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    What If? “Huge Interest Rate Risk” If No Deal on Debt Ceiling, David Walker Says

    U.S. stocks fell Monday morning as the dollar rallied sharply vs. the euro amid renewed concern the sovereign debt crisis will spread to Italy. Treasury prices rallied in concert with the dollar as U.S. bonds are still seen as a safe haven in times of financial stress.

    But that status could be in jeopardy after negotiations to raise the debt ceiling as part of a "grand bargain" to cut the long-term deficit broke down this weekend.

    Like most observers, David Walker, founder of the Comeback America Initiative, believes a deal to raise the debt ceiling — at least temporarily — will be made before the Aug. 2 deadline set by Tim Geithner. But with about three weeks to go and a lot of political obstacles to overcome, it's time to ask what happens if no deal is reached before Aug. 2.

    First and foremost, Walker says the U.S. will continue to make interest payments on Treasuries as mandated by Sec. 4 of the 14th Amendment to the Constitution.

    The real question, he says, is "who's going to get laid off and who is not going to get paid on time?"

    While many conservatives cheer the idea of federal workers being laid off, Walker notes such workers are historically rehired after a crisis, with retroactive pay. Taxpayers will pay for that, he notes; similarly, taxpayers would have to pay interest and penalties on any missed payments to federal contractors, thanks to the Prompt Payment Act. And if 55 million Social Security recipients don't get their checks on time — a possibility in September if no deal is reached — there will be major political repercussions, Walker says.

    Meanwhile, "nobody knows" how the financial markets will react to Uncle Sam missing payments "and we would be stupid to figure that out," Walker says. "We're the largest economy on earth, temporarily the sole super power with over 60% of global reserve currency and we're trying to figure out what bills we're going to pay and not pay?"

    Although Treasury yields remain low by historic standards, "we have huge interest rate risk" if there's no deal by Aug. 2, says Walker, a former U.S. Comptroller General and longtime deficit hawk. "There's all kind of warning lights going off — these people need to get to work and get a deal done."

    Walker doesn't believe the Treasury market will collapse if there's no deal on the debt ceiling, but "I do think we'll pay an interest rate price."

    How big a price is unknowable but Walker notes every 100 basis point (or 1%) rise in interest rates costs the U.S. $150 billion in additional interest costs, which would only exacerbate America's long-term deficit woes.

    Aaron Task is the host of The Daily Ticker. You can follow him on Twitter at @atask or email him at altask@yahoo.com

    For more Daily Ticker coverage of the debt ceiling debate see:
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    60 comments

    • Dickie Cee  •  10 months ago
      After years of neglect on reining in the bubble stock market, economy collapsed and a Democrat got the Prez office. When the Democrat was in office, the Republican opposition tried to block every reform and every spending program to get the country out of the financial crisis. At least FDR had 1 term in to get the recovery going. But when the recovery stalled, the Republicans went gangbusters in '36 and forced Roosevelt to scale back and then the economy went into the toilet again.

      History repeating itself.

      I will grant the Fed deficit in '32 isn't $14 trillion (good $6 trillion is due to the Cheney Adminstration), there was no war, and there is no dust bowl now.

      And Steve Forbes idea of going back to the gold standard? I wonder how many of his buddy's have hoarded gold?

      If the Republicans destroy the US economy just so Obama doesn't get a 2nd term... Great strategy for the party! Damned the country!
      • KENT 10 months ago
        What does Cheney have to do with the national debt? The only official duty of the VP is to preside over the Senate and break a tie vote. The only thing the gold standard did was to limit the amount of gold-backed currency that could be printed to the amount of gold held in Fort Knox. Even in those days, there were non-gold backed Federal Reserve notes. Our currency system is a managed one. They only print enough to meet daily demand and to replace worn-out bills. Our money is backed by all the goods and services produced. Using gold is meaningless.
      • Dickie Cee 10 months ago
        Dickie C ran the country for 8 years! Dubya can't even eat a pretzel without choking.
    • THE MOVE  •  10 months ago
      DONT UNDERESTIMATE THE IGNORANCE OF "DUMBASSES" IN LARGE GROUPS.
    • John  •  10 months ago
      What the ??? Federal workers might get laid off, but then later rehired WITH RETROACTIVE PAY? What scenario would allow any private sector employee to get laid off then rehired WITH RETROACTIVE PAY?
      • A. 10 months ago
        Absolute insanity. The works of this government need a very large wrench thrown into them.
      • 5th Horseman 10 months ago
        One thing to keep in mind - people talk about the middle class when the US census shows that the median income is about $38,000. I find it funny that people who make at least double that are now considered the "middle" class. Add the benefits and many make more than quadruple the median income. Are they still in the middle class? Or are these govenrment workers a new form of aristocracy where even the laws of economics don't apply to them?
      • frankmargel.com 10 months ago
        Fair... No it just isn't fair! Thanks for the post! Thumbs up!
    • dennis  •  10 months ago
      Threatening SSI recepients is not right.
      Bet the Congress and Senate will still get paid on time.
      These guys are useless.
      • frankmargel.com 10 months ago
        Good one!
      • STEVE 10 months ago
        Not to the wealthy, CEOs and bankers--they're worth billions to them!
    • Cpt Insano  •  10 months ago
      Almost time to pay the piper!
    • Richard  •  10 months ago
      WE ARE FIGHTING 4 UNDECLARED WARS

