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    Debt Ceiling Uncertainty: Big Banks Take Evasive Action, The FT Says

    Updated from 1:05 p.m. EDT
    Update: "Even a short suspension of payments on principal or interest on the Treasury's debt obligations could cause severe disruptions in financial markets and the payments system," Bernanke said in a speech prepared for an event sponsored by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

    Earlier: Later today, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and top Congressional leaders will be on hand for a conference entitled: The Debt Ceiling, Fiscal Plans, and Market Jitters: Where Do We Go From Here?

    Where do we go from here? At this point, nobody really knows.

    Depending you who you ask, a failure to raise the debt ceiling by the Aug. 2 deadline could bring about economic catastrophe…or be no big deal. (See: "No Downside" to Not Raising the Debt Ceiling, Says Chris Whalen)

    Given the huge range of outcomes, and the political uncertainty underlying them, some banks are taking precautions by "preparing to cut their use of U.S. Treasuries in August," The FT reports. "One strategy…is to have more cash on hand to put up as collateral against derivatives and other transactions, decreasing the financial system's reliance on Treasuries."

    The U.S. Treasury market is the world's deepest and most liquid, precisely why it's used as a substitute for cash in many financial transactions. Should the financial system become less reliant on Treasuries, the decreased demand would likely result in lower prices and higher yields, making it tougher on U.S. borrowers -- both public and private. Plus, many of those same banks the FT says are thinking about decreasing their use of Treasuries are also big holders of U.S. debt, meaning they could be shooting themselves in the foot if they really pursue this strategy.

    The good news here is that prior to Tuesday, Treasury yields have been falling steadily -- even as the debt ceiling deadline approaches. As Dan Gross and I discuss in the accompanying video, that means the market is really worried (yet) about Aug. 2…or is flying blindly toward disaster.

    One other thought: Increased demand for cash as collateral could put upward pressure on the dollar, which tends to be deflationary in the current environment…which tends to be good for Treasuries.

    Aaron Task is the host of The Daily Ticker. You can follow him on Twitter at @atask or email him at altask@yahoo.com

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    82 comments

    • bob h  •  10 months ago
      Gee.. somewhere the Russians are laughing their #$%$ off at us since the same thing, fiscally, basically happened to them when they went after Afghanistan.
    • Daniel Crickett  •  10 months ago
      All I can say is, short the market, go long on gold
    • kneelnbob  •  11 months ago
      Well, here is NAFTA, here is the result of voting for the media-fed candidates, here is the result of everyones' own self-interest, here is the result of greed. Until everyone loses instead of just everyones' neighbors, things will remain status-quo. Wait until this situation finally does implode. When we do not attempt to make changes they will be made for us...

      THE FED NEEDS TO GO AWAY!!!

      HERE IS A NEWS FLASH...WHEN THE ONLY WAY TO STAVE OFF ECONOMIC DISASTER CAUSED BY DEBT IS TO CREATE MORE DEBT OR INCREASE DEBT - WE HAVE ALREADY REACHED ECONOMIC DISASTER!!!!

      STOP VOTING FOR THE IDIOTS THAT HAVE BEEN CONTRIBUTORS OF THIS SITUATION!!! WE ARE NOT DEMOCRATS OR REPUBLICANS...WE ARE AMER"I"CANS!!!

      NOW ACT LIKE IT!!!!!
    • Dick Head  •  11 months ago
      BOA did not acquire Countrywide because they were stupid ���..
      they didn't do it for the profits to be gained from Countrywide ... they did it so the Government HAD to bail them out.

