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    Bernanke Stands Pat, Slams Congress: “Exactly the Correct Speech,” Kotok Says

    Like Sammy Hagar in his Van Halen days, Ben Bernanke has the tools to satisfy Wall Street, but decided to walk away — at least for the moment, leaving those hoping for QE3 in despair. C'mon baby, finish what you started.

    At Friday's much-anticipated Jackson Hole speech, Bernanke offered no new Fed policies to address the nation's economic malaise, which is even worse than previously estimated. Ahead of Bernanke's speech, the Commerce Department revised its second-quarter GDP estimate to 1% from 1.3% previously, meaning the U.S. economy grew a paltry 0.6% in the first half of 2011.

    In the speech, Bernanke reiterated the themes of the FOMC's Aug. 9 policy statement: Economic growth "considerable slower" in the first half than the Fed expected but the ingredients for a revival remain in place.

    "The economic healing will take a while, and there may be setbacks along the way [but] the growth fundamentals of the United States do not appear to have been permanently altered by the shocks of the past four years," Bernanke said. Furthermore, "the healing process should not leave major scars."

    And should Bernanke & Co. prove, yet again, overly optimistic about the economy, "the Federal Reserve has a range of tools that could be used to provide additional monetary stimulus," he said, leaving

    For the bears, the conclusion from Friday morning events is simple: Bernanke is out of bullets, the economy is at stall speed and heading for a crash, and Europe is still a basket case. Abandon all hope, ye who enter here.

    But bulls like David Kotok, chief investment officer of Cumberland Advisors, look at the same development and see reason for optimism.

    "This was exactly the correct speech for Bernanke to give today," Kotok says and it appears the financial markets agree. After an early dip after Bernanke's speech, the Dow was recently up 1.3% at 12,294.

    "All this expectations we're going to get QE three, four, five, six, seven is nonsense," he continues. "The Fed has always left the door open to go either way with policy depending on the economics. The economics today say 'don't do anymore' and see if it'll work."

    No Case for QE3

    Kotok maintains an upbeat view on U.S. stocks based on valuation and his baseline scenario for slow but steady GDP growth, as detailed here an in a upcoming statement. As a result, he thinks the Fed might be on hold for a while.

    "I don't see the case for QE3 -- meaning expansion of the [Fed's] balance sheet -- unless [events] turn the economy into recession, take the growth rate negative, take the inflation rate to deflation, take the unemployment rate to 10%, you'll get QE something. Without that, I don't think you're going to get anymore."

    In addition to applauding Bernanke's comments on monetary policy, Kotok also cheered the Fed chairman for wading into fiscal policy matters, and giving America's elected officials a stern rebuke.

    "The country would be well served by a better process for making fiscal decisions," Bernanke said. "The negotiations that took place over the summer disrupted financial markets and probably the economy as well, and similar events in the future could, over time, seriously jeopardize the willingness of investors around the world to hold U.S. financial assets or to make direct investments in job-creating U.S. businesses."

    It's unusual for a sitting Fed chairman to criticize Congress, which Kotok calls "the most disappointing organization and entity in America."

    Congress makes "a very convenient target…but the fact is [Bernanke] said the truth," he says. "It's very nice to hear the truth no matter which mouth it comes out of."

    About the only criticism Kotok had for Bernanke is his decision to not hold a press conference after the Fed's September policy matter, which is now going to be a two-day affair.

    "Where's the transparency?," Kotok asks. "Why not hold a press conference after every meeting?"

    Why not, indeed. Unless, of course, the Fed has something to hide...

