Wed, May 23, 2012, 5:36 PM EDT - U.S. Markets closed

Discover Yahoo! With Your Friends

Explore news, videos, and much more based on what your friends are reading and watching. Publish your own activity and retain full control.

To get started, first

YOUR FRIENDS' ACTIVITY

    Bernanke’s Bind: Ignore Inflation or Risk Killing the ‘Recovery’?

    As you've probably heard by now, this is shaping up to be a landmark week for the Fed, which holds a two-day policy meeting starting Tuesday.

    In addition to Ben Bernanke's first-ever press conference on Wednesday, the fate of the Fed's quantitative easing program is likely be decided at this week's FOMC meeting.

    The Fed's $600 billion QE2 program is widely expected to end on June 30, as originally scheduled. Given widespread concerns about inflation and some vocal opposition both in Congress and within the Fed, it seems highly unlikely the Fed will announce QE3 or any other type of new stimulus program this week.

    But letting QE2 expire is not the same as Fed tightening, or even a bias toward tightening. "The Fed will almost certainly stick with its current policies, but may lay the groundwork for its inevitable push toward tighter rather than consistently easier policies," writes Dennis Gartman of The Gartman Letter. "Where the ECB, the Bank of Canada, the People's Bank of China, the Reserve Banks of Australia and New Zealand shall all err upon the side of tighter, disinflationary policies, the Fed will continue a while longer with holding the Fed funds rate effectively at zero."

    For all the talk about inflation and concern about the central bank's credibility, the Fed is also keenly aware of the risks of withdrawing its support for the economy, much less actually raising rates.

    In addition to stubbornly high unemployment and a weakening housing market (today's dead-cat bounce in new home sales notwithstanding), "several recent economic indicators appear to be flashing yellow warning signs of a potential reversal in the U.S. business cycle," writes Bloomberg economist Richard Yaramone.

    Yaramone cites a "definitive downward turn" in leading economic indicators, including the Conference Board's Index of LEI, the Philadel­phia Fed's Business Outlook Survey and concerns on quarterly conference calls about commodity price inflation and supply chain disruptions after Japan's devastating earthquake and tsunami.

    Of course, the Fed's easy-money policies have contributed to commodity price inflation — whether Bernanke admits it or not — but most economists agree it's a mistake to raise rates in the face of rising energy prices, as the ECB has done.

    Judging by his public comments to date, as well as those of key lieutenants Janet Yellen and William Dudley, expect Bernanke to stay the easy money course unless and until the financial markets revolt.

    By keeping rates so long for so long, Bernanke has gotten the economy and the financial markets addicted to easy money, putting himself in a bind from which Houdini himself might have trouble escaping, as Henry and I discuss in the accompanying clip.

    Aaron Task is the host of The Daily Ticker. You can follow him on Twitter at @atask or email him at altask@yahoo.com

    Yahoo! Poll

    Will Congress get anything accomplished before the November elections?

    Loading...
    Poll Choice Options
    • Yes
    • No
     

    147 comments

    • Rock Solid Truth  •  1 year 1 month ago
      Title of this post needs to changed. There is no recovery.
      It should read........"Bernanke's Bind: Ignore Inflation or Risk Killing the ARTIFICIAL Recovery".
      • CherylB 1 year 1 month ago
        there is a recovery. It includes capital owners and labor in developing countries. It also includes high skilled labor in this country.

        If you are skilled at something that can be done by a machine or an intelligent Asian, then you are screwed.

