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    Greek Bond Talks Break Down, But Markets Shrug It Off

    The breakdown of talks between Greece and its bondholders appears to be a nightmare scenario. Standard & Poor's has threatened to declare Greece in technical default, the first for an EU member state since the introduction of the euro in 1999. Meanwhile, the IMF is warned "the euro crisis entered a perilous new phase" and lowered its global growth forecast for 2012.

    Despite heightened risk of a 'disorderly' resolution to the Greek debt crisis, the financial markets gave a collective shrug on Tuesday. The Dow was recently down 0.3%, following similarly modest declines in Europe while the euro recovered from its early weakness to push beyond $1.30.

    "As all things in the market...bad news is better than no news [and] we need to get through this," says Axel Merk, president and CIO of Merk Investments. "What policymakers have been working on is to stomach the default of a sovereign and Greece is pretty hopeless, no matter whether you call it a technical default or voluntary."

    From Panic to Europhia

    As inevitable as a Greek default may be, Merk concedes the news from Europe is likely to swing between "panics and euphoria" in the coming year. "The issue is, if things spread, you want to have that safety buffer... that 'ring of fire' around them, that's what the European Central Bank has been working on."

    The good news, Merk says, is that because the bond market is holding European sovereigns to account, policymakers will stay engaged to prevent the worst-case scenario. As with other observers, he believes the ECB's pledge last year to provide unlimited loans to EU banks does provide the necessary "ring fence" around Greece, or other troubled sovereigns. (See: Jim O'Neill: Risk of European Contagion Now "Significantly Reduced")

    "They'll be huge rallies and panics but ultimately at the end of the day Europe is going to be around [and] the eurozone is not going to fall apart," Merk says.

    In fact, the fund manager believes the EU may be doing "too much," which is why he's currently more bullish on commodity currencies such as the Aussie dollar instead of the euro. Yet Merk remains most bearish on the dollar, thanks largely to the Fed's excessively easy policies, as we'll discuss in part two of this interview.

    Aaron Task is the host of The Daily Ticker. You can follow him on Twitter at @aarontask or email him at altask@yahoo.com.

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    45 comments

    • vinzgod  •  3 months ago
      what happens when you disregard ongoing problem?

      it comes back to haunt you with vengeance

      be careful...
    • BlueF  •  Manassas, Virginia  •  3 months ago
      Central banks are just going to keep creating money. Debt, bankruptcy.. doesn't matter anymore.
    • JoeW  •  Los Angeles, California  •  3 months ago
      Did you say whether the Fed is a government or private entity?
      • luckyshot 3 months ago
        the fed is private banking cartel that was established by bankers during a congresional christmas break back when a majority full was not required to enact laws. they gathered up a few congresspeople around washington, had a vote and passed the law to empower the federal reserve which again is nothing but a PRIVATELY OWNED banking cartel. read "the creature from jekyl island" you will be pisssssssed!
      • Anonymous 2012 3 months ago
        From Wikipedia----The Federal Reserve System (also known as the Federal Reserve, and informally as the Fed) is the central banking system of the United States. It was created on December 23, 1913 with the enactment of the Federal Reserve Act, largely in response to a series of financial panics, particularly a severe panic in 1907.[2][3][4] Over time, the roles and responsibilities of the Federal Reserve System have expanded and its structure has evolved.[3][5] Events such as the Great Depression were major factors leading to changes in the system.[6]

        The Congress established three key objectives for monetary policy--maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates--in the Federal Reserve Act. The first two objectives are sometimes referred to as the Federal Reserve's dual mandate.[7] Its duties have expanded over the years and today, according to official Federal Reserve documentation, include conducting the nation's monetary policy, supervising and regulating banking institutions, maintaining the stability of the financial system and providing financial services to depository institutions, the U.S. government, and foreign official institutions.[8]The Fed also conducts research into the economy and releases numerous publications, such as the Beige Book.

        The Federal Reserve System's structure is composed of the presidentially appointed Board of Governors (or Federal Reserve Board), the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), twelve regional Federal Reserve Banks located in major cities throughout the nation, numerous privately owned U.S. member banks and various advisory councils.[9][10][11] The FOMC is the committee responsible for setting monetary policy and consists of all seven members of the Board of Governors and the twelve regional bank presidents, though only five bank presidents vote at any given time. The Federal Reserve System has both private and public components, and was designed to serve the interests of both the general public and private bankers. The result is a structure that is considered unique among central banks. It is also unusual in that an entity outside of the central bank, namely the United States Department of the Treasury, creates the currency used.[12]

