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    ECRI’s Achuthan: “No Upturn Yet…More Weakness” Ahead, But Jury Still Out on Recession

    Last spring, when most economists were talking about a second-half recovery, Economic Cycle Research Institute co-founder Lakshman Achuthan came on The Daily Ticker and declared a global summer slowdown was coming.

    Now that Wall Street consensus has turned extremely bearish on the economy, we figured it was time to check back with Achuthan to get his current view.

    "We've got more weakness in front of us," he says. "We don't see any upturn yet."

    Still, ECRI is not ready to declare a new recession is imminent, much less already started as many others contend. "The jury is still out," Achuthan says. "Our indicators have not gone to the point where we can definitely say 'boom it's a recession.' Problem is they haven't turned up either, it's a very persistent decline in these indicators."

    As for the myriad other economists now putting odds on a recession, Achuthan believes they are playing a "dangerous" game. "It's the illusion of precision," he says. "If you take a look at whoever's making those calls [and] look at their track record of calling recessions I think you'll be unimpressed."

    Check the accompanying video for more with Achuthan, including his view on the economic impact of Hurricane Irene and whether all the talk about a recession can become self-fulfilling and help create one.

    Aaron Task is the host of The Daily Ticker. You can follow him on Twitter at @atask or email him at altask@yahoo.com

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    27 comments

    • frankmargel.com  •  8 months ago
      Good day to Aaron and Achuthan. Hello to all my friends and pals right here on the Ticker. Lack of leadership and convoluted call makers are just the tip of the ice berg. Inflation and higher taxes on deck for America. The solution? Manufacture products and service that America can afford. We tried that and in the past and it always worked. HMMM! Go tea Party America! Thanks to the Ticker gang! Have a great day!
    • Another Opinion  •  8 months ago
      I predict there is a 50/50 chance that I am right or wrong on the economy...Now pay me!!!
    • A Yahoo! User  •  8 months ago
      OK.......I'll say it......."Boom...it's a recession!"
    • Mozart  •  8 months ago
      I'm going to go out on a limb like most economists do, and call a 50/50 chance of a recession. But I will also say that there is a 50/50 chance that there won't be a recession.
    • usok  •  8 months ago
      What is he talking about? No upturn, no recession etc... Why was he invited here?
    • Great-Wall of Mart  •  8 months ago
      General Electric



      General Electric is planning to move its 115-year-old X-ray division from Waukesha, Wis., to Beijing. In addition to moving the headquarters, the company will invest $2 billion in China and train more than 65 engineers and create six research centers. This is the same GE that made $5.1 billion in the United States last year, but paid no taxes-the same company that employs more people overseas than it does in the united States.



      So let me get this straight. President Obama appointed GE Chairman Jeff Immelt to head his commission on job creation (job czar). Immelt is supposed to help create jobs.



      I guess the President forgot to tell him in which country he was supposed to be creating those jobs.



      If this doesn't show you the total lack of leadership of this President, I don't know what does.
    • John  •  8 months ago
      Trading house thrive & drive VOLATILITY. They make their money on fees on every BUY ..and every SELL! Just another form of Wall Street manipulation.....
    • Adam  •  8 months ago
      According to Bernanke's Jackson Hole speech we have an "ensuing recession."

