Wed, May 23, 2012, 4:56 PM EDT - U.S. Markets closed

Time to Start Playing a Housing Turnaround?

Stand-up comedians know how hard it is to work a tough crowd. Today Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, didn't exactly work the crowd with his fresh material at the National Association of Home Builders convention in Orlando.

In a carefully worded address to perhaps the most beleaguered trade group in the nation, the Fed chief reiterated concerns about a frustratingly slow recovery, an imbalance of supply and demand, an overhanging foreclosure problem, tighter lending standards, and high unemployment.

Bernanke summed up his speech with the following statement:

"We need to continue to develop and implement. policies that will help the housing sector get back on its feet. No single solution will be sufficient. But sustained efforts to address the many interlocking factors holding back the housing market will pay dividends in the long run."

Despite a dearth of new fixes for the housing industry, the home builders are enjoying a boom of sorts in the stock market, where some barometers have recently surged to four-year highs.

In the attached video, Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott explains that the recent spike in funds he recommends, like the Dow Jones Construction Fund (ITB) or the Home builders Trust (XHB), is linked to record low inventories and modest improvement on the jobs front.

Since September, private payrolls have grown by an average of 202,000 a month. While that may be lower than what many would like to see, it's good enough to give investors like Luschini confidence that the "underpinnings of stabilization" are happening in housing.

It may take another 6 to 9 months before the housing trend is as visible and acknowledged as the improvement in employment currently is, but the believers in builders are buying ahead of the news.

So far, the construction and builders trade has been unbelievably profitable, but could prove to be equally vulnerable if the jobs-led recovery theme turns out to be built on a foundation of sand.

Do you think housing has bottomed out yet or do you need to see more proof before buying into the builders? Let us know in the comment section below.

