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    Money & Politics: Freakonomics Author Gives “Big Fat No” to Idea Money Buys Elections

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    According to conventional wisdom, Mitt Romney's big Florida primary win can be attributed to one thing: Money.

    Romney's campaign outspent Gingrich by nearly 5-to-1 in the Sunshine State, with $15.4 million spent by Romney and pro-Romney Super PACs vs. just $3.7 million by Gingrich and his supporters, The NY Times reports.

    But Freakonomics co-author Stephen Dubner has made a (very) successful career of debunking conventional wisdom and gives a "big fat no" to the idea that money won the Florida election for Romney (or any election, for that matter.)

    "It's one of the great truisms in politics - 'money buys elections'," he says. "But it's just really not so."

    Citing the research of his co-author and University of Chicago economics professor Steven Levitt has done, Dubner says a candidate who doubles their spending gets an extra 1% of the popular vote. Conversely, candidates who halved their spending lost 1% of the vote. This is true in races where the same candidates run against each other multiple times and when other factors, such as the power of incumbency, are controlled for.

    And if you think about the many well-heeled candidates -- like Steve Forbes, Linda McMahon and Meg Whitman -- who've outspent their opponents by a big factor and still lost, you can start to see the Freakonomics point of view.

    Money is definitely "influential" on outcomes but "not at all" as important as what conventional wisdom holds, Dubner says.

    The theoretically unlimited spending by Super PACs is a relatively new phenomenon in politics and Dubner admits there's no way to calculate the impact negative ads have on voters' view of an opponent. "And people who tell you they do are lying."

    Correlation vs. Causation

    The influence of Super PACs may be uncertain but he says the roughly $10 million Sheldon Adelson and his wife have spent supporting Newt Gingrich pales in comparison to the "$100 of millions" of dollars worth of "free advertising" major candidates get from coverage on the nightly news or participating in televised debates.

    "It's true money matters [and] in a lot of different ways," Dubner says. "But the idea that the guy who has the most money and then spend it to get the most people to vote for him is one of these causal fallacies we'd all be really well to disabuse ourselves from."

    To Dubner, the most important factor determining the outcome of elections is a candidate's likability, which in turn can drive people to contribute to their campaign. Attributing money to the outcome of elections is like blaming the rain on people using umbrellas, he quips. "Just because two things go together doesn't mean one causes the other."

    Maybe so, but that won't stop most pundits from focusing on "money bombs" and other fundraising tallies as the 2012 campaign rolls on.

    Aaron Task is the host of The Daily Ticker. You can follow him on Twitter at @aarontask or email him at altask@yahoo.com.

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    51 comments

    • A Yahoo! User  •  Irvine, California  •  3 months ago
      Money buys elections? I'm from California and I watched Meg "Didn't vote for 28 years" Whitman throw away $140 million and lose to Jerry Brown who is one of the most distrusted people in California politics.
      • Russell 3 months ago
        Supports the article doesn’t it? JB spent much less. And, the state has never done better than w/ a Brown as governor. Most of what made us prosper was from a Brown initiative. State water project for example, and of course LA getting all the freeways.
      • Auld Phart 3 months ago
        I like "Moonbeam" voted for him every time he ran for governor.

        If he was that distrusted, why did he get elected?
      • DavidJ 3 months ago
        "If he was that distrusted, why did he get elected?"

        Because Californians are still a few steps behind the evolutionary curve.
    • Super Poor  •  3 months ago
      Why not test this by taxing political contributions at something around 90%?
    • Steve  •  Tacoma, Washington  •  3 months ago
      Whether some obscure study shows that money influences elections or not, a politician will still inevitably be beholden to the donors who shoveled millions of dollars into their campaign coffers, and will toe the line of their donors agendas. Let's not be stupid about this, and it is a shame that this most important point was not even touched on in this interview.
    • retired4good  •  3 months ago
      Mr Dubner missed four salient points although he obliquely addresses them. 1) The Citizens United decision unleashed an amount of money on campaigns that have no precedent in politics so what may have been true in the past may no longer apply. 2) He argues one side of the coin, namely does money affect votes in favor of a candidate and as we have seen in recent elections, most recently the Florida primary, an increasing amount of money goes to trying to convince people not to vote for the other guy and 3) Lastly, and more importantly, money and ads most likely to not have an impact on the committed who would vote for their candidate or party regardless. The influence comes from any effect on independent voters who decide most elections. Either he missed some data here or it wasn't presented. 4) Money (and by correlation advertising) does have effect if name recognition between the two candidates is taken into consideration. If an unknown candidate is running and devotes no money to advertising, I suspect the data would show that person loses 99 out of 100 times.
    • RobertI  •  Charlottesville, Virginia  •  3 months ago
      We'll then Ron Paul did get the short end of the stick by the obvious effort by the news media to ignore him from the beginning.
      • YFU Number One 3 months ago
        THANK GOODNESS the media has ignored Ron Paul! He’s just an old fool who wants to completely destroy this country so the LOSERS who support him can get their jollies.
      • Sunny 3 months ago
        The country is as good as destroyed if Dr. Paul does not become President.
      • johnplinney 3 months ago
        Maybe the media ignored Ron Paul because he is a nut...
    • scuba  •  Tahoma, California  •  3 months ago
      When I think of money buying elections.. it's not what they spend on the campaign, but what they promise to give you once they're in office.
    • Toadaly  •  Richardson, Texas  •  3 months ago
      Doubling your spending gets you an extra 1% of the popular vote. Most elections are won by a few percent, so increasing spending by a factor of 4 or 8 really can buy you the election. Romney outspent Gingrich in Florida by a factor of 5, which means at least a couple of the points of spread was due to that.
    • Bobby  •  New York, New York  •  3 months ago
      If money has no influence on the outcome then why not get it out of politics?
    • Michael  •  3 months ago
      Riiiiiiggghhht! And I've got Ocean Front Property in Arizona I would love to sell you.

