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    $100 Oil Is Here to Stay, but Iran Closing the Strait of Hormuz “Can’t Happen”: Stuart

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    After surging in the fourth quarter, oil prices appear to have hit a ceiling at around $100 per barrel. On Friday, crude futures fell for the third straight day, with the expiring February contract down 1.8% to $98.60 in New York trading.

    This week has been a near perfect storm for oil bears, featuring a series of reports pointing to falling demand:

    • A third-straight monthly drop in Chinese manufacturing activity
    • A steep rise in U.S. gasoline inventories to the highest level in 10 months
    • Hovensa LLC saying it will shut its St. Croix refinery, due to falling demand
    • The International Energy Agency's report that global oil demand fell by 300,000 barrels per day in the fourth quarter, the first decline since the financial crisis of 2008-09. The IEA further warned of weak demand in 2012 as the global economy cools, due largely to the crisis in Europe

    But any hopes that crude prices will decline significantly from here are likely to be dashed, says Jan Stuart, head of energy research at Credit Suisse.

    While predicting oil prices will be "weakish" in the near term, Stuart is "significantly more optimistic on oil demand [vs. consensus] and more skeptical about noise about rapid supply gains from places like Libya."

    Specifically, Stuart is "more constructive" about demand for crude than the IEA. "Our outlook is more optimistic and our baseline is higher," he says, citing Credit Suisse's analysis that demand for oil accelerated in the emerging markets in the fourth quarter and global oil demand rose over 1% vs. the third quarter.

    Crude Production: A World of Potential Problems

    Add to that the potential for "headline risk" out of Iran, Sudan, Russia, Venezuela, Nigeria or a host of other oil-producing regions and Stuart expects oil prices will average around $100 per barrel in 2012.

    As for the current concern about Iranian production, the energy analyst says consumers of Iranian crude are seeking alternatives, which helps explains crude's surge at the end of 2011. But the idea that Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz in response to U.S. sanctions and Israeli provocations "can't happen," he says, citing the size of the channel, which is over 30 miles wide at its narrowest point.

    "You need a gazillion boats to close that off [and] it would be suicidal if the Iranian Navy picked a fight with the U.S. Navy," Stuart says. "A closure of the Strait of Hormuz is not an issue. What is an issue is tightening sanctions on Iran and Iran's looming difficulty in selling its oil."

    Add it all up and Stuart is optimistic about oil prices and energy stocks, which he expects will generally perform better in 2012 vs. the prior year when the Energy SPDR rose about 1%.

    Aaron Task is the host of The Daily Ticker. You can follow him on Twitter at @aarontask or email him at altask@yahoo.com.

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    93 comments

    • DrMindbender  •  North Chicago, Illinois  •  2 months ago
      a gazillion boats to close a 30 mile wide waterway??? who is this complete idiot that hasn't studied military stuff in what, 200 years?? the strait of Hormuz can be closed down by one truck on the coast with a land-based HY-2 anti-ship missile launcher, manned by 5 soldiers.

      From wiki: In October 1987, the Sungari, an American-owned tanker steaming under the Liberian flag and a Kuwaiti tanker steaming under the American flag, the Sea Isle City, were hit by Iranian HY-2 missiles.
      From wiki: In 2006, Lebanese Hezbollah fighters fired an AShM at the Israeli corvette INS Hanit, inflicting battle damage, but this warship managed to return to Israel in one piece and under its own power. A second missile in this same salvo struck and sank an Egyptian merchant ship.
      From wiki (currently fielded ASM by Iranian (land) forces: The HY-2 is launched from land-based launcher and flies at an altitude of 1,000m during the initial stage of the flight. After the missile switched to the cruising mode, the flight altitude was reduced to 100~300m. During the final stage of the flight, the missile switched on its radar seeker and dives to an altitude of 8m until it hits the target. The single-shot hit probability is estimated to be 90%.

      A very short look at ASM systems shows that IRAN CAN CLOSE THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ with VERY LITTLE MANPOWER...hello????

