Is the long-term bond bull market coming to an end? The 10-year Treasury yield has jumped about 1% in the past six months to 2.75%, leading some market observers like Dennis Gartman of The Gartman Letter to declare its demise. Peter Bookvar, chief market analyst at The Lindsey Group, writes in a recent note that the bond market is "reasserting its power over the long end of the curve," disregarding Fed policy.
But Gary Shilling, president of A. Gary Shilling & Co., a financial research and money portfolio management firm, will have none of that. He's been a bond market bull for over 30 years and tells The Daily Ticker that Treasury yields are heading lower--to under 2% for the 10-year and under 3% for the 30-year.
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"It really depends on your view of inflation and deflation...the greatest determiner of bond yields" says Shilling. "Now we're at 1.2% inflation--the Fed wants 2% or higher. The real risk is deflation."
But does that jibe with some ofRead More »from Forget the Fed, Interest Rates Are Heading Lower, Shilling Says