    Aaron Task is the host of The Daily Ticker. You can follow him on Twitter at @atask or email him at altask@yahoo.com

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    88 comments

    • frankmargel.com  •  8 months ago
      Good morning America! Helicopter Ben blames Congress! Look, the American people voted in favor of this Congress, Ben! Kotok is a clone...LMFAO! Go Tea Party America and vote Obama and the 'fly boy' economics of failed leadership OUT! Thanks America, I love you babe! NEXT!
    • Ken  •  8 months ago
      Ben is holding back what little ammo is left - wise move.
      • frankmargel.com 8 months ago
        Ben is a tool for the fly boy economic engine, it just takes time to wake up, you'll get there. Thanks for the post! Try again! LMFAO!
    • Just Old Me  •  8 months ago
      Wow Wish i could be paid for a re print MR Task how creative only on yahoo could financial reporters get paid for this kind of stuff Oh yes you did get the lib thing in with the blame on congress glad you stay true to your colors Wish for a little less bias from all of you some day you know fair and balanced !
      • frankmargel.com 8 months ago
        Post often, you do make a difference, and The Ticker has more to offer... post often and take a stand! Thumbs up!
    • ihatepoliticans  •  8 months ago
      hey Kotk IDIOT BEN DIDNT SAY ANYTHING EXCEPT LIKE BROTHER OBOZO PLAYED THE BLAME GAME
    • Bypath  •  8 months ago
      Fed had little to say except to repeat the blame game in-play by Obama. However, the new IMF leader had plenty to say and that is the link to putting the IMF in the place of the all of the central banks, which includes the Fed. Amazing how quickly the new IMF leader was picked and how the old one was removed. The G-7 or G-8 countries have a plan to do Q-E 3 through the IMF with bonds or something els? Stay tuned!
    • Jonah  •  8 months ago
      I think Bernanke is scared and that makes him poor at making the tough decisions. The debt is out of control and he should be vocal about it.

      Right now, many people believe the dollar is going to collapse due to America exporting inflation. And, the only way the Fed can keep th

      ose big banks from loaning out all that free money they got is to pay them interest on that money that is higher than what individuals will pay. So, the end result will be massive interest rates 20% or more and inflation. These massive rates will increase the rates on the national debt and will create a monetary crisis that is massive. Sure, the Fed can print more money to pay the bills and, as a result, the inflation rate will be crazy. Catastrophically, those people holding dollars will want to dump them worldwide. Countries already tired of losing money on the dollar will stop buying them creating further collapse. The end result will be 50% unemployment and much heavier declines in housing and stock prices.

      Can it continue? The US gets about 2.5 trillion in taxes per year and is in debt about 12 trillion. If you made 40k per year and had debt of 240k, it would be about the same situation. You could probably make ends meet, but it would be tighter than you could imagine assuming you had good interest rates. Unofortunately, it doesn't take much to change the situation. Rates can and will go up. Foreigners are already purchasing a lot less dollars. Real inflation is already much higher than reported by the government. And, the biggie, the government debt will continue to climb.

      Now, if you are like any normal person. During these very tight financial times, go into the back room and print off some money to get you through. The only problem is that you're going to have to pay up eventually. In this case, the payback will be the global collapse of the dollar. This will be the real casualty. It will be a permanent blow. We can survive the massive unemployment and high interest rates, but losing the dollar paves the way for a new international currency. That's where this is all headed. And, in the end, the world will be better off for an international currency, but America will lose much of its status in the world as it continues to decay and decline in the hands of our a congress that refuses to take the pain now in exchange for a death blow later. Bernanke will be nearly single handedly responsible for the dollar decline. And why? He simply doesn't have the nerve required for the job. Yes, he is a genius, but temperament is often more important than intellect.

      I hope I am totally wrong.
    • Todd  •  8 months ago
      The market will rally and I'm margined to the hilt right now for Monday's rally.
    • usecare  •  8 months ago
      Mr. Bernanke seems to offer little besides massively subsidizing and encouraging the same mentality of greed and over-stimulus that got us into this mess in the first place.
    • B12 Shot  •  8 months ago
      The danger to America is not Barack Obama but a citizenry capable of entrusting an inexperienced man like him with the Presidency....

      The problem is much deeper and far more serious than Mr. Obama, who is a mere symptom of what ails America--- Blaming the prince of the fools should not blind anyone to the vast confederacy of fools that made him their prince.

      The Republic can survive a Barack Obama. It is less likely to survive a multitude of Idiots such as those who made him their president....
      • KsDevil 8 months ago
        Just a side note: it is Congress that controls the spending, not the President. So far the People seem to elect people with more mouth than brain into that position.
      • Pinhead 8 months ago
        Ya, so let's elect Rick Perry - there's a good idea. [/sarcasm]
    • TawnyAngel88  •  8 months ago
      The chief at the helm (who basically has final say in just about anything) is neither qualified nor experienced.

