure, how to protect ourselves against abnormal trading volatility coming from quantitative program trading and electronic systems based on aggressive logarithmic market tracking? If the market was not such computerized, the return potential for retail investors would be much more attractive. The major issue is how to withstand the electronic culture of the market these days.

Oh yeah! The fund manager says, "Oh this is just a short-term weakness and stocks will be coming back soon." Yeah, riiight. Get your money into his fund right away while the market is down so that you can benefit from the next upturn. Yeah, riiight. It's all just "headline risk" -- there's no real underlying fundamentals like the European credit markets about to crash -- just like it was all "headline risk" in the news reports just before the Amercian credit markets crashed in 2008. Yeah, riiight.

Yeah I am pretty sure Linked in IPO isn't going to bring retail investors back. And judging by moronic cynical comments on Yahoo Finance, I am not sure the retail investor will ever come back. Just as well those morons who's concept of investing is giving your money to mutual funds or buying and holding till BK have no business in stocks ever.

Stock market manipulation,before market opens trading and after market trading are tools for the rich to get more wealth,the little guy doesn"t have a chance! So keep on dreaming about the 2nd half of the year,Inflation and Congress will keep us in worse shape.Stop corporate welfare,Tax the rich to cut the deficit.

canary in the coal mine.... INDIA... is choking for air.

India is not pegged to the dollar, but anyone who calls for customer service to a "fortune 500" company has spoke with an outsourced job holder in India.

Pull up this chart... 5yr ^BSESN (india index_ compare to ^HSI (hong kong) - they nearly trace the line... then add a comparison to S & P 500... then add 233day and 377day moving averages (both fib numbers)... oops, look out below!

Is there ever a time when stocks do NOT face short term risks?

don't listen to anything these idiots tell you, for they are the reason we owe over 14 trillion. do just the opposite of what they say and become rich. by the way president buckwheat wants to pay down our debt at 400 billion a year. if that is the case it will take about 375 years to become debt free, assuming these same folks can stay on budget. my question is who is in charge. while the world is burning to the ground our president is off to irland and kenya to check out his roots. i wonder how much this will cost the us tax payer.