Of all the trends and transitions facing investors right now, the reality of rising bond yields has taken center stage and is the dominant factor in all capital markets. But for every basis point the 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) ticks up, there's a concern within trading circles that it's happening too fast; that the six-week move from 1.6% to 2.6% will cause economic disruptions that go well beyond housing and mortgages.
"If we do increase rates too quickly, it will hold stocks back," says Bill Baruch, market strategist at iiTrader in the attached video. "But I think we could see the 30-year rate increase by about a percent by the end of the year (from 3.5% to 4.5%)."
If that happens, Baruch says it would represent about a $12,000 move per $100,000 contract, pointing out that it only requires about a $3,500 initial margin deposit to play. It is also why he is betting that bond yields are going to continue to rise.
"I think this is the mother of all shorts," he says, "and it's not going to just be this year. It's going to keep going. This could be five years out so you want to get in here."
He is not the first to call for the end of the 20-plus year bull market in bonds, but he is among a minority of investors who also want to be long stocks at the same time.
"I see (interest) rates and equities moving together hand in hand," he says, "to our year end target of 1757 ((on the S&P 500 (^GSPC))."
To be fair, he says this is not a straight-line call and is certain it will be volatile and not something where you can just ''sit blindly," but he also thinks it's an opportunity that is not going to last.
"If we get an uptick in jobs and a downtick in the unemployment rate, this is going to be game-on for equities," he says, "and believe me, you're not going to have a chance to jump in then, and you're not going to have a chance to buy rates and sell bonds at the point either."