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    John Mauldin: The U.S. Must Cut $10 Trillion in 10 Years, or Taxes Will Skyrocket

    This week's debt ceiling deal seems not to have satisfied anyone on either side of the political spectrum. For the Tea Party and fiscal conservatives, the deal to cut $2.4 trillion in spending over the next 10 years does not go far enough. For liberals, the deal calls for too many spending cuts, especially to Medicare, without raising revenues, that is to say taxes.

    John Mauldin, president of Millennium Wave Advisors and author of Endgame: The End of the Debt Supercycle and How It Changes Everything, says we need a combination for both. He's calling for greater debt reduction through spending cuts and tax hikes, not an easy position for the Republicans to take. "We've got to cut spending, and I'm afraid we're going to end up having to find ways to raise revenues," he tells Henry Blodget. "You can call it tax increases, you can call it reducing the tax expenditures."

    For the U.S. to make any progress on the deficit, Mauldin says Congress must cut $10 trillion over the next decade. Make no mistake, cutting that much will cause pain, but the alternative to continue to kick the can down the road will only create more pain. "We don't want to become Greece," he warns. If we fail to address the problems now, we'll have to "raise taxes to levels nobody can comprehend," he argues.

    What about those who say we should just default?

    That's not an option," he says. "We're the world's reserve currency. We can't do that. It would cause global crisis, global recession, trade wars and an economic catastrophe on par with the 1930s."

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    519 comments

    • scotty  •  9 months ago
      The Roman Empire wasn't built in a day and didn't fall in a day. Cicero saw the fall of the Roman Empire, but could not save Rome. Many people see the demise of the American Empire coming, but can anyone save the U.S.?
      • Dagmar 9 months ago
        Just let America be and she'll heal herself. Enough with the redistribution, envy, and change already. It's dumb. And naturally, it's not working.
      • Head Above Water 9 months ago
        It sure as hell isn't Obarma!
      • Malcolm 9 months ago
        Many Americans think that the American Empire died on the day that the last space shuttle landed. I am one of them. Landing on the moon took vision and determination. Ending space flight proves we have lost both. Loosing three wars in places we do not belong confirms that as a fact of life not just my opinion. Cutting spending blindly only makes thing worse. Just ask the FAA employees what happens when small minds fight with each other. Things just get worse!
    • anon  •  9 months ago
      The longer they wait to start dealing with this fiscal mess the more painful it will be for everyone
      • claudeb 9 months ago
        The problem is with the "THEY" part of that statement!
      • SalukiDawg 9 months ago
        I think that is their plan. When radicals like Obama talk about equality they do not mean to bring everyone up to a certain level. We all know that is impossible. Radicals really want everyone to suffer the same at the bottom. Except of course the elites who will live in the mansions and govern what we poor folks get. That is the master plan. Radicals liberals cannot stand that someone can come from nothing and make a nice living.
      • SL 9 months ago
        Cuts in Medicare and Defense HAVE to be done anyway, the later the deeper!!!
    • VicC  •  9 months ago
      immediately end all wars, flat tax EVERYONE, make lobbying illegal, and fire congress if they cannot make a balanced budget for fy 2012.

      do you realize that the main job of congress is to pass a budget and it has been 3 years since they have done that. total incompetance. if they cannot pass a balanced budget by fy 2012, fire em all and let the folks they beat in the election have a crack at it.
      • toughcritic 9 months ago
        correction
        the democratic senate lead by HARRY REID of NEVADA has failed to submit a
        budget for over 2 years ( that sob needs to be censured and jailed AND that would
        send a nice message to the rest of our politicians )
        john boehner and the repubs in the house have passed a budget
        just the facts please !
      • John Galt 9 months ago
        Harry would be history if my party didn't run a whackjob extremist against him. I'm the disgusted person everyone is talking about.
      • DLH 9 months ago
        Lobbying is free speech. Try electing politicians of good character and jailing the corrupt politicians when they break their own rules (laws).
    • TrueNorth  •  9 months ago
      SOLUTION: 51% of Americans and some large corporations pay no federal income tax - change that!
      • Andrew 9 months ago
        57% of corporations pay no taxes.
      • Joan Martin 9 months ago
        We should vote for flat tax next year. People make 20k/year, pay 10% is 2k; people make 200k/year, pay 10% is 20k, and they still pay 10 times more than those who make 20k. Paying income tax is every citizen's duty, not just on those who make 200k.
      • SalukiDawg 9 months ago
        A Flat/Fair tax is the way to go but you will never see that unless there is a revolution in this country. The middle working class is squeezed from both ends on this debate. The poor only want services and do not want to pay anything. The rich want to loopholes. *rich - When I refer to the "rich" I mean the independantly wealthy not the Working Class busting their arse to make $200K a year.
    • DH  •  9 months ago
      You have to start with legislators who can add and subtract! Establish term limits. Stop spending on non-governing items (the government should not be responsible for me, I should be responsible for me). Simplify the tax code so it's simple and can't be manipulated. Count all spending as part of the budget and require a balanced one with one exception, an official declaration of war. When is the last time we actually had one of those? Japan?
      • Vitaly 9 months ago
        Sure, government should not be responsible for you. You build your own road, your own police force, firefighter brigade etc. What kind of idiots are still cropped in the USA?
      • Ron O 9 months ago
        DH, your ideas are not bad, but a "right-to-life party would be very hypocritical to let people die because we want to buy a new Mercedes instead of paying taxes.
      • SalukiDawg 9 months ago
        I think he means the FEDERAL government. The federal government has two roles. Protect us from foreign enemies and make sure the playing field is fair. After that they need to get out of the way and let the States and local governments do their jobs.
    • Despido  •  9 months ago
      10 Trillion in 10 years? Americans whined and cried and became hysterical at 1/5th of that.