      It would have been disastrous to let the banks fail ... but it would have been a pure disaster and we could have dealt with it.... now we've got this quagmire, this perversion of justice, this pointing of fingers. Thanks George W. Bumbling Unwitting Sycophant of the Hubris!
      • Roger 11 months ago
        Fail to see how you can still blame GWB. Oh...right, you're a liberal idiot! I guess your name says it all.
    • Positive Spin  •  11 months ago
      The debt limit has been raised over 70 times in the last 50 years! So much for self control of our politicians in Washington DC. They have proven themselves, to be a joke.
      • beginnerGamer 11 months ago
        Joke? I'm not laughing...
      • Reality 11 months ago
        Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and Defense make up 80% of the budget. What are you going to cut?
      • Steve 11 months ago
        @Reality: What to cut? Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, Defense, AND the other 20%
    • Jim  •  11 months ago
      There should have been new regulations on the banks as well as Wall Street to end To Big To Fail.
      • Don 11 months ago
        Who would have bought 1) Wachovia 2) WaMu 3) Countrywide 4) Merrill 5,6,7)the assets of Lehman, Bear Stearns and the ohers if it wasn't for the big banks? why were the Fed and Treas Sec scrambling to make these shotgun marriages if tjhey wanted to make the big banks smaller, not bigger? (See the HBO documentary Too Bit to Fail)
        Can't have it both ways. Can't say we need to end big banks and then say we need to combine the bad banks with the good.
      • hen na gaijin 11 months ago
        Tell that to the GOP.
      • David 11 months ago
        How about new regulations on the Federal Gvt. Their the ones that started all this mess.
    • Tailgunnar  •  11 months ago
      Our system permits banks to loan out 8X, 12X, heck even 30X the amount of money that they have in deposits, a situation which makes it almost IMPOSSIBLE to lose money unless you are a complete idiot (ie a 1 million dollar base can be loaned out for 15 million, at a 5% return that's 750 thousand, or 75% return on your capital base).
      Despite this, we are constantly wringing our hands over banks blowing up. LET THEM! The only way out of our situation is to let some major banks go down and to teach the survivors that we're not going to take it any more.
      • cat_bow 11 months ago
        Enjoy that .14 cent 401K.
      • So True 11 months ago
        Our system has always been 10x btw. It is very possible to lose money when people default on the debt.
      • Tailgunnar 11 months ago
        Wrong! If money is loaned against realistic collateral, it's almost impossible to lose money. Only when unbridled greed glazes over sound lending principles can losses happen, and when that happens, the bank should go under.
    • Ken  •  11 months ago
      No wonder Obamas hair has turned grey. Soon, he will look like Father Xmas.
      • ex 11 months ago
        GOOD! He may just as well be Father Xmas because he certainly has given out a lot of presents at a high cost to the people. OOPS! I forgot, it isn't his money so that makes it evern more fun.
    • M-Dealio  •  11 months ago
      The US goes into default only if it does not pay interest out on all the T-bills.
      That is a very different subject than selling more bonds so our politicians can spend more of what we don't have....
    • SeQuEnTiAL  •  11 months ago
      The debt limit has been raised every single time we reached it, even under Bush 2. Politicians are always against the debt limit, until they realize that not raising it chokes off the easy money supply the government gets from the Fed Reserve for funding. The government does not have the stomach to tax the people to get this money back - it will always be easier to take out loans, and this is why the debt limit is continually being raised.
      People who make a big deal about it do not understand how the economy "really" works, not just how it "appears" to work. It's really all debt based fakery.
    • Steven  •  10 months ago
      i am a somewhat educated person....i realize other people do have more degrees or no degrees...i am not a snob and believe in the veracity of the manical homeless to the robotical educated...

      or vice-versa

      i am southern...and have read all religions and ways of thought...i am going to compare our government to the idol of baal with the feet of clay/metal that some prophet related in a dream...

      or...to samuel beckett....in "waiting for godot..." need i say more?
    • Susan  •  10 months ago
      One of the seven deadly sins is at work here, holding our nation hostage for either party's gain, whether it be monetary or political, will be interesting to see what the 50 million senior citizens have to say.
    • Gary Hightower  •  11 months ago
      Remember Y2K? The powers that be warned of a complete catastrophe.
      Nothing happened after we spent millions of dollars on our computer systems.
      Same thing. They just want us scared.
    • Andrew The great  •  11 months ago
      Shine some light on these cockroaches and watch them scatter.

      Better yet, drop Napalm on them.

      Greasy usury M-F's.
    • Captain of lower taxes  •  11 months ago
      Smoke some more crack Washington, stop spending.
    • DavidS  •  11 months ago
      Radical actions engender radical reactions and never forget the law of unintended consequences. Financial institutions like predictability. Just having this discussion is causing jitters in the financial markets. If they actually don't raise the ceiling be prepared for the worst. It may not happen but you better not take risks with what you can't afford to lose.
    • Positive Spin  •  11 months ago
      We need a good economic catastrophe to begin rebuilding our failed economy. For too many years it has primarily been based on debt and spending! Continuing to finance the stupidity, will be a lesson in futility! Americans went through much economic pain and change in the 1930's, but we refuse to accept similar pain and change today. I guess we want to push it down the road, on the shoulders of our children, and grandchildren, What cowards we are!
    • Tailgunnar  •  11 months ago
      To all of you tea party bashers, my response is this: you can continue to live with your head in the sand and support the crap that's been going on in this country for the last 30 years that got us here, or you can support something different. I say different sounds better.
      All we need is to have a simple rule for our Congress: you can spend money on whatever you want, we'll let you slug it out and decide what you think is most important. We're just going to limit the amount to whatever you take in in revenues. Pretty simple.
    • Clifford  •  11 months ago
      My Fellow Americans,

      The Balanced Budget Amendment FIRST or SHUT IT DOWN! Otherwise, my friends, WE ARE TOAST!