        On the flip side...if you can flip burgers...you will have a job
      • JoeBagaDoughnuts 1 year 1 month ago
        Title should be "Berbanke's BLIND: I see no inflation!"
      • DirkD 1 year 1 month ago
        Financial masturbation continues.
    • Magic Dog  •  1 year 1 month ago
      Of course, it would never occur to these conceited egotistical fools running the country that they are the problem and not the cure.
      • MonitoredByYagoffs 1 year 1 month ago
        Art, they are all nothing more than puppets. The CENTRAL BANK grooms and "elects" everyone at the national level to do their evil bidding. The central bank commands its puppets to "help" other countries or engage in warefare where we DON'T belong because they know it costs lots of money. They then print this money out of thin air backed by nothing but debt and loan it to the governments with the sole purpose of collecting the interest on the repayment. They don't care who dies as long as the interest keeps rolling in. People in general really need to learn who the TRUE enemy is and focus their efforts on stopping them.
      • heezdedjim 1 year 1 month ago
        They want to get as far away from 2008 as they can. They're terrified that the poor conservative, responsible victims who are on the hook for all the fannie/freddie debt, bailouts, not to mention are suffering high-unemployment and rising food/energy costs will figure out just what they did with their 'home ownership is a Right' policies. They're buying time and just want to get to 2012 and another obama/Dem vistory and kick the can and the Bill that's coming due for the next administration. Where's Robespierre when you need him?
      • Juno 1 year 1 month ago
        Obama is more marxist than Lenin, more socialist than old China. "Tax the rich!" he says, but just who are they? These are the people that worked hard for the american dream, they didn't inherit it. 94% of millionaires in Canada earned the money themselves, starting off middle to lower class, a recent study showed. I am sure this figure is not far off the mark in the US either. Do you think these people deserve to get half their income taken away and given to someone who never risked a dime of their own money in their lives? Do you think some lazy overpaid government employee with a fat publicly funded pension deserves his money more? Do you think he will want to work all that hard if he has to give it to the government? Raising taxes on those that worked hard all their lives does not stimulate them to invest more of their hard earned cash, they hoard it, protect it, and hide it so the tax man doesn't get them. In the past, the tax take actually dropped when government pulled these stunts (regardless how popular they are to the generally ignorant public). As far as Corporation tax goes, the US has nearly the highest in the world. If you were on the board of a company, responsible to gain the highest returns for shareholders, would you base your company in the US? NO!! And who the h*ll OWNS these corporations? Retired people, your average Joe - Thats who - via shares. THEY PAY THE TAX through capital gains and on dividends (the net profit of the company). The more the company makes, the more people earn greater dividends, the more tax is paid. Tax the corporation, it leaves the country with all the money and jobs. Obama doesn't know what he is doing or why. He listens to ex GS employees who are in it for themselves and their buddies/real masters. Before this is over the US will be pillaged by the Rothschild family in the same manner as every other worldwide financial disaster in the last three hundred years. Take a look at history, every person that stood in the way of the establishment of the Federal Reserve met an untimely death or was removed from the path of winning an election. Wealth will once again be taken from 90% of the population. This is an engineered destruction of the West. Even Netanyahu was quoted once (and I paraphrase) "the US? We can get them to do what we want!" -- THAT my friends, tells you who is in charge, not you, not YOUR government, but the elite families and their connections. Bernanke may delay QE3, but he cannot avoid it. Stocks are pumped up by cheap money and zero rates. Take this away and the markets collapse, people stop spending due to fear, housing takes another turn downwards, banks then fall. Bernanke cannot afford this outcome. Everyone knows this, that is why the markets will not fall even if QE3 is delayed, we know it is necessary in order to inflate the debt away because there is no way the US can pay its debts with a rising currency or deflation or stagflation. Obama and the government do not have the political will to cut back on spending unless there is a major shock to the system, like say perhaps China or Japan selling most of its US reserves, driving the dollar to zero. The rest of the world would switch to a new currency(ies) , (gold/yen/yuan/euro etc..) reserve and the US basically defaults on the debt. Perfect!
    • Hnikuor  •  1 year 1 month ago
      This policy of easy money has enabled addiction and dependence on more of the same. To believe he'll cut his pals off from their supply and stop being the candyman is hilarious!
      Don't expect an intervention and time soon. There is no plan B................
      • Steve 1 year 1 month ago
        Government spending is a necessity during a severe recession. No govt spending = Depression. Such was the case during the Great Depression when the Fed couldn't spend anymore due to Fed spending being tied to a percentage of physical gold in reserves.

        You should have paid attention during high school history class.

