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    The Fed Can’t Help What’s Really Ailing the U.S. Economy: Lance Roberts

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    Stocks took another beating on Monday after confidence waned over the ability of Europe's finance ministers to find a solution to the ongoing Eurozone debt crisis. The Dow Jones Industrial was down 1.8%, or 209 points, to 11,300 at 2 p.m. ET, and the S&P 500 was down 1.8%, or 21 points, to 1,195.

    Since the beginning of the summer, large market swings have become commonplace. In August, the average trading range on the Dow was more than 300 points, reports the AP.

    But the summer's sell-off is much to be expected, according to Lance Roberts, CEO and chief economist at Streettalk Advisors.

    He says all you have to do is look back to 2010 when the Federal Reserve's first round of quantitative easing ended with about a 20 percent drop in stocks. The same thing is happening today after the Fed took its foot off the pedal and concluded QE2. The debt-ceiling debate in Washington and the downgrade of the country's triple-A rating certainly also added to the drop, but those factors were not the impetus, according to Roberts.

    So what's the problem?

    "The problem is the goal of the Fed is to use quantitative easing to try to get the economy going. The problem is the economy part is not happening," Roberts tells The Daily Ticker's Aaron Task in the accompanying interview. "Consumers are over-leveraged. You are not going to get businesses to hire because their number one concern isn't the ability to get credit. Their concern is poor sales."

    All this comes ahead of the Fed's two-day meeting this week where many suspect Chairman Ben Bernanke will announce more easing in one shape or another.

    But Roberts thinks the Fed is out of bullets and has reached a point of diminishing returns when it comes to what it can do to help the economy. And to top that off, today's low interest rates are at what history has shown to be recession or depression-era levels, explains Roberts.

    What does this mean for the markets?

    Stocks have already slipped more than15% in recent months. Should the country dip back into a recession, Roberts predicts stocks will likely drop another 15% to 20% before rebounding.

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    73 comments

    • frankmargel.com  •  8 months ago
      The bank friendly FED is covered in a previous post, read John Gault! Thanks America! NEXT!
    • burton  •  8 months ago
      We need jobs. Not much the Feds can do about that. We only manufacture 40% of the goods we consume and the other 60% are never coming back. Expect the recession to get worst.
    • anonymous2  •  8 months ago
      who says or believes FED is trying to help the us economy ;)

      FED, under the leadership of crook bernanke, is simply trying to prop up the wall street at the cost of main street.
    • John Galt  •  8 months ago
      The Fed caused it!!! They make it worse by propping up the zombie banks!!! They give away our money all over the place to make sure the rich banksters stay in power. When will people come to realize that the FED is nothing more than a banking cartel. A wolf in sheeps clothing!
    • Bobo  •  8 months ago
      ""Consumers are over-leveraged" Code word for Either paid more for their home then they can sell now for, or upside down on their mortgage,
      It is against some rule to say the housing is causing the economic slowdown.
      It must never e said.
      • kizug 8 months ago
        Agree Bobo but then they are following the Government who is upside down on its debts
      • Rick Diculous 8 months ago
        Actually, there is a substantial portion of consumers who are maxed out on their credit cards and who are having trouble making payments. This = "consumers are over-leveraged" and it has nothing to do with housing.
    • montgomery  •  8 months ago
      Most people know the Fed's problem; it is the FED itself. Nearly "out of bullets"? Save the last one for yourself, BERNANKE.
      • Allen 8 months ago
        I've got six for him if he runs out.
    • Mao Knows Best  •  8 months ago
      The Federal Reserve Act, WITHOUT the NEW YORK INVESTMENT BANKS interfering,
      provided the FINANCIAL grease,
      that allowed the LARGEST expansion of the ECONOMY,
      OUT of POVERTY, WORLDWIDE,
      in the HISTORY of the WORLD.

      Get the NEW YORK INVESTMENT BANKS OUT of THE FED.

      The SET UP was ALL BILL CLINTON, PHIL GRAMM, ALAN GREENSPAN and ROBERT RUEBEN, LARRY SUMMERS and TIN GEITHNER, to name a few, and
      the Re-PEAL of the Glass-Steagal Act.

      1.) Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act, 1999.
      (50 years, +300 million dollars spent by BANKS to get it done)

      The STING was ALL GEORGE BUSH : the NAILS in the COFFIN with the complete
      Deregulation of the financial sector by the

      2.) Financial Services Modernization Act of 2000, and.
      3.) Commodity Futures Modernization Act of 2001.

      These absolutely EVIL deeds by Congress and Clinton and Bush,
      made something that was completely ILLEGAL for 60+ years LEGAL.

      Ultimately, it's all on POLITICIANS who let these NEW YORK INVESTMENT BANKERS
      DERIVATIVE SCHEMES be insured by the FEDERAL RESERVE and the AMERICAN TAXPAYER.
      • Couponing Mamma 8 months ago
        Please write an official paper and have it published in a scholarly source detailing these exact happeings and cite your sources. Thanks!
      • Mao Knows Best 8 months ago
        If your College educated and took an economics course this information is ACADEMIC.
        AS a direct result of the USA' GREAT DEPRESSION,
        the world was treated to the REACTIONARY policies, of the WORLDWIDE BANKING collapse,
        to Adolf Hitler, Joeseph Stalin and Chairman Mao.
        The whole world's BANKS we're in bed with the USA's banking system, and they STILL are.
        10 % Fractional Reserve Banking is conditioned on holding 10 % of liquid cash or other assets, in any financial or borrowing transaction at, or with the FEDERAL RESERVE banking system, indeminified/insured by the TAXPAYERS.

