Breakout

Volatility ahead as ‘Big Four’ looms

Jeff Macke
Breakout

It’s a jam-packed week. You probably already knew that, but what you didn’t know was how unusually tight the news flow is going to be over the next 4 days and what it could mean for your portfolio. In the attached clip John Canally of LPL Financial lends some perspective:

“This week you have the big four. You have the FOMC meeting and the GDP Report, Thursday you get ISM, then the jobs report on Friday. On any given week one of those is a big deal. To have all four in a week is a really big deal. This is only the 9th time it’s happened since 2000, so it doesn’t happen often but when it does you tend to get some volatility.”

Canally notes that a government shutdown forestalled this event last fall. No such drama is expected to save us this week. Spice this busy news week with earnings from 139 S&P 500 (^GSPC) companies, and an almost obscene amount of sawtooth action over the last month and you have a recipe for craziness.

The last 8 times this has happened average volatility has been 20% higher than normal and the Volatility Index (^VIX) has popped by 4%. Granted these aren’t exactly staggering results but this tape hardly needs an excuse.

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Bigger picture Canally thinks dips are to be bought. “Our view for the stock market this year is still a 10 - 15% gain. It would be nice if every day was Tuesday because then you’d be up 9.5%, but if you take the longer-term view I think we’ll get through this volatile week.”

For the record the FOMC is expected to taper as usual. In addition analysts are looking for for 1% GDP growth, ISM of 54.5 and an additional 210,000 non-farm or government jobs. Anything other than that and all bets are off.

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