Wed, May 23, 2012, 5:04 PM EDT - U.S. Markets closed

Karabell: Where a Market Bull, Economy Bear Is Putting His Money

River Twice President, Time Magazine columnist and all around good egg Zach Karabell swung by Breakout to elaborate on his unusual economic and equity take.

Karabell told us he sees unemployment as a systemic and long-standing problem in a U.S. economy increasingly built around technological advance.

When the Obama job stimulus program ends, Zach is looking for a resumption of a decline in the unemployment rate. Ironically, one of America's strongest sectors, industrial tech, is increasing efficiency AND exacerbating the employment problem.

Turning lemons into profits, Karabell is looking to take advantage of the situation lending itself to the theme of investing in the companies making the guts of the communication age. While conceding that Cisco was his "worst investment of the past six months," Karabell still broadly likes tech as a theme, with a focus now on the "re-momentum trade" in cloud computing stocks, which he says remain as interesting as they were when they were bid up.

Take my word for it, folks: Zach is a sharp guy unafraid to offer opinions on and off the beaten path. Take a look at the clip, then head over to Time.com and gather more of the Karabell wisdom.

We want to hear from you, too. Email us at Breakoutcrew@yahoo.com.

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48 comments

  • DTT  •  1 year 1 month ago
    I agree with all he has said, its great for capital and investors but it sucks for most of the rest of the population. Wages and income for most Americans are dropping, not in large amounts but dropping all the same. Business isn't winning, it has won and most Americans are going to be poorer for it. Having said that, I believe we need to learn from the "capitalists" and investors and mimic them. We need to save and invest carefully as I don't believe we will ever have a tax code that treats wages equally with investment income. If we want to live well in the future we need to save and invest, reduce debt or better yet get rid of debt, and quit spending on "wants" we really don't need. I now the "paradox of thrift" will kick in, but we really have no choice if we want to live well in the long run. Jobs are going overseas and productivity will continue to improve even as it destroys many American's lifestyle who have worked hard but not saved. The economy is really going global and its going to continue this way. The only way Americans win in the long run is as investors, not as workers only. Our traditional safety nets of private and public pensions are being destroyed and the type of safety nets most Europeans have will never be allowed here.
    • JayCeezy 1 year 1 month ago
      The bottom 25% of (mostly small) businesses have lost. A cold assessment would call it 'Darwinism', but for the entrepreneurs and employees of these losing businesses, it is a harsh world out there.

      DTT, your observation about the paradox of thrift, and that we have "no choice" is great. Pain is coming, and nobody (especially politicians) is ready to accept it, even as it is happening.
    • STEVE 1 year 1 month ago
      JayCeezy, this is better described as the law of the jungle, and in the end EVERYONE wil lose from it.
    • Becky 1 year 1 month ago
      Farming is great...been getting farm subsidies for years from the gov. andnow prices are way up. love it.
      Bob
  • FoxNuwsRTraitors  •  1 year 1 month ago
    I agree with DTT who wrote "its great for capital and investors but it sucks for most of the rest of the population" - that's what the author was hinting at.

