It's a proven fact that even the biggest, baddest, most raging wildfires all start out as small manageable conflagrations that simply got out of control. Of course there are always extenuating circumstances that fan the flames and assist in the fire's growth, and in turn, make its unruly existence possible.
Something similar may have happened this morning, when the delayed and derided September jobs report was released, showing just 148,000 people found work last month.
"I think it is an absolute disaster," says Brian Sozzi, chief equity strategist at Belus Capital Advisors in the attached video, where he calls today's release a "horrifically depressing report."
As Sozzi sees it, "there's stuff going on out there in the economy that nobody is talking about." Specifically, he cites the need to listen to what companies such as Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) and Hasbro (HAS) are telling us this earnings season, and to take heed of the restructuring plans, earnings misses, and soft revenue results.
Add it all up and he's worried that the September employment data, which preceded the government shutdown, might be the tip of a much bigger iceberg of bad news ahead of us.
"I'm thinking, when I saw this number cross the tape, 'Is this the creepy peak in the jobs numbers? Can it get worse? Are we looking at a sub-100 print for the next couple months?'" Sozzi says. "Work week unchanged. No wage growth. That's not good."
Of course, the stock market is just fine with all of this, at least for the time being, as it pins the Fed to stay right where it is for the foreseeable future. But even there, Sozzi calls out the shortcomings of the market's clear cut biased for bad news.
"Do we have to root for continued Fed stimulus? Is that what the economy has become?" he asks before answering that the market is suggesting that we get more misses in early November.
While the next major data point will see the much-maligned October jobs numbers coming out November 8th, it will happen nine days after the Fed has already had to meet and react to the latest news.
"Absolutely nothing is going to happen (at the next Fed meeting)," Sozzi predicts. "They're going to realize the decelerating momentum seen in the jobs report and consumer confidence and corporate earnings. They're going to continue to do nothing, be dovish and hand it off to (freshly nominated Fed Chief Janet) Yellen and hope for a great 2014."
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