      I was in Brasil when the economy crashed in '89-'90. It was ugly, I can promise you, the spoiled, panty-waste Americans won't be able to handle it.
    • Pipe Guy  •  9 months ago
      I am mixed on Mauldin, but I can tell you that I believe that he is right on this one. We need a combination of spending reduction and revenue increases so we can get our selves back on track. In the meantime we can figure out how to revise the tax code for after the debt is normalised.
    • Rascal Dog  •  9 months ago
      Amusing.
      Only cuts can balance the budget...
      Let us see how that will work out. Need to cut 40% of the budget. 20% in each of the following:
      1) Social Security
      2) Medicare and Medicaid
      3) Defense.
      4) VA, interest on debt, unemployment, a bit more.
      5) Everything else,

      (1) Cutting of retired people's checks is political suicide. Old people vote. And even if you could, cutting Social Security would lead to cutting FICA, blowing another 20% hole in the budget.

      (2) We could cut this in half with a Canadian style Medicare (or Swiss or German or French or Japanese or ... style healthcare system), but that would make sense. We can't do that. We are Americans, we need to spend twice as much on health care as the rest of the world and get less from the spending than the rest of the world.

      (3) Defense? Sure, we would probably be just about as safe with one fewer Army division, one fewer aircraft carrier and one fewer air squadron. But again, we can not cut it all, or even most of this.

      (4) ? Oh, may be the recession will end, and unemployment will be reduced someday. Probably not to 1%, like Borrow and Spend Republican Ryan's budget assumed. But again, can't cut it all, or even most of it.

      So far, most of the focus on cutting has been on (5). But first, we need airports. Shutting down the FAA to kill unions is... interesting. Some of the expense here is recession related, and will end when the economy improves... if it ever does. While we likely will, and probably should, cut some out of (5), we can not cut it all, or even most of it.

      So at best, counting as total fractions of spending, we might manage 0% out of (1), 10% out of (2), 5% out of (3), 5% of of (4) and 1% out of (5).

      I really don't see how to cut 40% with a drastic change for the worse for the vast majority of people. If you disagree, rather than voting me down, why don't you show how you would cut the budget? Oh, and if it starts with cutting all of Social Security, are you going to also cut FICA?
    • Nico Rod  •  9 months ago
      Seems simple, just have everyone in the country pay their fair share. Stop borrowing and stop being the world's policeman. Let someone else play that role for a while. No one seems to appreciates what we do for others.
    • Big Dog  •  9 months ago
      Washington #$%$ the money away and now they want all of us to pay. #$%$ them #$%$
    • BOM  •  9 months ago
      Stupid politicians campaign with 'Are you better off than you were 4 years ago'. If we do the right thing and drastically cut the way we need to--nobody is going to be better off. Many Americans are too shallow to swallow this medicine. The Tea Party gets it. Austerity now or bankruptcy later. Screw tax increases. I'm already taxed to death. Screw Obama and his low life big spending democrats. Balance the budget!!!!!! Screw Obama's 'balanced approach'.
    • Nickalicious  •  9 months ago
      Why would congress cut taxes? Cutting taxes doesn't get you votes. Increasing spending does. Take from each according to his means, and give to each just enough of that to buy you a vote and keep the rest for yourself and your cronies. That is America's crony capitalist mantra.
    • A Yahoo! User  •  9 months ago
      lawmakers keep kicking the can and playing dumb
    • A Taxpayer  •  9 months ago
      End the mortgage interest deduction. Why should ordinary people have to subsidize extravagant homes for the rich? Limit the number of deductions for dependents. Ordinary people should not have to subsidize people who insist on having more children than they can support.
    • David D  •  9 months ago
      Near the end of 2010, Congress passed legislation to reduce the employee portion of the Social Security tax to 4.2% in 2011, down from the normal 6.2%. This lasts only for one year. But, why in the world did Congress reduce the amount of the tax for a program that's already in jeopardy? This just doesn't make sense. Too many of our elected officials act as if they're afraid to say the t-word; they act as though they can't ever mention a tax increase out of fear they would not get re-elected. Perhaps we need a culture change here.

