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It's that time again. Black Friday has arrived again, and with it the crowds of shoppers, the big promotions, and the analysts who fret that the next several weeks will make or break the year for retailers.

Retailers have a lot riding on the Holiday Season. And there is a lot that can go wrong, especially this year. The weather in December is always a wild card — blizzards and snow storms can dampen the shopping season if they strike at the wrong time. A global financial crisis that causes markets to tank erodes the confidence of shoppers, particularly high-end spenders that flood into the likes of Saks and Neiman-Marcus. Hannukah can come late in the season, as it does this year — unless it comes to early. And for the last several years, analysts have added a poor job market. With unemployment high, jobs scarce and wages dampened, they wonder whether people will spend? Accordingly, the forecasts are pretty lame for this year.

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Thanksgiving has come and gone and black Friday is here, but higher prices consumers have paid for gas and air travel to visit family and friends are not likely to go anywhere fast.

Airfare prices are up roughly 7% this Thanksgiving compared to last year, according to Hotwire.com President Clem Bason due to a lower sales volume as a result of the stymied economy. As for Christmas air travel, those prices are expected to jump to 5-10% above 2010 levels. Meanwhile, airlines have cut back on the number of flights offered, translating into a more crowded traveling experience and more delays.

The average price of gas is down a bit from the beginning of this year to $3.32, according to AAA's Daily Fuel Gauge. But prices are up $0.45 from the same time last year.

Surprisingly these higher travel costs have not prevented people from getting out of town. This Thanksgiving roughly 45 million Americans were expected to take to the road, air or