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72 comments

  • simple_simon_over  •  Cheyenne, Wyoming  •  3 months ago
    Just wait until higher interest rates come along! IT will take 2 DECADES before we see a turnaround. Baby boomers are downsizing and young people can't get a good job to save their lives. More pump and dump #$%$ from the crooks in NYC!
    • Joey Anthony 3 months ago
      no other name from them, crooks, and big bonuses for all that come up with new schemes to bring revenue into the banking industry.
    • Scott Straley 3 months ago
      I love that term, "pump & dump"... it's the perfect metaphor for financier #$%$ Let's look at it simply, Economics101... housing supply is VERY high, demand is steady to low (in most markets)... secondly, most of the demand these days is coming from investors. Rental demand, however, is HUUUGE (insert Paris Hilton accent here). Rents are going up, investors are buying up inventory at discounted prices (short sales and/or foreclousre purcahses bought by investors, to the tune of 70%, discounted from 2004-07 purchase prices, run rampant). Get in the game at lower pricing-points, and maybe you can make some money in housing -however, tenants trash your properties & after you spend 10-30K fixing up your affordable investment property, you'll be lucky to get your investment back after it's been occupied by a tenant -should you decide to sell). Own enough properties and you can have some positive cash flow, hence investors gobbling up properties. New construction is an awful investment, in my humble opinion. Those homes located further from employment centers built on vacant land, never improved, won't see even moderate appreciation b/c they'll be competing against new construction across the street. New construction, condos for example, in major urban areas often aren't eligible for conventional financing due to high vacancy rates within their development/bldg. And don't forget, fuel costs to travel to & from work won't be going down, long term, anytime soon... heating & cooling costs for "bigger", larger, homes will only continue to rise decreasing demand for a McMansion. Those who are thinking about buying, just my opinion, should buy close to major highways, buy close to commuter trains, buy in areas with gainful employment, and don't buy "too much house", as costs for heating & cooling will continue to spike as fossil fuels are finite -decreasing a property's marketability, long term. Just my two cents. We're SO FAR from being in "the clear" on housing, it's not even funny. Bring back manufacturing to the U.S., and maybe we can see a genuine rebound in housing. Also, remember most of the people who bought during the "bubble" were employed in the housing market in some capacity (be it a bricklayer, construction worker, home inspector, real estate agent, electrician, loan officer, title company clerk, et.)... we need real jobs in the U.S., not "pump & dump" paper pushers, or "jobs" at the local Wal-Mart. How can we see growth in an economy where we create NOTHING and are all middle-men? (I suppose South America & Russia can be exploited yet, like we've already done to China...hmmm). And for those whose politics lean far to the right, fans of Ayn Rand & the invisible hand, keep in mind if it wasn't for "traffic lights", i.e., rules & regulations, we'd have chaos on our streets & thoroughfares... we do need rules, government, legislation... a lack of transparency in the governing of derivative markets would be an excellent example of "less government" not equating to "more". "The American Dream" of owning a home is fastly becoming exactly that, a "dream". Sorry to be a Debbie Downer, I do have hope... just not yet!
    • OlLady 3 months ago
      Crooks in NYC? What about DC. They are all in cahoots.
  • John  •  3 months ago
    More new construction won't fix housing prices. There's still too much inventory.
  • Al  •  Beverly Hills, California  •  3 months ago
    Every day for the last 10 years, I get an email from some realtor "Now is the time to buy a home" "There has never been a better time to buy".
    • Sundar 3 months ago
      Only this time it is true (in certain markets). In suburban Atlanta or in Texas, you can buy a single family home for $35K and rent it for $800. So even if the house price goes to zero, you will still be ahead in about 5 years. In south Chicago, you can pick up a duplex for $60K and collect $1800 per month in rent. I don't see a huge risk in these..
    • marine 3 months ago
      ANY DAY IS A GOOD DAY TO BUY A HOUSE TODAY SINCE NO ONE'S BUYING HOUSES NO MORE, THANKS TO THE BANKS.
    • JohnW 3 months ago
      Sundar: One of my rentals in Dallas is renting for $800 and is worth between 35-45k. Problem is I bought it for 65k back in 2004....
  • Andrew  •  Tampa, Florida  •  3 months ago
    Who the hell do the jerks walking around the White House think they are getting a retirement after only serving one term lets talk about cut backs and make the congress do 20 to 30 years like the rest of us before they can get a retirement check and I think there checks are all over 100,000.00 thats #$%$
  • Miss Poo  •  Atlanta, Georgia  •  3 months ago
    Its suppy and demand. We currently have a HUGE supply - and very low demand. Also - bankers are rarely letting go of the very low rates.
  • Long_Term_Thinker  •  3 months ago
    Paaahhlleeeezze........anybody look at their property tax bills lately? Remember when the reason that they went up was because of property value? Wonder why they are not dropping? The ever-expanding public sector job security w/o competition in taking its toll.
    • BryanM 3 months ago
      Pension fund guarantees in some cities like Providence guarantee that some firefighters will earn over $400,000 / year if they can make it to 80. So if you think your taxes are low now, think again.
  • cinna23  •  Elmhurst, Illinois  •  3 months ago
    Houses no. Apartments yes.
  • Head Ruffian  •  Richmond, Virginia  •  3 months ago
    considering there will be a huge new wave of foreclosures now that the banks paid their tribute to BO, may not be a great idea.
  • Honest John  •  3 months ago
    Are these people on drugs?? Illinois has almost 1 million homes yet to be foreclosed on.People have been living in them for 2 years at least for free.
    • Daniel 3 months ago
      Cook County has $120 Billion (yes, billion) in unfunded pension liabilities. The state is a cesspool of corruption and the taxpayer is left holding the bag. This debt DOES NOT include unfunded health benefits. This is 3x the entire state of CA. I voted with my feet and left the state. Good luck IL - you got what you deserved after 2 generations of Daley's and now you're stuck with Rohm. Jeeze, talk about a black hole of waste and corruption.
    • OlLady 3 months ago
      In Illinois, not so good. But the country is large and some areas are desirable and don't have a lot of inventory.
  • William  •  Las Vegas, Nevada  •  3 months ago
    Only the third year in a row I've heard that song, aka housing has hit bottom. With millions of foreclosures still to happen, their tune is just wishful thinking.
  • daniel  •  Traverse City, Michigan  •  3 months ago
    Realtors need to work on 3 percent commission .everyone is taking the hit
  • Big Oil is watching  •  San Diego, California  •  3 months ago
    many people are paying 6% on first mortgages and 7-8% on seconds, and cannot refi because they are upside down. If ALL mortgages were converted to 3.5% 30 year fixed, then this would solve most of the mortgage problems, and free up cash for consumer spending creating more jobs.
    • Noway 3 months ago
      But if the banks and hedge funds holding those 6% loans let you convert to 3.5% they will need to lay more staff off and get more bailout money from Bernanke!
    • Big Oil is watching 3 months ago
      Noway, I would rather take the money from the bank into the middle class consumers hand. The banks get free fed money so screw them.
    • BryanM 3 months ago
      Spoken like a true communist BIg Oil. Who cares about the personal property rights of the investors who own the bank that makes the loans to people who gambled that they could afford the loans?
  • Pinky  •  3 months ago
    Bernanke sounds more and more like a politician. Stumping in Orlando.
  • TimothyE  •  Hazelwood, Missouri  •  3 months ago
    Housing will turn around! Just be patient for another 5 to 7 years, and don't miss the boat!
    The poll should say "Resilient", "Complacent", or "Deluded"
  • Andrew  •  Tampa, Florida  •  3 months ago
    I'll tell you how smart are bankers are one guy I know bought a house at the top of the market on a loan for 300,000.00 got a 2nd and 3rd loan on top of that for 150,000.00 each now sitting on 300000.00 stayed in the home for two years rent free then left walked out and paid cash for a house, paid 148,000.00 for a 2800 sq ft and still has 152,000.00 left and smiles every day so lets keep sending our tax dollars to these guys, I forgot the bankers are smarter then what we have in Washington or are the one's in Washington smarter then the bankers
  • anarchist  •  3 months ago
    "Now is a great time to buy snake oil," said the snake oil salesman. The best case scenario is that the collapse slows down. No danger of missing an up turn.
  • BryanM  •  Wallingford, Connecticut  •  3 months ago
    Only if you are a complete #$%$ Housing will not recover until after employment recovers.
  • Jim Volstad  •  San Antonio, Texas  •  3 months ago
    Housing turnaround? Only in your typical Realtor mindset. Don't trust them. They are looking for their 6% commission.
  • mad poet  •  Belleville, Michigan  •  3 months ago
    The housing bubble was perpetrated with collusion between the banksters and a coruupt govt that allowed the banks to generate huge fee profit, with no risk. The elitists created huge wealth for themselves, and the tax payers, the middle class paid for it. These pigs should be slaughtered.
  • mad poet  •  Belleville, Michigan  •  3 months ago
    Look at a long term case-schiller housing price chart, and you will understand that housing prices are NOT going back up to previous levels in anybody's lifetime. The peak in 1885 did not bottom til the 1920 credit crisis, before the 29 market crash. Then they bounced along bottom til 1940 or so. That is 55 years!!!!! It took WWII to ramp up the economy and housing. So don't expect any real improvement til WWIII starts, then invest in housing. Lovely system we have, isn't it????

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