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    To Hell With What the Fed Says, “Inflation Is Already Here”: Mike Pento

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    The Fed kept rates at zero Wednesday and Chairman Ben Bernanke practically guaranteed more action by the central bank to boost the economy during his press conference following the FOMC meeting. (See: Borrowers Win, Savers Lose as Fed Stands Pat — Again)

    In justifying it's uber-easy stance, the Fed cited a "subdued outlook for inflation," which has "moderated since earlier in the year as prices of energy and some commodities have declined from their peaks."

    That's poppycock, according to Michael Pento, president of Pento Portfolio Strategies and a senior strategy at Agora Financial.

    "Inflation is already here," Pento says, citing the following stats:

    Inflation: The Consumer Price Index is up 3.9% on a year-over-year basis and Pento (among many others) believes that index grossly underestimates inflation in the real world.

    The Misery Index: A combination of unemployment plus CPI inflation, the Misery Index recently hit a 28-year high. (If history is prologue, that's bad news for President Obama.)

    Money Supply: M2 Money Supply has grown over 10% in the past 12 months through September. 'They'll claim the money is staying in the banking system but it's not, it's being lent out," Pento says, citing a recent uptick in Commercial & Industrial loans as evidence.

    Given the Fed's apparent willingness to ignore these realities, Pento is acutely concerned that inflationary pressures will accelerate in the weeks and months ahead. Admittedly, that's something he's long warned about, with mixed results. But the strategist has also long been bullish on gold and related stocks, with much better results. (See: Go for Gold: Inflation Is Here and Going to Get "Much, Much Worse," Pento Says)

    "How do you protect yourself? In an environment of profoundly negative real interest rates that are falling, what do you have to do?," he asks rhetorically. "You have to own commodities and precious metals stocks. That's been the correct trade..." and will remain so unless and until the Fed does an abrupt about-face.

    Aaron Task is the host of The Daily Ticker. You can follow him on Twitter at @atask or email him at altask@yahoo.com

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    274 comments

    • wfecpa  •  6 months ago
      No kidding

      These goverment inflation figures as well as the unemployment rates are the phoniest things since pro werstling. They are both severely edited and undersounted.

      Anyone who would believe them or plan and actions based upon them is an imbecile.
      • Bear Mauler 6 months ago
        What? Wrestling is fake? You have some nerve! :-)
    • Bruce  •  6 months ago
      Inflation is high. I wish there was some independent watchdog group that monitors real inflation. I own a small manufacturing concern and every time I buy parts and inventory, I just cringe. Everything keeps going up. Wire, sheet metal, cardboard boxes, parts, you name it. All types of insurance, food, fuel, utilities, hair cuts, there is no relief. Now peanut butter is up 50%. To make matters worse, my money in the bank earns a whopping .5% and that is a premium top end rate. I have some accounts that earn .05%. It's getting scary. I mean food riot kind of scary.
      • MaryJane 6 months ago
        Bruce: I think there is something called government shadow inflation. It reflects the way inflation used to be calculated. The calculation method was changed some years back, leading to a much more inaccurate figure regarding inflation. The last I heard true inflation (government shadow inflation, that is) was almost 10% (9.6% to be more specific).
      • tony 6 months ago
        Are you calling Obama a liar?
      • PH 6 months ago
        You are living proof by owning and operating your own business. A sector in this economy which politicians keep ignoring.
    • alter  •  6 months ago
      Listening to the FED is like listening to a thief telling you he is helping you as he steals your wallet.
      • NotFondOfLibs 6 months ago
        Who's the idiot who voted thumbs down on this comment? Step up and explain yourself. Must have been Bernanke.
      • A Yahoo! User 6 months ago
        It is a little like the grinch telling little Suzy who (who was no more than 2) that he was stealing the christmas tree to fix the light bulb that was burned out.

        Unfortunately, the "burned out light bulb" is a fine metephor for the lack of original thinking on the part of Fed and government economists. The correct answer to a lack of aggregate demand is always to spend more governement (borrowed) money. It is always "all Keynesian all the time".
      • xtra 6 months ago
        but, tho its getting late in the game and long in the tooth, fighting the fed is not being invested in the stock market ..........your savings will be destroyed , otherwise...
    • bill k  •  6 months ago
      My cable bill doubled in three years, utility rates have gone up big time, tuition, medical, auto and house insurance have all gone way up too. don't ignore these bills too.
      • PH 6 months ago
        Government ignores the REAL WORLD we all live in. That is the big problem - that are so out of touch or want to be out of touch it is pathetic!
      • Matt B 6 months ago
        None of these items counts towards the "official inflation" figures released by gov't
      • Dan 6 months ago
        Hey idiot. Cancel your cable! WHy would anyone with a brain even watch TV???? Do you enjoy getting brainwashed while PAYINg to make TV networks money by watching ads??? Wow youre an idiot!!!!
    • ahdskjgfabcjkajhfklash  •  6 months ago
      Nobody thought we would inflate our way out of this mess? Really shocking!
      • Gary 6 months ago
        Inflation reduces the buying power of your savings when you're getting 0.01% on you checking account and inflation is reported at an unbelievable 3.9%