      Third World Junkie to be exact.

      He'd had his chances, but he preferred to remain a political socialite.

      Hope and Change?

      Nightmare and Hell more likely.

      Amen and Amen.
    • ROCCO  •  8 months ago
      A good correction. Berkankee slams the Pres.
    • ROCCO  •  8 months ago
      Put an apple in his mouth.
    • bierterrasse  •  8 months ago
      Tweaking the tax code will not create jobs. Stimulating growth is not the answer. The restoration of balance, both international (with devaluation of the $US) and domestic (with more even income distribution across all tiers of the population, as between management and employees, between labor and CEOs), is what is needed to put people back to work, to give people money to spend, and to restore a healthy economy. A healthy economy is about balance, not growth. In the 1950s and 60s, economists were predicting the 35-hour work week would be a reality by the 1990's and the 20-hour work week by 2010 because they believed automation and robots would supplant workers, which would make all of society richer. We all know that never happened. Why? Because as machines became (1) capable of doing highly complex calculations, (2) at high speed, and (3) could assemble with greater precision, the tasks remaining to labor became more menial and were considered less valuable. Computers made it possible for hordes of accountants to be replaced by 1 or 2 people at corporate offices. The next phase will find restaurants with robots doing the cooking and customers ordering by kiosk at the luncheon counter or table and conveyors delivering the food direct to your table (already a reality in Germany). Stores will be stocked by robots at higher speed, greater neatness, faster spill clean-up, and exact up-to-the-minute shelf pricing. The benefits of these economies of scale and speed, however, are not filtering down to the general population. Instead, workers and employees are valued less and less and exploited more and more because there is an endless supply of people who need work. To produce more goods or to increase the variety of products and services available only produces profit if there are more people with more money and more time to consume. Growth in consumption, however, is not realistic when the U.S. is already the most obese nation in the world, and has more toys and entertaining distractions at home than we have time to use. Our national parks do not have enough fish to stock the lakes crowded with fishermen on their shores already stepping on top of each other. This is why I say balance, rather than growth, is what is needed to nurture a healthy economy. If this sounds like a communist utopian dream, then we may have to create some new vocabulary, for the times they are a changin . . .
    • Leo  •  8 months ago
      this is what it's boiled down to in America. Speeches and money laundering. That's it folks@@!!! Oh.. I'm sorry, you were hoping for change? LMAO
      garbage in....garbage out. Morons voted for bush, then the same group of morons voted for Obama. That leaves very few smart Americans. A very small handful. That won't be good for any real change. So keep going to the mall and joining facebook. And slowly watch your world taken over by fascism. Enjoy
    • A Yahoo! User  •  9 months ago
      What hasn't Obama done for the rich republican cry babies. He'll get

      re-elected for that alone. He is the funnel for public tolerance of

      the rich republican cry babies out there.... Wah... wah..... let me

      keep my lollipops..... wah.... i don't want to give back what we've

      worked so hard for to take.... like affordable health care,

      pensions, decent wages... wah... i like making 30 times what my

      workers make... wah... wah... my great grandpa would be proud of

      me.... wah... he paid 90% tax and was still rich while this country

      led the industrial revolution. they built bridges, dams, etc.. now

      we watch them all fall apart but look how rich i am.... wah...

      wah... take more away from everyone else.... wah... wah.... don't

      tax me like the old days... wah... i like paying less tax than the

      middle class.... wah.... wah..... i'm too big to fail so I get my

      bailout welfare check.... how do you like that free market

      capitalism system... the cost of living skyrockets and I get to pay

      my workers wages from over 10 years ago.... and they get to foot the

      bill for high medical costs, etc... I can't wait until I'm 66 so I

      can draw the social security check that I don't even contribute to

      for my income is way over 100k and they don't make me pay... ah...

      and I work real hard. my job requires me to say the word no...

