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Last fall, some U.S. economic data began to come in weak, and the stock market sold off. This prompted many economists and analysts to begin talking about the possibility of a new recession.

One analyst, however--Lakshman Achuthan of the Economic Cycle Research Institute--did not just talk about the possibility of one.

He said, definitively, that the U.S. was "tipping back into recession. And there's nothing that policy makers can do to head it off."

Well, the U.S. economy did not tip back into recession. In fact, the data started coming in better-than-expected again, and the country experienced modest growth in Q4 and Q1.

ECRI's forecasting model often antagonizes observers because it's a "black box": ECRI refuses to say what data points it includes in its leading indicators. So when the U.S. did not go into recession, Lakshman Achuthan was once again pressed for details about what went into his definitive recession call--and he was often upbraided when he refused to say.

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It's been more than three years since the market bottomed, yet individual investors remain extremely wary of the stock market and clearly there's a lot of good reasons why:

• The 2008 credit crisis and 2000 bursting of the tech bubble scarred a generation of investors, some irreparably.
• The "Flash Crash" of May 2010 spooked many investors who feel the market is rigged, or at least manipulated by high-frequency computer trading.
• High unemployment, stagnant wages and the bursting of the housing bubble have left millions of Americans with little or no funds to put in the market, even if they were so inclined. In 2011, 46.4% of U.S. households owned stocks, down from 59.4% in 2001, according to USA Today.
• Government bailouts of Wall Street and the Fed's ongoing zero interest rate policy have eroded investors' faith in the market and the sustainability of any rally.
• Lack of faith in policymakers here and abroad, especially Europe, has many investors