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    Home Prices Fall to 2003 Levels; When Will Housing Hit Bottom?

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    Today's pending home sales report provides a glimmer of hope for the beleaguered housing market. The National Association of Realtors said pending home sales in October rose 10.4%, handily beating estimates of a 2% gain. Pending home sales are up more than 9% from a year ago.

    One explanation for the increase could be the slide in home prices. According to Standard & Poor's Case-Shiller home-price index, September prices fell 0.6% from August and are down 3.9% compared to a year ago. The index, a widely followed gauge of the housing market, measures prices in 20 major U.S. metropolitan cities. Home prices in August were revised down to 0.3% from an initial reading of zero.

    There's no question this is a buyer's market. Sellers are forced to take steep discounts on their homes and interest rates for 30-year fixed mortgages are at historic lows. On Monday The Daily Ticker discussed how renting has become extremely expensive compared to buying a home in a growing number of U.S. cities. In fact, it's never been a better time to buy a home in the past 15 years as it is now, according to a Wall Street Journal survey,

    CoreLogic, a data analysis company, released its newest figures on the housing market: 22.1% or 10.7 million homes with mortgages were underwater in the third quarter — that is, the amount owed on the home is greater than the property's value. Last quarter was a slight improvement from the second quarter's reading of 10.9 million homes underwater, but it still raises the possibility of more foreclosures to come next year.

    Fusion IQ's Barry Ritholtz sat down with Aaron to discuss the depressed housing market and the most recent S&P Case-Shiller numbers, which he said should come as no surprise.

    Housing is "maybe in its fifth inning," he said, using baseball terms to track the progress of the housing market. A recovery can't be expected until there's been a "cleansing" — i.e. a clearing out of misallocated capital.

    The bleak employment picture has also stymied a housing market rebound. Americans need to sell their homes — in most cases below the purchase price — before relocating for a new job. For those who can afford to purchase property, banks have become highly selective when approving mortgage loans.

    Fed to the Rescue?

    A Bloomberg news survey found that 16 of the 21 biggest bond dealers believe the Fed will buy $545 billion of mortgage securities — essentially another round of stimulus or "QE3."

    The Fed already has $900 billion of home-loan debt on its books, but a focus on buying mortgage securities instead of Treasuries is a marked departure for Bernanke & Co.

    Will another bout of stimulus bolster the distressed housing market? Share your thoughts below.

    Editors Note: Yahoo! Finance to host a live twitter chat after the close of the market to discuss today's #mktmeltup with the host of The Daily Ticker @aarontask and our other colleagues @mattnesto @jeffmacke @grossdm. Join the discussion!

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    289 comments

    • BRUCE  •  5 months ago
      The Fed's are helping out the banks by giving them the original value back on the notes. So in effect they lose nothing. In fact they actually make money!!!!! The Feds step in and buy up $900 billion worth of note that the banks were holding. Thanks Bernarke!!! It is the very reason why they refuse to refi. They would lose money that way. The guy who purchased the property get it in the rear. His credit goes in to the toilet, most likely has to file a BK. and will be out of the market for years. The fat bankers hold on to their new money and then put the screws to the American people. They are the same banks who lent money to the Europen countries and are now back at the table asking the Feds to bail them out of this mess too!!!
      • Roland S 5 months ago
        Have no fear the banks are too big to fail, so Obama will give them more billions, just in time for Christmas bonuses, all is well in Obamaland.
      • Renesta 5 months ago
        You both fail to mention how the banks have already paid back the money that Nobama forced them to take. Do your research...
    • Robert Dana  •  5 months ago
      Wait...I'm confused. I thought they said the housing market would hit bottom in late 2009. And then in the summer of 2010, and then it would recover in 2011. This hasn't happened? Are you telling me that the govt and their media lap dogs have been feeding us b*******t?

      But I have a question? Why do housing values have to increase? My car doesn't increase in value as I use it and it starts to need work. Neither does any other hard asset. Maybe we need to rethink that a house is a place to live and not an investment that gives you a return. There are more houses available than people that want them. So I'll take a stab at the question....decades.
      • Just the Facts 5 months ago
        The logic you use in the second paragraph of your post is enough to make the governments head explode! Way too logical for them to EVER comprehend!
      • Angry Mick 5 months ago
        IMO, and I say this somewhat tongue-in-cheek, in reference to your increased value question. Its hard to say where you can point the finger for a starting point, but I believe it can be traced back to shows on HGTV and the gullibility of the American people. It use to be you bought a house, you made your payments, and your fixed things as they wore down and/or broke. Then people started buying homes and renovating them in an attempt to make their homes more marketable and enticing to buyers. Your neighbor just put in granite countertops, so I must do the same thing. Your neighbor just added a 4th bathroom, so I must do the same thing. Etc, etc. People use to buy a house and lived in it‘as is’ (to some degree). Now as people tour a house they may potentially buy, they say comments like ‘if we rip this wall out’, or ‘if we gut this bathroom’, etc. etc. People now look at the $300k house they purchased and add in the cost of all the improvements they made, and try to sell it at the higher price. IMO, to many people believe the cost of the “value” they have added should be recouped when they sell. The truth is, all this “value” people have added simply (and hopefully) makes your home more enticing to potential buyers who in the end will make an offer based on comp sales…not based on what the owner paid for it + home improvements.

        I love your car analogy – and it is spot on! The new tires and muffler I had to put on my car did nothing for its value – its still depreciating…LOL.
      • Nate 5 months ago
        People do not require that their homes go up in value, but I assure you that they are unwilling to pay hundreds of thousands of dollars for a depreciating asset. They will rent instead. This is the current situation. The government does not predict housing recoveries; realtors, MBS salesmen, and private sector economists do.