      Seriously. Do you really think we're that dumb. You're right, the candidate with the most money does not necessarily automatically win. But that's a LONG way from saying that money doesn't buy elections. First of all, show me the non-millionaire candidate? I'm waiting.

      But most importantly, money buys campaign ads. It buys exposure. It's the life blood of campaigns. If money truly isn't important in an election, then the candidates should all be fine taking all of their funding from the same government pot. Ya. Didn't think so. Super Pacs don't form for their sheer entertainment value; they pool millions of dollars for the express purpose of influencing the election. All I've got to say on that is they wouldn't spend the money if it didn't work.

      Sure. A candidate who has all the money backing him may act like an idiot, say stupid things, and do stupid things and lose the nomination. But all things being equal, money determines who's president in this country. And it owns Congress as well.
    • Matt  •  Lake Forest, Illinois  •  3 months ago
      Is this the same money that doesn't buy happiness? Maybe you should think about changing your currency, cause all I see are rich @&(%@^%#s running for office.
    • Chad B  •  San Diego, California  •  3 months ago
      LOL. Sure it doesn't.
    • David W  •  Katy, Texas  •  3 months ago
      I like fair minded guys who out think themselves. Just like Dubner, here.

      The fact that just because two things go together does not mean that one necessariy causes the other is true, but way off the point. After all, opening umbrellas does not cause rain, but rain does cause people to open umbrellas.

      The 1% plus or minus argument on campaign spending is an analysis for a different time [pre-Citizens United] . And the analysis being confined to congressional elections, which by definition are smaller and personal, does not seem to have much application to either national elections or presidential primaries. And we are now in the interesting world where millions of funds can come from anonymous people, can be used to say false and misleading things, and the candidate for whom the money is spent can deny involvement. This is a brand new game.

      The idea that news coverage is worth more than campaign ads also misses the point: a candidate cannot control what the media says, but he can control what his political ads say. And, the reality is he also controls what the super-pacs say.

      I could go on, but why bother: Dudner is being too clever for his own good, like the little kid who thinks he has the right answer no one else thought of.
    • A Yahoo! User  •  3 months ago
      "Money doesn't buy elections"...............blink blink........you're joking, right?
    • Boynton D.  •  3 months ago
      // Steve Forbes, Linda McMahon and Meg Whitman //

      Not exactly the most qualified or charismatic people to run for office.

      Even money can't buy love!!
    • Michael  •  3 months ago
      Money is buying the Republican nomination. Basically none of us like Romney, Newt, or any of the others. That's obvious from the fact that there's a new favorite every week. And yet, what choice do we have? Money got them there and now they are our only choice other than not voting.
    • JohnS  •  Chaska, Minnesota  •  3 months ago
      It does appear to take a certain amount of cash to not have to work, and thus to be able to run for office as a full time job. I would accept the premise of this article with the caveat that you have to have a minimum amount to gain that 90% name recognition that it takes for folks to at least be aware enough to vote with some confidence. Undoubtedly likeability is the key factor. Too bad folks don't take the time to examine policy with an eye towards historical success of those policies.
    • Buck Ofama  •  3 months ago
      dubner is definitely dorky
    • David I.  •  3 months ago
      Don't be naive, this isn't the 1800's, of course money buys election to office.
    • CARFÆRE  •  Morton Grove, Illinois  •  3 months ago
      While I agree with Dubner and Levitt that money (for an unpopular) can't buy elections, it can, I think, contribute significantly toward making a candidate unpopular--look at what the Swift Boat ads did to John Kerry...because the Super-Pacs can't be held accountable to even the most minimal standards of truth and decency in running attack/character assassination ads, they've become, not only a pollutant on the airways, but, given the political naievety of many Americans, a clear and present danger to our democracy.
    • Not Me  •  3 months ago
      Elections are like love - you can't buy it with money... but you can rent it for a little while

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