        According to the Board of Governors, the Federal Reserve is independent within government in that "its monetary policy decisions do not have to be approved by the President or anyone else in the executive or legislative branches of government." Its authority is derived from statutes enacted by the U.S. Congress and the System is subject to congressional oversight. The members of the Board of Governors, including its chairman and vice-chairman, are chosen by the President and confirmed by the Senate. The government also exercises some control over the Federal Reserve by appointing and setting the salaries of the system's highest-level employees. Thus the Federal Reserve has both private and public aspects.[13][14][15][16] The U.S. Government receives all of the system's annual profits, after a statutory dividend of 6% on member banks' capital investment is paid, and an account surplus is maintained. In 2010, the Federal Reserve made a profit of $82 billion and transferred $79 billion to the U.S. Treasury.[17] This was followed at the end of 2011 with a transfer of $77 billion in profits to the U.S. Treasury Department.[18]
      • Jacks488 3 months ago
        or puppet show
    • Maverick  •  3 months ago
      Should it be illegal for a government-sponsored agency to bet against you?
      What kind of stupid does it take to vote no on this? I always thought that line was at 2% of the population. Looks like it has grown to 21%. We are toast.
    • Larry  •  Marble Falls, Texas  •  3 months ago
      The financial markets will shrug off a Greek default -- then the bank's 'traders' will buy more of their post-default debt. Rinse and repeat.
    • a cat  •  Bellevue, Washington  •  3 months ago
      C'mon in Italy, Potugul, And Spain the water is fine.
    • H  •  3 months ago
      Now it's just a matter of waiting for the bubble to pop...
    • Joseph  •  New Hartford, New York  •  4 months ago
      Headline January 24, 2025: Europe Hopeful on Greek debt deal
      • Chet 4 months ago
        Exactly! And the markets will bounce on this great news... Musical chairs where they keep adding chairs is one stupid game. Like marathon dancing I suppose..
    • Appletree  •  3 months ago
      "Despite heightened risk of a 'disorderly' resolution to the Greek debt crisis, the financial markets gave a collective shrug on Tuesday." This tells you that the banks have all laid off their debt to the scavengers at 50% or less.
    • Tom Troxler  •  Highlands Ranch, Colorado  •  3 months ago
      It seems that like the market, the info on world market is also rigged. Please tell me every thing is ok, please.lol
    • Paul  •  Meriden, Connecticut  •  3 months ago
      what did i remember seeing earlier this year? oh yeah: its not if the euro can be saved anymore, it's whether or not the euro can break up in an orchestrated and orderly manner!
      • Maverick 3 months ago
        The lingo is to wind down its positions.
    • Tom  •  4 months ago
      ... he says as the dollar continues to rally.
    • luckyshot  •  Riverview, Florida  •  3 months ago
      personaly, i've got a bad feeling. if you have market positions you may want to lighten up. i did and i would rather miss a 3% rise thru february than risk an overnight selloff of 700 points and the panic that could cause. remember stocks are only as liquid as the bid and the bid could be pulled at any time. we've been lucky bulls since october and we are amazingly close to 2007 highs considering the global situation. the banks were leveraged 60 to 1 and had to be bailed out or crash & burn. just reported yesterday, the fed's balance sheet is now leveraged 131 to 1. good luck to all.
      • Maverick 3 months ago
        The sad thing is that all that money that you take of of the market might not mean a thing when it becomes worthless, except to burn to heat a can of beans.
    • westerner  •  4 months ago
      Today the euro soars for no reason at all. Tomorrow it will dive for no reason at all. This is a schizophrenic market.
    • anarchist  •  4 months ago
      tick, tick, tick, tick...., tick,.... BOOM. Just a question of how many ticks before the boom.
    • Tiramisu  •  4 months ago
      Greece this Greece that. The country has an economy equal to that of Houston Texas and is about 35th in the world.
      • Chet 4 months ago
        Italy and Spain are next - Italy, the seventh largest economy isn't far from the same situation. Spain unemployment among the youth is 25%.. These countries are dominoes leading to the U.S. - Every country (except Germany and France to a lesser degree) outsourced their way into an unemployment and real estate time bomb. Every country will monetize their debts, non of which can be paid back and bond holders and the financial system will suffer greatly - this will not end well. That's why people are 'concerned' about Greece, it's what logically follows that's scary. Meanwhile the S&P and multinationals are whistling past the graveyard.
    • A Yahoo! User  •  Chicago, Illinois  •  4 months ago
      Translation; The Euro is CRAP, the dollar is bigger CRAP
    • The Rigged Market  •  4 months ago
      "Market shrugs it off" my arse. It's more like "low-volume meltups inflated market the past 3 years." Yes - let's see what the market does when Greece officially defaults and the banks around the world and pay up with their worthless assets backing them.
    • No-one  •  Nice, France  •  3 months ago
      Whether money is printed in exess of growth of the economy can be veryfied b the amount in circulatiofrom a year to the next
    • Paul  •  3 months ago
      I have a ouija board that makes more sense then the two guys on the clip.

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