      I hope I'm right in saying the majority of American voters are smart enough to accept the reality that we really need some upward adjustment on the revenue side of the federal budget. I believe that view of American voters is correct and we need our politicians to give us some honest assessment of what's needed and if that includes some individuals and/or corporations paying more tax, then so be it. This seems especially true for Republicans. I wrote to my Congressman and expressed my view that the Republican attitude, during the recent political drama, that any tax increases would not be accepted by them was not right. I got a thoughtful reply from him that was somewhat satisfying. Folks, don't hesitate to contact your elected representatives. Finding contact info on their website is usually fairly easy and, as far as I know, they all now provide a way to contact them by email initiated on their website.
    • Drg  •  9 months ago
      In the 60's, those under LBJ and the Dem led congress were able steal all the Social Security funds from the SS "savings account" so that there were no, or small, deficits. In addition, they changed the law so that the SS funds went into the general budget and that could be spent to buy votes by promising gifts from the government. Well, now we have millions of baby boomers aging and leaving the work force. Now those missing SS funds must actually be spent, and it is missing.

      ALL POLITICIANS are to blame for this mess. It's not a Rep problem. It's not a Dem problem. It's now our problem and we have to quit spending so much.

      The budget has a 6% or 8% automatic spending increases built in. Over 10 years, at 6%, the spending would rise from $3.25 Trillion to $5.8 Trillion, and at 8%, the spending would rise from 3.25 Trillion to $7.0 Trillion. This assumes the economy and/or inflation also increases by 6% to 8%. The economy is not increasing at that rate. THIS WILL CAUSE EVEN BIGGER SHORTFALLS each year than even what the deficit is this year.

      In 10 years, we can expect the deficit to be $25 Trillion to $35 Trillion. The interest alone will be between $1 Trillion to maybe $2.5 Trillion. The weight of the interest on the debt is crippling.

      All of us are going to have to give up some part or all of our social programs.

      FDR tried valiantly to stave off the impact of depression by having government job stimulus spending. After a dozen years, unemployment was still crippling at around 20%. Our current president and congress have been trying valiantly to stave off the impact of an upcoming depression by government job stimulus spending. Even after a dozen years, it did not work. It is not working now, it is not going to work, it will never work.

      We can continue in our socialist ways try to save people's sorry butts. This will mean that taxes will have to increase, FOR ALL PEOPLE, by at least 40%. Or it means that we continue to deficit spend and increase the debt. Both of the of these will bring total collapse of the US monetary system.

      Or we can cut spending. All good socialist know that the answer to spending cuts is to riot, destroy, pillage and plunder.

      We have to face some painful facts. The government is not our provider, our healer, our savior, our comforter, etc. The government cannot become our god. The government cannot solve stupid. The government cannot solve poor. The government cannot solve sick. The government cannot solve natural disasters. The government cannot solve the weather.

      GET OVER IT.

      Nice mess you've gotten us into, Ollie.
    • det198sw  •  9 months ago
      There has been NO economic recovery in this country. The government created a false recovery with the influx of government money. With money cut off we will now go back it to a recession. You can't have a real recovery without creating jobs and our leaders in both parties are more interested in their party lines than the American people.
    • Cup of tea  •  9 months ago
      If the country is controlled by the group of irresponsible people who contribute less than they took from the country, that country is doomed.

      Democrats together with wall street SOBs kidnapped this country via buying votes from the irresponsible majority who want free ride for everything.
    • jo66  •  9 months ago
      My wife and I work hard to earn mid 100K's. In NY between federal, state, and local tax our burden comes to more than 50k/year. Any higher and one of us will stop working, drop to a lower tax rate and have a similiar net. I am sure others in our bracket will do the same and we are not even the 250k+ crowd.
    • Lords of Illusion  •  9 months ago
      America is Debtors Prison for its citzens.

      I blame 545 people hiding out in DC and the CABALA in NY.

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