Fresh from celebrating the fourth of July, those watching the jobs report can keep the party going with some better-than-expected numbers.
Employers added 195,000 jobs in June versus expectations of 165,000, while the unemployment rate remained at 7.6% (pretty much inline with consensus, which was for 7.5% or 7.6% depending on what estimates you look at).
Also, non-farm payrolls were revised higher for April and May to the tune of 70,000 more jobs than previously reported.
Bob Brusca, chief economist at FAO Economics tells The Daily Ticker it’s a good report but "like all of these reports it’s got some good, bad and ugly parts."
Brusca says the unemployment rate is unchanged, because while the economy is adding jobs, it’s adding just enough to keep up with population growth. In other words, we’re treading water.
The number of people employed part-time for economic reasons (in other words, not because they want to) increased by 322,000 to 8.2 million in June. Brusca says this is a material increase and one that is concerning.
Also, while employment rose in leisure and hospitality, professional services, retail, healthcare, and financial activities, gains in manufacturing and construction were little-changed in June despite the strength in the housing market.
Check out the video to see Brusca explain why this matters, and also why we’re not seeing more strength in those areas.
Brusca says in terms of Fed policy, this report puts the Fed “on path to start tapering off in September.”
“The Fed is sort of on automatic pilot to taper unless something happens,” he contends. Comparing it to a videotape replay at football games, Brusca says the decision on the field holds unless the video can decisively overturn it. In this case, unless the data decisively overturns the Fed road map in the next several months, the decision is going to stand. Brusca isn't expecting the kind of data needed to overturn the Fed's decision.
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