One of the proven strategies for success on Wall Street is to "let your winners run," which means resisting the temptation to take profits and close out a trade that is working. When it comes to global markets, few places in the world right now can claim to be working as well as Turkey (TUR). It's 60% gain over the past year has pushed it to the top of the rankings, and also landed it atop the where-in-the-world watch list for 2013.
"It's slightly more risky than the average country, and is slightly more rich (in terms of valuations)," says David Garff, President and CIO of Accuvest Global Investment Advisors in the attached video. "But because of the fantastic fundamentals and the momentum, we think that Turkey is a great opportunity" he adds.
For the record, the Turkey Fund has been going through a bit of a boom-bust cycle the past few years, falling 40% in 2011 after rising 25% in 2010.
Meanwhile, Garff tucks China (MCHI) into the second spot on his most-favored nation list, calling it ''cheap, with good fundamentals and improving momentum."
More specifically, Garff calls China "the fifth cheapest market that we follow," albeit one that also carries "elevated risk." Like many global investors, he is also optimistic about the trickle down effect that a fresh round of stimulus spending would have (should it materialize) on the underlying earnings of Chinese companies. However, if the new leadership doesn't deliver it, or it worsens an already toppy real estate market, then the risk side of this trade could swiftly come into play.
If emerging markets don't quite fit your risk profile, perhaps Garff's third choice for 2013 is a better fit - Austria (EWO). While S&P did strip it (and France) of its AAA rating a year ago, this low-risk destination is on the move, having gained 35% in five months to a 52-week high, all while paying a 3% dividend. As Garff explains, Austria (along with Germany) has the best momentum in Europe right now.
Garff's picks come via a process which ranks and rates a universe of 28 different countries that he uses as the portfolio manager of the AdvisorShares Accuvest Global Long Short ETF (AGLS) and the Global Opportunities ETF (ACCU).
Included in that list of 28 is the United States, the world's biggest and most liquid marketplace. While it's still in his firms top 10, Garff says it has recently trickled out of the top 5 on the back of deteriorating fundamentals.
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