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    Models Behaving Badly Led to MF’s Global Collapse – People Too: Emanuel Derman

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    "The entire system has been utterly destroyed by the MF Global collapse," Ann Barnhardt, founder and CEO of Barnhardt Capital Management, declared last week in a letter to clients.

    Whether that's hyperbole or not is a matter of opinion, but MF Global's collapse — and the inability of investigators to find about $1.2 billion in "missing" customer funds, which is twice the amount previously thought — has only further undermined confidence among investors and market participants alike.

    Emanuel Derman, a professor at Columbia University and former Goldman Sachs managing director, says MF Global was undone by an over-reliance on short-term funding, which dried up as revelations of its leveraged bets on European sovereign debt came to light.

    In the accompanying video, Derman says MF Global was much more like Long Term Capital Management than Goldman Sachs, where he worked on the risk committee for then-CEO John Corzine.

    A widely respected expert on risk management, Derman is the author of a new book Models. Behaving. Badly: Why Confusing Illusion with Reality Can Lead to Disaster, on Wall Street and in Life.

    As discussed in the accompanying video, Derman says the "idolatry" of financial models puts Wall Street firms — if not the entire banking system — at risk of catastrophe. MF Global was an extreme example of what can happen when the models — and the people who run them -- behave badly, but if Barnhardt is even a little bit right, expect more casualties to emerge.

    Aaron Task is the host of The Daily Ticker. You can follow him on Twitter at @aarontask or email him at altask@yahoo.com

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    87 comments

    • DrChetat  •  6 months ago
      Looks like felony theft to me... why isn't this criminal in jail? Oh, I see... too many other criminal friends in high places. In other words. too big to prosecute.
      • Yahoo User 6 months ago
        It is NOT "too big to prosecute". It IS "too many other criminal friends" would be endangered/encriminaled themselves.
    • A  •  6 months ago
      Criminal Activity? Failure of the CFTC & SEC? Complicity and Coverup by the Justice Department? Political Cronyizm? Goldman Sachs & JPMorgan benefitting? Take your pick...
    • Dennis  •  6 months ago
      So, where is the perp walk? The Feds have not even interviewed Corzine yet. Why not? I say "OFF WITH HIS HEAD!!"
      • Paul Morphy 6 months ago
        I dunno, but I bet Harry Markopoulos has already investigated Corzine, a couple of times by now.
      • Betsy 6 months ago
        Since he's already lawyered up, I doubt he will agree to an interview unless they grant him immunity, which would be a really bad idea. I'm content to let the investigators try to figure out where the $1.2 million or billion or whatever it is disappeared to -- and then bring criminal charges. More information is always helpful.
      • Ed 6 months ago
        So more taxpayer money being wasted with politicians getting involved calling for hearings. What the company did was not illegal. Common practice at brokerages was not to do it, but it was legal. I have no sympathy for people who do not read the agreements, you took a chance and you lost. So what are we going to do now? Bail out brokerage houses with taxpayer money like the banks and money market accounts? Of course the republicans are angry, I am sure some of the politicians have had people managing their money that used that brokerage house.
    • john  •  6 months ago
      Leverage and big egos are the problem. MF was leveraged $40 of debt to $1 in assets. When the positions went against them the lenders required additional capital. Rather than liquidate, they put-up customer assets hoping the positions would turn around.
      • bo 6 months ago
        Using customer funds was illegal. Unfortunately, 40 to 1 leverage is not. People buy houses with no money down. That's not only infinite leverage, but the seller had to pay the 6% real estate commission. The buyer has no skin in the game - no wonder the economy collapsed.
      • ConstitutionMan 6 months ago
        Agree. Just to clear up potential confusion, 40-1 means $40 of debt to $1 in equity. $40 of debt plus $1 in equity would give you $41 in assets. It would be like me with $1 in my pocket free & clear, borrowing $40 more. I would have $41 of assets in my pocket at the end of the day.
      • Mathwizard 6 months ago
        No, you would have $41 in your pocket at some point in the day. but none in your pockect by the end of the day, if you are MF Global.
    • A A  •  6 months ago
      600 million 1,2 billion 1,6 billion what is matter?
      The important thing is that we arrest and take away the kids of a lady who shoplifts a 5 dollar sandwich in Safeway...
      Or we give a 3 year jail term to a Missisipi woman who received $4,000 in food stamps illegally (and paid the sum back)
      Now sure these other two people were guilty of a crime.... but when someone steal 1.2 billion and gets away scott-free...
      Or all the other collaborators in the 50 billion dollar Madoff ponzi scheme who never got arrested.
      Or the CEOS or pillaged or the funds from bankrupt companies.
      Or Fannie and Freddie mack CEOS getting huge bonuses from taxpayer bailouts
      You think thats fair...
      To arrest two poor ladies who commited minor crimes?
      • Ed 6 months ago
        So more taxpayer money being wasted with politicians getting involved calling for hearings. What the company did was not illegal. Common practice at brokerages was not to do it, but it was legal. I have no sympathy for people who do not read the agreements, you took a chance and you lost. So what are we going to do now? Bail out brokerage houses with taxpayer money like the banks and money market accounts? Of course the republicans are angry, I am sure some of the politicians have had people managing their money that used that brokerage house.
      • Pansy 6 months ago
        It's in the trillians now. Come on Ed. #$%$ You are most uninformed. There are contracts and guarantees, and FDIC. What the company (MF GLOBAL) did was so much illegal! People who had legitimate accounts, just like if they had them at Merrill Lynch or Smith Barney lost everything. Their account were LOOTED. They were told, when they checked their accounts and saw they were empty, SORRY! They were told that their accounts were guarnteed
      • STEVE 6 months ago
        Ed, if funds were comingled, that is prima facie illegal.
    • A Yahoo! User  •  6 months ago
      Is "behaving badly" the new, politically correct way to refer to criminal behavior?
    • Getting Tired  •  6 months ago
      Plain and simple, the US financial system, and Wall Street in particular, is corrupt to the core. There is no way to fix it under the current "system". Too many insiders, too little regulation and, most importantly, no incentive on the part of the gaurdians of We the People, those in Washington who are benefiting from the current process. Wall Street with its subprime paper has damaged the world economy to the point where there likely will be a worldwide depression when the Eurozone fails.
    • Dunnyveg  •  6 months ago
      The problem is that the conventional wisdom that crime doesn't pay has become as politically incorrect as racial epithets. During the S&L scandal of the eighties, which is dwarfed by what is going on now, over a thousand crooks were convicted. This time around, none have even been indicted. It's olly olly ox in free for the crooks, and they know it. Why would they stop when they know they'll get away with it free and clear.