        Fact: Bernanke was appointed by Bush not Obama. Love him or hate him, he's an expert on the Great Depression and I think he knows what he's doing with respect to monetary policy.
      • Spicy Bacon 1 year 1 month ago
        I don't think he has a clue about economics
    • Lean Government  •  1 year 1 month ago
      How can one person-Bernanke controls the financial fate of 300 million US citizens? He destroyed the saver by keeping interest rate at near 0 and destropyed average American by printing money and jack up inflation. He only helped Wall street and bankers!
      • STGSTG 1 year 1 month ago
        is in that amzing and he is not in jail or even protested.
    • Hopeful  •  1 year 1 month ago
      Get Rid of Ben and the Cronies. They are destroying the Free Market to pad their own pockets.
      Throw the crooks in jail.
      • Steve 1 year 1 month ago
        And while you're at it, get rid of all the government meddling and regulations. Wall Street bankers need to eat too!
      • Turnitupsidedown 1 year 1 month ago
        The fed can do anything they want. They control the money supply and banking system. It's a big fraud. We no long get interest on our accounts. Banks borrow at 0% interest from government. The Fed's buying US treasuries to make money. With inflation going up, the cost of money has to go up. Interates go up! and the Fed and their cronies make billions. They are never audited!
      • Steve 1 year 1 month ago
        I got better ideas than jail.
    • K  •  1 year 1 month ago
      It's the printing of new hot fresh dollars by the Fed that is driving inflation. If I can get ton of money at 0% from the Fed I will buy land, and oil, sugar, timber, copper, gold etc. Soon the dollar will not worth the paper it's printed on.
    • Hopeful  •  1 year 1 month ago
      Get rid of Ben.
    • Tom  •  1 year 1 month ago
      Low interest rates are good for Wall Street. Low rates and a weak dollar are not good for America. We see who the FED is looking out for. They are looking out for Wall Street at th expense of America. They are selling us out. This is legalized counterfeiting by a bunch of Academics looking out for Wall Street, not Main Street.
    • Cpt Insano  •  1 year 1 month ago
      More like risk Obama's presidency. Only way to increase markets is to inflate away. Recovering wall street gives the people a false sense of economic recovery.
    • Anon  •  1 year 1 month ago
      A reply to Gadawg's comment:

      Food and energy costs most certainly CAN be managed by the Fed. There is speculation built into the price of oil, to be sure, but for God's sake, don't you think the devaluing of the dollar.....the PURPOSEFUL devaluing of the dollar.....might have just as much, if not more, to do with higher oil prices and higher food prices than speculation?

      Just as an example on the oil side, look at the US dollar versus the Canadian dollar. Two years ago, you could get $1.28 Canadian for a US dollar. When I wrote this response, you can get $0.9545 Canadian for one US dollar. Just assume that Canada wants to get $100 Canadian for a barrel of oil. Two years ago, that would have cost the US $78.12. Today, if Canada wants that same $100 for a barrel of oil, it costs the US $104.76, a 34% increase for US consumers for a product that Canada is selling for the same amount of its currency.