    If you don't see a huge surplus of labor - then you are blind. Start by listing all the products and services that you can afford to buy - but can't find anywhere - and wish someone was producing for you to buy. Look at some of the newest products that Americans are buying - iPods and iPads - all made in Asia with $1.50 per hour workers and zero American labor - and it will be $1.50 per hour labor for flat screen TVs in 2012 as production shifts from Korea and Japan to China. But there are still 400 million underemployed Chinese workers who intend to move from farms to factories in the next few decades. If you don't believe that wages and benefits will be crushed from an oversupply of labor - based on the law of supply and demand of labor - then you don't know basic economics. If you haven't noticed that all the increase in wealth in this country in past 2 decades has gone to capital investments - that income from labor has declined right alongside middle class wealth - then you haven't been paying attention.
    • STEVE 1 year 1 month ago
      And only when greed is conquered will all of this end.
  • michaelr  •  1 year 1 month ago
    we probably have an excess of unskilled labor and need educated modern workers,but how can we get them now without waiting 20 years? DC and wall st don't know how bad things can get and don't want to know;they're too busy with their own futures and wealth not realizing that you can't separate the workers from the bosses like in 1910.If the wealth gap is too great,you get exploitation,violence,oppression and a kind of slavery.I guess the bosses think they can leave with their wealth and move to a safe haven if it gets so bad in the US. Answers are coming due and the public will ultimately demand no less. I give this bad situation another year or two before an explosion or riots in US? Then,another commission to determine the causes and remedies. Many may die of neglect or civil unrest,crimes. All of us better wake up to our urgent financial and social problems pdq so we can still save the situation.Everyone has to make bucks to live and prosper,efficient taxes are necessary,profits are required and kids must attend school and study. Maybe a few public hangings of the drug lords,billion dollar thieves,heinous criminals would help to deter high crimes? Justice and fairness for all;a lot to ask.
    • Aunt Bea 1 year 1 month ago
      I'm all for it, but start with the Fed. Geithner, Bernanke, Summers, et al should all go to prison.
    • STEVE 1 year 1 month ago
      Since when are justice and fairness a lot to ask for?
    • kennethw 1 year 1 month ago
      I think your timeline is off a bit but the outcome will be the same.
  • FoxNuwsRTraitors  •  1 year 1 month ago
    Karabell was hemming and hawing all around it - without really saying it - that the US middle class and probably the global middle class is doomed. Globalization and technology are putting the screws to American labor - American middle class labor in particular. The demand for American labor is sinking, and the law of supply and demand for American labor will lead to a much greater concentration of wealth for those with capital and much greater poverty for everyone else. We had better figure out some way to distribute wealth (and food) when capital is earning nearly all the income and labor is irrelevant and earning crumbs.

    If the Tea Party and GOP think government handouts are large now, wait a few years. 80% of the country will be needing government assistance. We are approaching something probably never seen before in human history. Even worse than czarist Russia!
    • Aunt Bea 1 year 1 month ago
      And how in the heck do you think the US will be able to provide "government handouts" to that "80% of the country" you refer to who are too lazy to learn how to grow their own food if need be and so will, according to you, "be needing government assistance"? I'm all ears....
    • Ron 1 year 1 month ago
      We've already arrived somewhere never seen before in human history. Countless idiots posting apocalyptic gibberish all day on the internet!
  • Roger  •  1 year 1 month ago
    Capital will have a hard time making much money when few can afford to buy anything. The wealthy are going to have to start paying for government, the middle class is tapped out after thirty years of a stagnant median income.
    • Frederick 1 year 1 month ago
      This is nothing more than a liberal talking point to try and get the "working class" to fight against the "rich". 50 or 75 years ago you could possibly make this argument, but not today. Wages are merely one aspect of the average American's income. 85% of Americans own some sort of stock, either directly or indirectly through a retirement plan, mutual fund, insurance, etc. Also, home ownership is near an all time high and despite the last decade, home values historically rise. So while wages may be stagnant, the average American does not rely on them to the same degree they did 50 or 75 years ago.
    • STEVE 1 year 1 month ago
      Roger, you have articulated the foolishness of wealthy greed: Its end is bankruptcy for all. Frederick, few people in this country benefit from unearned income. You must be one of the "rich".
    • GUILLOTINE 2012 1 year 1 month ago
      Exactly--once the people have given every last drop of blood, how will the vampires continue to feed?
  • Karl  •  1 year 1 month ago
    Macke has it right. As long as the Fed pumps, the market goes up. Can't fight the Fed. It works the other way too. When the Fed tightens, the market goes down about 18 months after the initial move. So the question is: When will the Fed tighten. Keep an eye on inflation, especially food and crude oil (gasoline), even though the Fed lies and say they don't watch that. THAT is where the political pressure will come for a tightening.
  • Bigafoot  •  1 year 1 month ago
    Zach... embarrassingly prolific use of latest buzzwords ...but utter lack of any clarity or ability to make a clear and definitive point. Every comment was hedged. Every sentence had a "but" in the middle.
  • Matt  •  1 year 1 month ago
    It's a tough spot to be in - The United States, Europe and the rest of the developed world that has sources of discretionary income largely enable and fuel the trend of cheap labor in the East,South America etc. However, without our Demand there would be no need for Supply and thus no jobs for these overpopulated poverty stricken nations. The United States and Europe, are becoming more and more service based economies relying on the imports from manufacturing countries for our everyday needs. This puts these manufacturing countries in a powerful position to come together and charge more for their products and thus generate more revenue for their workers. This will never happen because there is too much greed and competition on the part of the suppliers. Someone is reaping the benefits of this emerging inelastic power-shift in the manufacturing industry and it's not the workers and its not our fault - Its the political hierarchies within the foreign supply chain that don't redistribute their earnings fairly to the workers. Some corporations just look at their bottom lines. So the moral of this story is to get a degree and start fueling our new Service Based Economy. Or just sit back and become a hedge fund manager or day trader and make it rich capitalizing on the hopes and fears of society at large. Crazy Times....
  • Becky  •  1 year 1 month ago
    Farmings is great. Cattle, pork and chicken prices are up....grain prices are up...capital $$ is way up for famers. Ethanol is money in the Bank for farmers!! We, farmers continue to get gov. taxpayer subsidies!! This a great market!
    Keep paying your taxes and sending the same spenders for ag. industry to Washington. Willie Nelson...we need farmAide ha ha.
    bob
  • DonK  •  1 year 1 month ago
    "When the Obama job stimulus program ends, Zach is looking for a resumption of a decline in the unemployment rate. Ironically, one of America's strongest sectors, industrial tech, is increasing efficiency AND exacerbating the employment problem."