        It's like a 3.89% tax each year on whomever has assets.
      • Vlad2Vlad 6 months ago
        Yeah but inflation also grossly reduces the amount of your debts. In this case not just Americans but the trillions of dollars the US owes.
      • BTWilliams2429 6 months ago
        Your theory only works if all your debt is zero coupon (lump sum) and due a long time from now. The reality debt is coming due all the time. If you get aggressive with inflating away your debts, debt values collapse, and interest rates go up. This results in a debt trap like Greece is in.
    • Comet  •  6 months ago
      You cannot trust the Fed Gov or the Federal Reserve.
      Abolish the Federal Reserve Act!!
    • Scott  •  6 months ago
      The government KNOWS there is inflation.
      But, they have to deny it because of the COLAs
      for all the government workers and social security recipients.
    • A Yahoo! User  •  6 months ago
      Lets see my electric rates are up 34.2% the last 3 years,food aroung me is up at least 25% if not more , gas prices are at 3.50 a gallon up 50%, my water bill is up 50% ,, my meds doubled the first of this year. Yeah we ONLY have 3.9% inflation , every 4 months !
    • MikecFly  •  6 months ago
      Agora Financial are the best
    • Marv  •  6 months ago
      Bernanke needs to be deflated.
    • VincentT  •  6 months ago
      A loaf of bread that cost me a buck 79 about a year and a half ago is now 2.50 if that is not inflation I guess I do not understand the definition of inflation.
    • WilliamD  •  6 months ago
      Anyone who buys groceries or energy products, or uses medical services knows inflation is with us. They call these things "volatile", but they're also the necessities of life. Discretionary items, particularly electronics, may be coming down, as they usually do, but who buys a laptop or new TV every week?
      The Fed, however, promised they'd keep interest rates low for two years (now down to about a year) so they'd lose all credibility if they broke this promise and raised interest rates.
      Manipulating money has become ineffective in getting the economy moving. The country needs a stimulus that creates demand for goods and services, not more rewards for campaign supporters. That will create jobs and lower the misery index. We need leaders, not politicians, and leaders are in short supply.
    • Michael Carrick  •  6 months ago
      There is no inflation. If you take fuel, food, transportation, healthcare, education costs and taxes out of the equasion prices are actually going down!
    • NotFondOfLibs  •  6 months ago
      Inflation started to set in over a year ago. Anyone who goes to the supermarket at least once a week knows that. For anyone in or out of government to deny it, is either an idiot or just doesn't pay attention to the world around him/her. Thank the folks who brought you the "Stimulus".
    • Hardscrabble Hammer  •  6 months ago
      government inflation figures are a joke because they disregard "volatile" food and energy prices, as if volatility is any reason to exclude them. Most of what we pay for is directly affected by energy prices, or IS energy prices (gas, heating oil, electricity). Moreover, food is kinda important, and we know how expensive that has become! The truth is, they will never allow a spike in interest rates because it would make the national debt all but impossible to pay off.
    • ripsaw  •  6 months ago
      You havent felt anything yet. Give it time.
    • gary  •  6 months ago
      wow one comment and that comment still is not getting it. He is seliing you the truth or is that to much to handle. Wait tilll next year. Mybe you get the mesagehen you will pay more at the pump
    • tony  •  6 months ago
      Inflation is here in full force, only to get worse. The Feds don't see it because they are all millionares, democraps and repugnantcrats. Just the poor working man feels it.
    • Doug123  •  6 months ago
      Of course Bernanke is saying there's no inflation. If he told it like it is he would have to raise interest rates. Damned if he does, damned if he doesn't. All the while, congress keeps doing nothing about the real problem......WE'RE SPENDING MORE THAN WE'RE TAKING IN.
    • Ernest Cruzen  •  6 months ago
      Need any more reasons NOT TO REELECT OBAMA???

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