      Tell me again how Fed policy doesn't have anything to do with controlling (or causing) inflation in oil and food.
    • GregoryM  •  1 year 1 month ago
      So whats up with current events?
      Lets go back to just 2003. Since that time the purchasing power of the dollar has gone down nearly 25 percent.
      Well what does that actually mean? It means that if you has $10,000 cash sitting in your drawer you would now need $12,500 to buy an item that cost $10,000 in 2003.
      In 2003 the DJIA was 9000, today it is 12,500, a difference of 25 percent.
      So what does this mean? It means in monetary terms a zero sum gain due to the fall of the dollar.
      In 2003 an ounce of silver was $5.00, today it is touching on the $50.00 mark, a gain of 500 percent, (5 to 10 is 100pct., 5 to 20 is 200pct., 5 to 40 is 400pct., 5 to 50 is 500pct).
      In 2003 an ounce of gold was $250.00, today is is just over $1,500.00, also multiple hundreds of percent gains.
      In 2003 crude oil was $30.00 a barrel, today it is $112.00, again multiple hundreds of percent gains. The same is true for corn, wheat, and cotton as well.
      So the "rally" in the stock market is an illusion, in monetary terms a net zero sum gain while the cost of commodities which include food and energy are skyrocketing-Literally.
      The International Monetary fund said that the Chinese economy will overtake the US in 4 years, Standard and Poors just changed its economic outlook on the US economy to negative-This is historic, they are also threatening to downgrade US debt within 1-2 years.
      With each passing day those who do not have a hedge against the falling dollar are getting poorer.
      The dollar is near historic lows and the only way to strenghten the dollar is for the Fed. to raise interest rates, however, they cant raise interest rates because then the interest on the debt which not only includes the 14.3 trillion NATIONAL debt, but another over 100 trillion in unfunded liabilities from medicaid, medicare, as well as other social programs would not be able to be paid. The Fed. has to keep the interest rates artificially low in order for the US to service its debt.
      The only reason there has not already been a major financial collapse is because the Fed's quantitative easing policy, that is the Fed. is simply printing money out of thin air backed by nothing and is purchasing US treasury bonds with that printed money. This is what keeps our economy going, if the government doesn't sell bonds/debt our way of life changes dramitacally.
      The Chinese as well as Japan, (especially since the earthquake, and nuclear disaster) and India who are the 3 largest buyers of US debt are no longer buying, in fact they are selling debt.
      The US is insolvent and the world is beginning to realize it. That is why precious metals and commodities have gone parabolic, a trend which will not stop anytime soon.
      All fiat currency, (a currency which is not backed up by real assets, gold for example), seeks it true intrinsic value till it achieves it, that value is ZERO.
      Throughout world history every economy financed with fiat currency has collapsed, every one.
      With every dollar the Fed prints it devalues every current dollar in circulation, that is why we are seeing the dollar plummet, another trend which will not end anytime soon. And again why? Because 1., The Fed. cannot raise interest rates and 2., Because they keep printing more dollars. If the Fed. keeps weakening the dollar what happens? The stock market keeps going up in relation to the dollar value, so a zero sum gain is achieved and two, commodity prices keep rising exponentially.
      There is no way to avoid a total economic meltdown, a critical mass has been achieved.
    • jack  •  1 year 1 month ago
      At some point inflation is going to kill the recovery might as well start pushing up the dollar, raising interest rates so savers can earn some money, the hell with the housing market that ain't doing anything even with the lowest rates in history, and get commodities down in price by pushing up the dollar do those things and the economy will go forward continue to pander to big business the end of the recovery and another recession with not much fire power from the fed to hold up things
    • Butch  •  1 year 1 month ago
      Wow, so many people don't get it.... Bernanke is not ignoring inflation, he is intentionally creating it. As a student of the great depression he has failed the lesson, as he is just repeating history.
    • Tom  •  1 year 1 month ago
      These economists need to put the crack pipe down and not just slowly step away, run away!

      True story. Now that I pay more for food and gas, I am cutting back. I am driving less. I am not eating out. I am opening windows instead of using the AC. I am not going out and consuming. I am planting my own vegetable garden.