      Iraq
      Afghanistan
      Pakistan
      Libya

      But not one politician or pundit suggests cutting the TRILLIONS OF DOLARS of this war machinery

      Is this a military dictatorship? or a democracy?
      • TechDave 10 months ago
        Saw a show on Discovery last night about seal team 6. They said they can't tell us what they do, but they stay busy. That says we have way more than 4 military actions. The constitution includes fundamentals of provide for the common defense. I'm okay with the actions underway, even those we probably are unaware of. Constitution also says "promote" the general welfare. Some folks think that means spend trillions giving taxpayer money to deadbeats, some don't. the military budgets are way less than the deficit. Surrender to the world's bad guys and disband the military and you still have a deficit. Fix the deficit. No more welfare to deadbeats.
    • 5th Horseman  •  10 months ago
      This is nothing but Fear Porn. Same old same old. Raise debt ceiling GOOD, cut government spending BAD. Neandrethals.
    • Somerset Sam  •  10 months ago
      USA..today..!!!
      1. A US President with poor leadership
      2. A US Congress with no direction
      3. Elected Reps with no performance
      4. A Treasuty with no revenue and "printing" $$$ in billions
      5. Banks that do not lend to businesses but await a "bail-out"
      6. Corporate that are "out-sourcing" jobs abroad
      7. States that are fiscally broke, cutting off services
      8. Citizens growing in number for food stamps, unemployment and welfare
      9. Vacant homes (foreclosures), rising cost of rents, fees and consumer items
      A debate in DC to raise "debt ceiling, cut costs, raise taxes and dress up a DEAD Economy..
    • stevie  •  10 months ago
      i could use a higher rate on my savings account and maybe one day retire.
    • David  •  10 months ago
      shut the government down. What worries me most is that they will reach an agreement.
    • TimeTraveller  •  10 months ago
      How would this effect the ongoing interest rates?

      and why would it be drastic?
    • Stan  •  10 months ago
      I do not understand why both parties keep attacking the private sectors social security,medicare and Taxing us more.
      With over 50% of the working class getting thier paychecks from taxpayers=(TAXPAYER JOBS)
      Average Gov salary 100K a yr and free healthcare,paid sick leave,paid vacations,paid holidays ect.
      Ohh- notice the word average! I know some of you gov workers make only 60k a yr but the ones that make 250K equal out the Average.I keep hearing that gov workers have MA and Ba degrees so they should be paid more hmm What did they learn! How to steal money legally? or bankrupt our country?maybe they think just because they went to school they are better then others. Ohh and by the way when Gov workers retire they get 80% of thier annual pay in the form of a pension! that is before spiking.Ohh and if health insurance goes up 30% guess who has to pay that umm us taxpayers.
      Anyone with a 4 th grade education in math can see the totally unsustainable Government entitlements that are bankrupting this country.
    • daithan  •  10 months ago
      Great!. Hope interest rates go up to 20% so I can put my money in bank CDs paying 15%!!! Then, there goes the stock market...Ha!
    • Bubble Buster  •  10 months ago
      Fear Tactics, No Need to raise the debe ceiling ever, if we can not afford it, then don't spend it.
    • William M  •  10 months ago
      Simple. Instead of raising the debt ceiling, CUT government spending across the board. Government is way too big.
    • DarrelB  •  10 months ago
      So now David Walker, "Mr. We Have to Cut Spending", wants to raise the debt ceiling so we can borrow more? Which is it, David?
    • Mark  •  10 months ago
      The United States accounts for 47 percent of the world���s total military spending,

      Total Outlays (Federal Funds): $2,650 billion
      MILITARY: 54% and $1,449 billion
      NON-MILITARY: 46% and $1,210 billion

      AND WE ARE BROKE I
    • jms  •  10 months ago
      zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz. More propaganda from Government News supporting the lefty agenda, 24/7
    • super-gadfly  •  10 months ago
      If this falls through Obama will be remembered as one of the worst 1 term presidents of modern times because his democratic colleges held out for tax increases during an era of severe financial crisis.
    • D T  •  10 months ago
      Funny how all the doom & gloom predicted to happen if the debt ceiling isn't raised didn't exist when Senator Obama voted 'No' on President Bush's request to raise it..... Playing politics with American debt? You be the judge.

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