      The author of this article is pandering and LYING...who makes money from hiding the truth from the public? hmmm....definitely whoever is paying this guy to spew disinformation.
      • DrMindbender 2 months ago
        and who doesn't think the Iranians wouldn't launch against US Navy ships??

        From wiki: On February 25, 1991 a shore-based launcher fired two Silkworm missiles at the USS Missouri (BB-63) which was in company with the USS Jarrett (FFG-33) and HMS Gloucester. A Sea Dart missile from HMS Gloucester shot down one Silkworm and the other missed, crashing into the ocean.

        I'm pretty sure that Iran WILL attack ships in the Hormuz sooner than later...
    • Alan  •  Destin, Florida  •  3 months ago
      As long as America has no energy policy and takes no action to provide for energy independence, we will continue to be subject to middle east and speculators' extortion.
      We need to policital will to drill and refine American oil now. Or shut up and pay $10 per gallon and continue to fund Middle Eastern governments who would do not like us.
      • Ray 3 months ago
        We can use Obama sunshine!
      • Bradley 2 months ago
        we have plenty why use our oil? Use everyone elses til we are the only ones who have any
    • Beatrice  •  MacClenny, Florida  •  3 months ago
      This is nothing but a repeat of what happened in the eighties. Big oil needed an increase- prices were driven so high we screamed and when it came down to 2 bucks a gallon we all breathed a sigh of relief. When it hits 5 a gallon and we all scream we will think 3.50 is a bargain lol- there is a psychology in this - hurt them til they cant take it and you find out a little pain you can manage. The way to stop this is a revolution- just by God above don't use it- everybody refuse to work or go anywhere-turn off your power etc- and storm the White House- its the only way to take back your freedom- money tyrants have taken over this country just like the mother country had us in a stranglehold- we just changed the monkeys on our backs......of course this would mean all the people would have to work together and this will never happen because we all have the big "I" syndrome.
      • Perry 3 months ago
        you must be young
      • Double-B 2 months ago
        Young or old, Beatrice is smart and has the right idea!
    • Ford Prefect  •  Pleasanton, California  •  2 months ago
      Bradley is right. Why use our oil NOW when it will be even more valuable in the future? Oil is like a bank account. We may find more oil by exploration, but there is a limit. And not all oil is exploitable until it reaches a certain value. Alberta tar sands cost $16/bbl to extract (not including transporations which adds a lot more). Canadian tar sands wouldn't even be viable if it weren't for the glut of natural gas up North that they use as energy to process the oil. Drill baby drill sounds like a good idea...until you've sucked up that last barrel and it's buy baby buy 100% because we have no more domestic reserves. I will GUARANTEE you when oil hits $200 a barrel, we will be using the maximum of the US reserves, and if it drops again we should go back to buying somebody else's oil and keep ours in the ground.
    • rays  •  3 months ago
      if i remember right, iran shut it down once before...google it.. i think i'm right...
      only takes 4 or 5 big ships in the right place...and a few mines...
      • taiye 2 months ago
        The international community should do every thing possible to ensure that Iran did not even envisaged any act of closing down the strait of hormuz, and if they go ahead to close the straight, there should be a robust military action action against Tehran.
    • Kate  •  San Bruno, California  •  4 months ago
      If you want cheaper gas, reduce your consumption. The US produces half of the crude consumed and imports the other half. If everyone reduced their consumption by half, we won’t be dependent on foreign oil.

      Carpool to work, consider moving closer to work or working closer to home, ride your bike, or take public transportation.

      Ride your bike or get a Vespa for running errands.
      Grow some of your own food. Buy from local farmers. How much gas does it take to get those dairy products from all the happy cows in California?