      If you don't think INCREASING the National DEBT limit $2 TRILLION BUCKS will have the same EXTREME, draconian, destructive AND devastating effect on our economy as INCREASING TAXES $2 TRILLION BUCKS, you���re either REALLY, REALLY stupid���..or a Democrat.
      ���But I repeat myself��� - Mark Twain.

      I strongly recommend a Balanced Budget Amendment that REQUIRES a 3/5 majority (60%) of BOTH Houses of Congress to increase the National DEBT limit on the American people and to continue to 'dump' (we're WAY past 'investment', we're into 'shoplifting') TRILLIONS and TRILLIONS of dollars 'onto the backs of our children and grandchildren'. We have got to raise the requirements for Congress to borrow money. It���s that simple.

      Regardless of WHO or what party is in office���.WE the people, of the people, by the people and for the people (and the American Taxpayer) have got to protect ourselves, our children and our grandchildren from future Presidents, Congresses, Supreme Courts, the Federal Reserve and MOST importantly, those d*mn unions and lobbyists!

      On March 20, 2006 the National Debt stood at $8.3 TRILLION.

      Quote:

      ���The fact that we are here today to debate raising America���s debt limit is a sign of leadership failure. It is a sign that the U.S. Government can���t pay its own bills. It is a sign that we now depend on ongoing financial assistance from foreign countries to finance our Government���s reckless fiscal policies���

      Increasing America���s debt weakens us domestically and internationally. Leadership means that ���the buck stops here.��� Instead, Washington is shifting the burden of bad choices today onto the backs of our children and grandchildren. America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership. Americans deserve better.���

      - Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL), March 20, 2006

      Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) and ALL the Senate Democrats voted AGAINST increasing the National Debt.

      And NOW...POTUS Obama has expressed ���regret��� for his vote??? Well so do a lot of Americans, Mr. President, so do a lot of ���taxpaying��� Americans.

      What about the rest of the Senate Democrats, Mr. President? Do they also regret THEIR votes?? Nobody is buying the lies and B.S. you and the Democrats are shoveling anymore, Mr. President.

      After 70 years of real world ���experience', it should be obvious that POTUS Obama and the Democrats have proven, BEYOND a doubt, that this Keynesian Macro-Economics ���Theory��� has been thoroughly 'Myth Busted'.

      Fiscal responsibility and reigning in Federal spending is even more imperative NOW than ever before. Financially, NOTHING is more important for the future of our children and grandchildren than passing the Balanced Budget Amendment IMMEDIATELY, and NO! NOT waiting 5 more d*mn years!

      The DJIA FALLS 270+ POINTS!! (06/01/2011) and Democrats haven't submitted a Budget in 755+ days and refuse to submit one? Stupid and irresponsible leadership! Priceless

      Folks, WE are going to have an ���economic��� Armageddon of Biblical (or tsunami!) proportions and SOON. And it is coming fast, furious, devastating and long. WE are laying waste to our nation���s economic future.

      Except for a ���misery index��� that is far worse than even that under President Carter (D), this little economic ���mess���, that POTUS Obama and his evil little wretched Democrats have ���continued��� on our country���.is just a math problem. So���

      Please give generously to your favorite charitable and/or religious organizations. These are the REAL heroes that provide selflessly for those less fortunate than our selves. And they need the money a lot more now than the Federal government ever will.

      Charitable giving comes from the American heart, NOT from the American Taxpayer i.e., the Federal Government.
    • boat man  •  11 months ago
      we the people...... have got news for washington, we the people are broke, out of work, our homes are not worth a dime, our family do not have the money to buy gas or food, or medine we need. so help ALL the over seas people you want to help and steel ALL you want. because we the people do not have a choice of ALL the washington pros. are voting the way the money is stacked. "WE THE PEOPLE..... what about the american people.

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