      Point of all this? Higher prices will take the economy, not make it better. Cheap money causes imbalances and then crashes. This is a case where the medicine the FED is prescribing is worse than the disease.
    • penurius  •  1 year 1 month ago
      Bernanke does not see this as a bind at all. He believes printing money and zero interest is the cure to all economic ills and he is conducting a dangerous experiment with the biggest economy in the world to try to vindicate his theories. Meanwhile he says little about the country's soaring debt and liabilities, giving Obama the tacit permission to continue his spending spree unrestrained and Congress the license to continue business as usual. Bernanke will continue to pour more stimulative fuel on the fire until inflation and interest rates go out of control. Then he will finally be replaced and go quietly back to some cushy academic professorship but the rest of us will be paying the price for decades to come.
    • Henri  •  1 year 1 month ago
      Bernanke is a criminal A$$hole. He does not have any solution. SOB is saving bankers by screwing the retired people dependent on fixed income and denying the rampant inflation.
    • Mark  •  1 year 1 month ago
      You flaming idiot Bernanke....Quit giving away our money. Someone needs to stop this clown.
    • Jacob D  •  1 year 1 month ago
      Anyone who thinks he can print his way out of the slump is fool.
    • Where are my rights  •  1 year 1 month ago
      What Big Ben tried to do is to start paying the nation debt by inflation. The higher cost of items purchased bring more tax dollars to pay the investors. That part is working for them. Problem is it is destroying everything else around it. Face it, the compounded interest through the last decade has put the dollar at a zero worth, We are seeing the effects of this. We now have the Bric starting. China, Brazil, India, Russia, are now trading among themselves in their own currency. The dollar is on the way out as the world currency. The S&P is down grading the U.S. credit. Banks in other countries are refusing deposits in U.S. dollars. Remember the Fed's and our government will not be telling you the truth about what is really underway. This is going to be the worst decade of your life. History shows exactly what path we are on. Britain was in the same situation we are now. Everything they tried, we are doing. It did not work. We are not special.
      The banking industry is made up of the Federal Reserve. The only entity that is allowed to print money and put a number in a ledger at no cost to them. But yet allowed to charge you interest plus the principle in the form of taxes at will. Yes you are correct in thinking that this is a plot. During these bailouts for the banks. It was determined that the too big to fail policy was unacceptable by our elected officials. Because of the outcries of the public. Banks are countering this by closing or taking over the small ones. This does in fact make them bigger and stronger . This once useless paper does not become nothing until it is loaned and something is purchased. At that time it is then guaranteed by you from your sweat and labor. In the same instance this property can be taken from you and would allow this paper that purchased an item to become a asset of the bank just from the number just written in the ledger.
      The Nation debt as of today you owe 45751.77 dollars. Even if you are born today. Over 45 percent of all citizens have less then 3000.00 in cash available. Now we have States like IL. . Just for pension obligations alone cost each person 6600.00 dollars each year. 42000.00 dollars per household. Can someone explain this to me? I just do not know how this can ever be repaid. As wages decrease and inflation continues. All that this means is the people have less to pay them. So they must raise more taxes in order to meet their obligations. The truth be told, our government or the Federal Reserve does not care about the people in this county. We are bankrupt by the greed of the select few, face it!
    • Cloud Runner  •  1 year 1 month ago
      For the millions of Americans who have saved for decades and now get zero percent on their savings while gas and food are at double digit increases and social security recipients get zero % increase I say raise interest rates. Spending well over a trillion on foreign aid / wars while Americans go unemployed .... time for Mr Bernanke and the Brain Trust on the Potomac to get real. Foreign aid needs to go to ZERO , subsides to Oil Companies need to go to Zero, corporations that ship jobs overseas then shelter profits should be taxed until they start bringing jobs back home. Want a laugh ? Notice CEO's never ship their jobs off shore !

    FOLLOW THE DAILY TICKER

    The Daily Ticker covers the most important business stories of the day -- the economy, investing, corporate leadership and politics. The Daily Ticker picks up where Tech Ticker left off and is hosted by Aaron Task, Henry Blodget and Daniel Gross. Often serious, sometimes irreverent and always interesting, The Daily Ticker gives viewers a unique take on the business world's most crucial stories.

    Subscribe and RSS

    [X]

    How to subscribe

    Roll over each section to subscribe using Add to My Yahoo! or RSS Feed feeds.

    Yahoo! News offers dozens of RSS feeds you can read in My Yahoo! or using third-party RSS news reader software. Click here to find out more about RSS and how you can use it with Yahoo! News.
     
    Recent Quotes
    Symbol Price Change % Chg 
    Your most recently viewed tickers will automatically show up here if you type a ticker in the "Enter symbol/company" at the bottom of this module.
    You need to enable your browser cookies to view your most recent quotes.
     
    Sign-in to view quotes in your portfolios.