      Recycle – it uses less energy to recycle than to produce new.
      • Beatrice 3 months ago
        Taking oil off as a commodity will eliminate the up and down price gouging
      • Pathfinder 3 months ago
        We reduced consumption in this country. The oil companies are now selling U.S. oil to the Asian market. You win, you lose. We really need to NOT export auto Gas, Av Gas and Diesel fuel made from U.S. oil.
      • rays 3 months ago
        a month or so ago we sold more oil than we imported... oil companies are to blame lets nationalize them. take all the oil barrons money and holdings and throw them in debtors prison...
    • dennis  •  Irvine, California  •  4 months ago
      Dollar devaluation and increased global demand are the main reasons gasoline cost what it does.
      Thank your stars you don't have to pay what Europeans do.
      They tax the hell out of it over there.
    • westerner  •  Dallas, Texas  •  4 months ago
      Oil is only at around $100 because a small, but powerful few want it that way.
    • tallyman  •  4 months ago
      History teaches the price of oil can swing low. Homeowners never thought their home values would go so low.
    • Dominick  •  New York, New York  •  3 months ago
      The oil companies are making a bundle of money the reason they need to pay our senators and congress people under the table so they can keep the oil as a commodity. Oil should not be a commodity we need it to run our business it’s a necessity we should all strike. At list they should give cheaper price to trucking
      Business
    • Anthony L  •  Seal Beach, California  •  4 months ago
      What a bunch of %$#&...Does America need to "BOYCOTT" Oil all together just like the internet did to get Congress to act? This economy can't take $100+ barrel of oil. A bunch of rich money grubbing greedy people are driving the price of oil The news media is also a major factor in the price of oil. It has nothing to do with supply and demand...if it did, then oil would be around $38-40 a barrel. If the Arabs are producing oil for $2 a barrel...where is the other $88 dollars a barrel going? Yes it cost's a few dollars a barrel to turn it to gasoline, and the retailers need to make a profit, but the Day Traders on Wall Street are the ones making the killing at the expense of the poor guy who is having to shell out "TWICE" as much out of our pockets to go to work every week. Frankly we ought to just stay home from work for a week and stop buying gasoline and scream at congress to get some one to do something about the "Rape" we are getting at the pump.
    • mr yankee  •  Elkhorn, Nebraska  •  4 months ago
      what about all this oil that canada has. why cant the U.S. buy oil from canada????????
    • PapaDa  •  Sacramento, California  •  4 months ago
      Boycot oil the best you can and vote, vote, vote!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    • CONDOR  •  Saginaw, Michigan  •  4 months ago
      Oil prices will never moderate as long as our Washington Lawmakers are on the pad to the Big Oil Companies and there are no controls placed on The Wall Street Oil Speculators!! Al Capone would have loved to run his racks in this day and age, with no enforcement of laws or jail time for those caught redhanded, just take, take, take!!
    • JOel  •  Philadelphia, Pennsylvania  •  4 months ago
      Extended 100 dollar oil equals another collapse!
    • Thomas  •  Corpus Christi, Texas  •  4 months ago
      With all the issues with energy, how smart was it for the Obama administration to block Keystone which would be a reliable source of oil for this country replacing some of those countries, especially Venezuela, who are having these issues?
    • Anonymous  •  4 months ago
      TEHRAN (Reuters) - Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps said on Saturday it considered the likely return of U.S. warships to the Gulf part of routine activity, backing away from previous warnings to Washington not to re-enter the area.

      The statement may be seen as an effort to reduce tensions after Washington said it would respond if Iran made good on a threat to block the Strait of Hormuz - the vital shipping lane for oil exports from the Gulf.
    • CharlMty  •  4 months ago
      The BRICs are the ones driving consumption now, all you can do is get a more fuel efficient vehicle so you can keep paying the same at the pump.
    • Steve  •  4 months ago
      Yep Kate...we can't afford newer hi milage cars, so all we can do is drive our older stuff less.....bus, walk, carpool, plan trips....and no sightseeing.
    • Adam  •  4 months ago
      One more investment "expert" trying to get people to invest. All the experts make predictions and are no where to be found when people lose money and they are wrong. At some point all good things come to an end. Hopefully that end comes in the next Presidential election. This clown they talk to in this interview gives this line of crap about "fundamentals" and that he is more skeptical this and that. Fundamentals have nothing to do with the price of oil it is speculation. Look up the definition and compare what the experts and the oil companies are saying.

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