      that's all i need to do.... wah... wah.... socialism is what the

      bailouts were. and those bailout recipients are the first ones to

      collect on social security when eligible even though they never paid

      social security tax on income above 100k per year. hey, they jacked

      up the price of college enough now so it's affordable by even less

      people even though it was free when they went in the 60's and

      70's..... there is a pharmaceutical commercial during every

      commercial break on every channel. the rich politicians figured out

      how to make more money off legal drugs than the illegal drugs.

      that's why the only places that exist today are wal-mart and health

      care companies......... it's de-regulation from a republican

      controlled senate, house, and president that allowed the financial

      industry to screw everyone but the upper class...... the flipping

      house epidemic was done while the FBI and CIA were told to only deal

      with 911. how patriotic.... they flipped houses like pancakes

      causing them to inflate to ridiculous prices. then they pass the

      buck allowing people to think it was the less fortunate who caused

      the prices to go up. so full of doo doo..... the republicans had

      the house and senate since 1995 with the exception of not having the

      senate for 2001 and 2002. The democrats took over the house and

      senate in 2007 and were left with the biggest deficit we've ever had

      due to a war we were lied into by the president. this same president

      was the biggest abuser of censorship pulling the plugs on anything

      negative towards the greedy muck they ran when they had the house,

      senate, and presidency for 4 whole years from 2003 until the end of

      2006 that put this country in this mess. 4 years of crooked greedy

      slime will now take 20 years to fix....... and they only care about

      deficits now that we have a democrat president... zzzzzzzzz........

      regan unleashed the beast by allowing that Merrill Lynch guy to be

      his right hand and selling this country into the stock market. we

      are forced to be gamblers........ the stock market is the only thing

      keeping this country afloat... it's just another vehicle used by the

      rich to take everyone elses money. it's never an even playing

      field... no one can afford the expensive high frequency trading

      servers that they rent........ how can we have pride in a country

      that only can stay afloat through deceit and exploitation.........
      • Ethan 8 months ago
        You sound like an idiot, congratulations. If you're complaining about paying taxes, be glad you got a job. If you don't have a job, get off your computer and go look for one.
      • STEVE 8 months ago
        Once was OK, but EVERY article? Please!
    • Invest  •  9 months ago
      It will take a long time for the economy to recover and rebalance from the mortgage debt bubble. After the market crash of 1929-1930, there was the "lost decade" of the Great Depression. After the market crash of 1972-73, there was the "lost decade" of "Stagflation". In both instances, large government spending did little to improve jobs (unemployment topped at 23% in 1930's, and over 10% in 1970's), but the spending did create massive amounts of inflation.

      Both prior "lost decades" were due to massive debt bubbles -- corporate debt and stock margin accounts in the 1930's, and government debt (Vietnam War and Great Society) in the 1970's. In each instance it took the economy almost a decade to de-leverage to more stable equity positions. The latest "Great Recession" is the result of a debt bubble in mortgages. Unfortunately, it looks like we are in the process of creating another debt bubble in government debt (like the late 1960's early 1970's) trying to intervene in the natural rebalancing process of the economy.
    • DanielK  •  9 months ago
      Plenty of ignorant statements like: The wealthy control the government. Consider that, If that were true...Obama would not be President. And our moving toward more socialism would not be happening.
    • Robert  •  9 months ago
      The numbers spell out uncertainty! Which means those that can spend and juice the economy will not. Catch 22! No money flowing, no growth, no jobs. Survival mode in play. Game plan -cash. Wall Street is gambling with peoples retirement - not again will I be fooled! Banks are headed for a dive even if there is another Buffet around.
    • Kenny  •  9 months ago
      If no QE3 they may have to give the all #$%$ clear speech and REIT'S start making money. Dallas will double in ten years, New home starts are way down. Housing in some areas will take off, not all areas. But intrest rates go back to 6% and the little man still not make shyyyyt.
    • Starider Starider  •  9 months ago
      1st bernanke and the fed have done a great deal of damage to the currency and high inflation is going to be the only way to fix the mess they made....
      ..
      2nd bernanke would be more on target by blaming the executive branch not the legislative branch

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