        For those of you who keep comparing houses to cars... stop. They are not comparable. You can compare a refrigerator to a car, or some other household appliance or machine to a car, but a house is not a car. (sorry if you live in a car).
    • sumotuwethufsa  •  5 months ago
      Banks should be stopped from fooling people into believing their house is a bank. They're homes, not savings accounts.
    • albert  •  5 months ago
      House prices will hit bottom when the number of available houses matches the number of people who can afford to live in them.
      • BRONCO 5 months ago
        Albert, affordability is not the main issue keeping people from buying and banks from lending. The main issue is that home prices are still too high and buyers and lenders are afraid that home prices will continue down resulting in lost equity or even going under water. The median price of a home in the United States is about $170,000. People would rather buy a home for $120,000 at 6% or 7% interest than the same home for $170,000 at 4% interest.
      • Ty 5 months ago
        Albert, and then what? why should some one try to hold unto a property that will not regain it's value for 20 years when they can walk away for a 7 year bankruptcy?
      • Jason 5 months ago
        Hey Ty have you ever bought a car, guess what that baby lost value after you bought it. There is no guarentee a home will hold its value. If you make equity in a house that is a bonus.
    • Unaffiliated  •  5 months ago
      Housing will bottom when employment goes up ....
      • Roland S 5 months ago
        which won;t happen until we can get rid of the democrat in the white house now.
    • xx  •  5 months ago
      it won't until people can afford, job at livable levels
    • MattG  •  5 months ago
      If the government did not intervene, it would have bottomed a long time ago. Gimmicks, low interest rates, 3% down, kicking the can down the road, only makes the decline so much more painful and also sucks in many buyers who are buying depreciating properties. If government did not intervene, prices would have bottomed to 1995 levels and start going back up again now.
      • Roland S 5 months ago
        Exactly but its in the nature of liberals, to interfer, and write regulations that will perpetuate their stupidity.
    • MS  •  5 months ago
      No job, no new house and even when jobs do pick-up it will be a while before it translates into rising home prices. People can't relocate to a new job even if it is a $10-20k bump in salary when they will lose $40-50k selling their current home.
    • Ray Nak  •  5 months ago
      Housing will be dead for another 10-15 years. There is a huge inventory, huge number of foreclosed homes, huge number of under water loans, 10% - 17% unemployment, prices are 200% higher than the real values, banks do not give loans, and the US population is not growing fast enough. Get it? There is not going to be a miracle.
    • Real World 2012  •  5 months ago
      Income is not at 2003 levels, so people cannot afford what they could in 2003. Housing will continue to fall in most areas for years to come, as the supply and shadow supply are both huge, and income is going down, or being claimed by other items such as food, gasoline and gadgets that did not exist in 2003.
    • Just the Facts  •  5 months ago
      I'm getting sick of people complaining about having to put 20% down on a home. It's called "having skin in the game", my friend. Part of the reason we are in this mess is due to the 100% financing, 5/1 ARM, interest-only NINJA loans that were a result of regulation put in place by the government who wanted EVERYONE to be a "homeowner". People don't have a problem walking away from their mortgages when the house is 98% owned by the bank anyway. It should be a LAW that requires at LEAST 20% be put down in order to close a mortgage.

      If you don't have enough cash saved to put a 20% downpayment, I got news for you. You are purchasing above your means, and are a big part of the reason we are in this mess in the first place.
    • Dave K  •  5 months ago
      Bernanke is now printing trillions to bail out europe so when the dollar becomes worthless houses will still have some value, problem solved.
    • Ty  •  5 months ago
      3,000 home are auctioned in bank lobbies everyday for pennies on the dollar so it's not hard to see just how much worse the market will become! People are in absolute DENIAL about the value they have in real estate!
    • Cobra  •  5 months ago
      Our government wants to micro-manage everything. If they just let things take a natural course, it'll work itself out. It's when the Feds step in to save their cronies from their own greed, that the American people suffer. If it were left to supply and demand, it would stabilize on it's own. But, not with the Fed buying up every toxic loan that their buddies have. Sometimes, it's just best to let things evolve naturally. Yea, some people are going to take a hit, but others will prosper. That's just the way of things. You can only sandbag for so long and then the hurricane is going to do what it naturally does, regardless.
    • ZIEH LEINE!  •  5 months ago
      2012 will see many more people falling behind in their mortgages. Despite all the jingle bell forecasts for holiday sales, the hard facts are that the economy is still in shambles. We still have 2 undeclared wars to pay for remember. Stay tuned for the next round of foreclosures coming to a neighbourhood near you.
    • Saber Iceage  •  5 months ago
      I started buying investment houses about 30 years, but no longer buy investment properties. Back then, they were $50,000 plus (for a tiny house) and went up to over 100k in about 10 years. My son is right now buying a house for under $40,000. That is less than I payed 30 years ago for a house in my area. I don't see any bottom in sight.
    • Cynthia  •  5 months ago
      In my hometown of Claremont, NH, our homes are over assessed at 2006 levels, high property tax rates, and the citizens are unable to sell their homes because of the market. These elected officials need to wake up and see how bad it is out there.
    • Is What It Is  •  5 months ago
      Hang on folks, 2012 is about to happen. In cash, waiting for mass deflation. This is really, really going to hurt.
    • Tango  •  5 months ago
      The Fed needs to stay out of the housing market, government stupidity is what got the housing market in the mess it is in. Thanks to Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, someone earning $14,000 could get into a $750,000 home with nothing down and nothing to pay for 2 years, this crap was bundled with 100 others into bonds, and rated AAA then sold to banks & pension funds. Ergo! one hell of a market crash. Let the housing market take due course and it will eventually be back to normal.
    • Oops! Try again.  •  5 months ago
      We need capitulation.

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