      Americans had better wake up and smell the foulness while they still have a country to save.
    • Bill  •  6 months ago
      Mathematics nearly buried the Roman Catholic Church when the Cardinals refused to believe Copernicus was correct. They changed a central tenant of the church to match the new reality that the earth really does revolve around the sun. Wall Street needs to see the new reality that the financial world revolves around a country far away which is in light when we are in darkness. Our debt is crushing us, and gamblers like Corzine continue to bet on bad actors. Until the US political system changes we will continue to see the trifecta of Wall Street-Bankers and Congress leading our country and our precious assets down a rosy path to poverty.
      Term limits, an end to Lobbyist controlled legislation, and stopping the revolving door of politics to wall steet will go a long way to preventing catastrophies such as MF Global. The occupy movement is just the first breeze of a Hurricane of Middle Class Revolution (suggest you read or re-read Millenium People) unless we can achieve real solutions to preventing greed from running our government.
      • bo 6 months ago
        We certainly need to reign in a lot of bad practices. Resorting to a system with nearly 100 years of proven failure doesn't seem like much of a solution to me. Capitalism needs effective regulation to keep it from becoming a new form of feudalism. Socialism can not work for very long even under a tyranny, but has no chance of working in a democracy.
      • Tim Evans 6 months ago
        The road to hell is paved with good intentions.
      • Uncertainty, Inc 6 months ago
        The bad models needing review include the Moral Majority model, which has failed us. We need an ethics model to go along with reform. We need a revolution.
    • Martin  •  6 months ago
      Corzine = Crook ...............p.s. My apologies to all the crooks out there.
    • Uh, no nick name pal  •  6 months ago
      corzine=jail time
    • kynikos  •  6 months ago
      Dammit. Here I sit, bleary-eyed and without enough coffee in me to start the day, when I come across an article on Yahoo’s main page with the words “models behaving badly” in it. Through the haze, I am intrigued, thinking that we might have some Wall Street scandal involving pretty young things and corporate big wigs. Financial models. Crap. What a let down! Heck, back in the day when I had something to invest, my broker told me that the market was run by neurotics employed by psychotics. Have the neurotics become so lazy that they rely on financial models for all their decision making? Lazy neurotics. Never thought I’d see the day.

      Oh, that $1.2 billion that is “missing”? I checked under my couch cushion. No dice. Looked for five minutes before realizing I no longer have a couch. Check under the management’s individual couch cushions, then confiscate their couches.

      I need more coffee. (mumbles to self, “models, yeah right.”)
    • Candace  •  6 months ago
      So you can't apply mathematical concepts to human behavior? East is east and west is west and never the twain shall meet. Apparently, neither shall the psych and math departments of universities.
    • Michael  •  6 months ago
      my family laughed and thought I was "crazy" when i sold my 401k back in 2007. now they struggle to get to retirement, while I'm better off than before. when are people going to realize that you need to keep the cash where you can see it?
    • Interesting times  •  6 months ago
      This isn't someone behaving badly, but more like domestic terrorism.They should be treated as such and all of their assets seized and the individuals put in Guantanamo.Better yet take away their citizenship and pay the Mexicans to house them in their prison system because it'll be cheaper.
    • DonaldR  •  6 months ago
      This guy may be a genius, but his information is of no value to the financial short comings of playing derivatives. It is a market that should never have been allowed to operate in the first place. It attempts to insure poor financial decisions- that would perhaps never been made without this market. The people, the financial market, all suffer when this type of encouragement exists for those who make unsupported or even fraudulent deals. There is no controls on any deal made in this market, no government oversight, and little penalty when a disaster strikes-much like the wall street bunch. Control it or stop it!!
    • MIKE C  •  6 months ago
      Excessive Leverage and robust risk taking appetite were also major contributing elements of the MF Global failure. Read the Michael Lewis' book "Boomerang" and concentrate on the chapters concerning Iceland and Ireland for incite into what makes for such stupidity.
    • DaveBliss  •  6 months ago
      Models are only as good as the people that devised them. They don't create themselves.
    • Amerika  •  6 months ago
      "It was undone by an over-reliance on short-term funding" intentionally at the request of Goldman Sachs, and the theft was intentional. Remember, this is one of the "smartest" men in the US John Corzine.
    • Hello, Its Me  •  6 months ago
      The whole system is corupted. total collapse comming soon to a 401k to you.

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