      "It may take some time, but we can reasonably expect to see a return to growth rates and employment levels consistent with those underlying fundamentals. In the interim, however, the challenges for US economic policymakers are twofold: first, to help our economy further recover from the crisis and the ensuing recession, and second, to do so in a way that will allow the economy to realize its longer-term growth potential."
    • offshorefisherman  •  8 months ago
      The jury is not out, the 2nd recession has already be gone. 12 states in the USA are in a recession finacial loop. For short they can,t balance there books, that means more layoffs all over the USA in the next year, the day will come when most of dummy,s that have stocks in the stock market figue out it isn,t worth it, the stock market is a totaly waist of time and money, you make nothing unless your a huge investor like in the millions at a time. Big Ben ran out of Bullets his last resort was the long term Treasury bonds, and that is the biggest joke the USA has ever pulled on the world, thats going to BANG like a huge atomic bomb, and they will be acting off all those worthless bonds to the highest bidders. Big B is trying to keep a lid on that but he will not be able to because those things LOOSE money the day they are bought. The recession is here already and this one will take us the USA people OUT and down for the count for a long time.These large Corps. are flushed with so much cash they don,t know what to do with it, and the banks also. all of this is the sign of a huge POP goes the USA ecconomy really soon, and i forgot to mention the banks are giving a joke of a interest rate on working peoples saving while there health insurance is going up every 6 months. When this Bubble the USA has created the nosie will be so loud when it pop,s that there will be billions of worths USA bucks floating around the world in the wind and no one is going to want to pick them up off the street. You better have some gold and silver, because that will be the only thing worth anything in the comming years, the banks will raise interst rates on loans to balance all there looses that small bussiness will not be able to get money and home owners will not be able to buy new homes. Good luck people the FAT CATS finially ran this country in the ground and took all the hard working people with it. DUMP THOSE 401k,s now before your retirement check every month from them will not even buy a couple tanks of gas.
      • Jay 8 months ago
        Speak English
      • A Yahoo! User 8 months ago
        #$%$.....gonna eat the muzzle and blow my brains out
    • Money Multiplier Man  •  8 months ago
      That's why he is never wrong, he sits on the fence until a recession becomes obvious from real time data and then calls it.
      • Barbara 8 months ago
        And then he also says "As we predicted for subscribers to our Paid Newsletter back in August..." :-)
    • Daemonicus  •  8 months ago
      If Bernanke only had printed 16 Trillion dollars, we would not be facing a recession.
      • chebby'41 8 months ago
        The Federal Reserve does not print money!
      • frankmargel.com 8 months ago
        Ben is setting monetary policy and from that money is printed! Yor comment is awesome! Post often and keep it live! Thanks! Thumbs up! Wise guy! LMFAO!
      • Another Opinion 8 months ago
        The fed prints Notes, that are converted to $$$. What is the difference?
    • The Best  •  8 months ago
      This is on the verge of complete stupidity! The markets have climbed for 2 years on BAD NEWS!!!!! Not once have the jobless claims go down every month, not once has our debt gone down, not once have we had no banl closures, not once have we had any ECONOMIC GOOD NEWS and the markets rose! and now it takes a little dump and all of a sudden the market cares about good news?? #$%$... it was a sell off and now it will rise again, with or without good economic news. I cannot believe how each day people are looking for why the market went up or why it went down. Its called investing and most of AMERICANS DO NOT INVEST!!!!!!
      • frankmargel.com 8 months ago
        Thanks! I call it a depression... Thumbs up!
      • Money Multiplier Man 8 months ago
        Not once have the jobless claims gone down every month? Huh?
      • raji 8 months ago
        Markets are not true indicators of the current economy
    • Dre  •  8 months ago
      GO TO HELL BERNANKE , I WISH THE WORST ON YOU AND YOUR WHOLE FFFFFFFF$%^IN FAMILY. TELL THE TRUTH YOU A#% WIPE.
    • Vijay  •  8 months ago
      Jury is out on Wall Street he should state. Everyone all over this nation has and already been on a Recession. When Wall Street gets the message we would be in a deep depression. When will these people from Wall Street see that people are suffering all over this land? I guess they can push up commodities and oil by using these excuses to justify why markets are going higher when 70% of Americans are catching hell. Money Managers, Banks and Big oil will ruin America even further than what we are today. Just let them keep pushing food and gasoline higher and see a Depression faster than ever. No jobs, bad housing data, and every bad data have been ignored by Wall Street. This means when trouble comes, Wall Street wil fall very hard.
    • Zeek  •  8 months ago
      There will be no recession. Irene's winds and rains blew and washed all the economic woes of the country away.
    • Sean  •  8 months ago
      Ministry of Happy Thoughts declares all is good
    • blame yourself  •  8 months ago
      its an illusion- he said- because the media is lieing he said=listen to this guy- he's sending you coded messages for- were screwed
    • blame yourself  •  8 months ago
      "If you ignore the facts were doing fine" he said :)
    • blame yourself  •  8 months ago
      does his best to deny its here and coming but can't
    • AZRon  •  8 months ago
      They said the recession was over in June, 2009. I say it never ended and will get worse until there is a regime change in DC. Hopefully in Jan., 2013.

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