        FDR passed the Glass-Steagall Act, in response to COMMERCIAL Banks engaging in INVESTMENT BANKING, which produced the CRASH of 1929.
        Then, this was based on the "Margin Calls" from Hell, whereby, investors were not ABLE to EVEN cover 10% of their "investments in stocks and bonds."

        Investment Banking is all predicated on holding less than 10 % in cash, or "skin in the game." By Monetizing Investment Banking losses on the PUBLIC, GRAMM-LEACH-BLILEY Act, 1999, POLITICIANS we're EVADING all the tough FISCAL choices or PROMISES to voters.
        For a really GOOD short narative on the subject see " INSIDE JOB."
      • Lisa 8 months ago
        Couponing Mamma--please watch Inside Job. It explains everything is a very clear and understandable way.
    • MICHAEL  •  8 months ago
      the Baby boom generation is retiring. I am part of it. to live the boomers are pulling money out of the markets to spend, the stock market should continuje to decline. the only way to keep boomers from pulling money out of the market is to raise interest rates. if they have more income then they wont have to sell stocks. the only reason this is not happening is that the FED has sold out and is keeping interest rates low to finance the deficit. sad...
    • yea yea  •  8 months ago
      Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes her laws.
      Mayer Amschel Rothschild ...
    • niceguy  •  8 months ago
      I hate to say this but america is in trouble because most american's will not overpay u.s. merchants with over priced products . The truth is we can get products from other countries at a much lower price. So america is lost unless we start with simplicity and stop other countries from taking america's work force and products
      • pbandj 8 months ago
        that sounds good, but how are you going to keep corporations from outsourcing jobs to countries where the labor force makes much less than our labor force? i say we just enjoy what we have here and just get used to a higher unemployment rate. it isn't that bad.
    • whatasituation  •  8 months ago
      But folks still insist that either Obama, or the Fed, CAN solve all of our problems! Wishful thinking is a powerful force.
    • Mao Knows Best  •  8 months ago
      All this RICH/poor MAN this, RICH/poor MAN that,
      is all a bunch of HOGWASH.
      If your a DEMOCRAT or a REPUBLICAN,
      your MAN, WOMAN or significant other
      doesn't KNOW the MEANING of the WORD "NO" ,
      when it comes to SPENDING the TAXPAYERS money . They borrow 44 cents of evrey dollar they spend.
      I don't care what CRAP, he or she brought HOME
      to YOUR GHETTO, Middle Class Hood,
      or GATED NEIGHBORHOOD.
      You have BEEN PLAYED,
      not just for the UNITED STATES' 14 TRILLION DOLLAR DEFICIT,
      but for THE WORLD's DEFICIT of "67 TRILLION DOLLARS".
      Quote Mort Zuckerman, US NEWS and WORLD REPORT.

      You can CUT 70 % of SPENDING,
      you can RAISE TAXES on THE RICH to 90% of EVERYTHING THEY OWN,
      and you WON"T EVEN DENT THAT NUMBER.
      Not in a MILLION YEARS.

      We have COMPLETELY forgotten the LESSONS of the GREAT DEPRESSION and the LAWS PRESIDENT ROOSEVELT left us (Banking, Labor, Social Security etc), to
      PREVENT all this GARBAGE from Happening AGAIN
    • Quincy Magoo  •  8 months ago
      The Fed isn't a maker of policy. The Fed isn't even that good at providing sound advice, since they can't seem to predict anything. The Fed can create inflation in food and energy, though, which boosts the bottom line of a couple of sectors. I believe the Fed is actually basing their "solutions" on bad philosophy: the Fed believes in laissez-faire markets. "Prop up the stock market and economic prosperity is just around the corner" seems to be their thinking. The stock market does not drive the economy, it is a lagging indicator of potential future profits. Companies can be highly profitable in a down economy if they are careful with costs. The US is in economic decline because of laissez-faire market policies, in part, and the Fed is a major promoter of these policies. Until we get on a different track, everyone is powerless to move the economy in the right direction. We're headed for the bottom, and it is a loooong fall.
    • AmericansFirst  •  8 months ago
      Clinton Perot Gephardt Krushef all forecast this !
    • I am mad  •  8 months ago
      The problem is zero interest rate. You expect me to lend you money at ~0% rate while you may not return the pricinal? Forget it, I do not even want to put them in bank. I buy either some gold or bury them in a jar.
    • Jaz Winder  •  8 months ago
      Heres whats so wrong with the US 1. Politicians from both sides competed to increase buyin power by allowing in cheap Chinese etc imports , its gone out of control all the factories and jobs have gone there and they dunno how to get Amerians to buy US made goods now or bring back production to the US , firm legislation is needed for which none of the politicians have the resolve the blame game and malaise continues 2. Financial Regulatory and Rating Agencies were manned by dimwits, the smart kids were putting proposals to the Sc, etc and milking the system , dimwits salaried staff, didnt know the hell what was going on , papers bloated the market without underlying productivity increase , more money allowed to be printed instead of cancelling the papers which no one has the resolve to do , not then not now 3. Decline in moral and ethical standards all round...they dont teach good moral behaviour in schools anymore , eduvation has become too'secular' , more and more brocken homes divorces etc means collapse of the values that bind people to responsible behavious as children brothers and sisters, family community etc...today no one gives a #$%$ if he's bad because everyone is... and no politician wants to openly admit this or canvass for change .
    • Tsalagi Elder  •  8 months ago
      look up QE 3 Will it do anything Fred McGuire..GREAT READ!!!!
    • SarahP  •  8 months ago
      So, how is that "Hope & Change" working out for you?
    • Rich  •  8 months ago
      Why don't we sell terrority. Which state should go first?
    • Jay  •  8 months ago
      The Fed can't fix what is wrong with the economy. Poor fiscal policy and poor business climate. We really need a change in Washington.

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