    What?
  • ENCODER  •  1 year 1 month ago
    Whom ever tells the most lies does not win anymore !!
  • Frank  •  1 year 1 month ago
    QE2 is an illusion. But his opinion that inflation is not a serious factor belies his otherwise, seemingly, rational deductions. Take appropriate action for the downfall, now. This is Pie in the Sky rationale.
  • EdwardJ  •  1 year 1 month ago
    As an investor for 40 years, I would rather listen to player than one with no skin in tthe game who reports on the players
  • Davanji  •  1 year 1 month ago
    I like Zach. Good guy. One of the few good souls in this business.
  • Bill  •  1 year 1 month ago
    He just brushed aside the Fukishima accident - it ain't over and it could just be a complete catastrophe for Japan. Japan is the 3rd largest economy in the world, if they suffer big losses what's it going to do to the world economy? The developed world's economies are already teetering on the edge of bankruptcy but don't worry, be happy .Buy cloud computing and routers folks. Yechh!
  • Cake  •  1 year 1 month ago
    In the world of capital where there are not much job growth and main streets get poorer and poorer. The rich get richer and thing calm down after the crisis.

    Well "Calm down?" For how long?

    Wait and see until the revolution and social unrest hit the rich and their investments. See how much of their wealth will be still intact by then.
  • DUMBING DOWN OF AMERICA  •  1 year 1 month ago
    How absurd!!!!

    Please don't try to blame long term systemic unemployment on "being built around technological advance." That may be a part of it, but.......

    .......The policies and ideological beliefs of Obama and his henchmen are the primary reasons we are not going to dig ourselves out of this hell-hole for some time to come. Not until we have a regime change and someone (along with supporting staff) enters the White House who truly believes in America, its borders, language and culture and can make the country feel good about itself and its image. No apologies to anyone for who we are.

    "THE BUCK STOPS HERE," said the sign on Predident Harry Truman's desk. It is the same for our socialist, America hating, Imam Obama, and he could give a big @#$%. He loves the chaos and misery. Just listen to him speak and his words. No sincerity and compassion at all. Saul Alinsky must be musing (somewhere) "MISSION ACCOMPLISHED" with respect to Obama.
  • George V  •  1 year 1 month ago
    Nothing new here. A lot of people have been predicting that technology will reduce demand for the low-skilled, which will create the educated upper class and the poor class. What none of the TV pundits will own up to is that the poor also have more children. For example, the US Hispanic population filling so many of the menial labor jobs, average over 5 children per family.. And the idiot Republicans and tea bag-brains want to kill family planning, thereby making a terrible situation even worse...
  • Eric  •  1 year 1 month ago
    Yes, but purple is the in color for ties
  • msr  •  1 year 1 month ago
    Didn't know where Macke had gone since Fast Money! It's terrific to see such a smart guy back with, this time, his own show!!!

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