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No Clear Picture of Job Market Strength Until Next Spring: Nariman Behravesh

Daily Ticker

Well that was disappointing.

The long-delayed jobs numbers report is in and the data is lackluster. In September, the economy added just 148,000 jobs. Economists polled by Bloomberg were looking for a consensus number around 180,000. So that's a miss. Unemployment fell from 7.3% to 7.2%.

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Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at global consulting firm IHS, was pretty much spot on with his September jobs forecast of 155,000.

He tells The Daily Ticker that the ongoing fear of the shutdown and its impact likely clouded the numbers. And Behravesh expects that trend to continue longer than you might think.

"It is going to be very hard for anybody to figure out what the underlying strength of the job market is and we probably have to wait until December or January to figure that out."

Yahoo Finance editor-in-chief Aaron Task asked Behravesh if that means the data around jobs numbers will be cloudy until Spring.

"It could well be... " says Behravesh but "hope springs eternal" that the next round of debt ceiling talks will be easier.

Related: Lousy Jobs Data Mean Fed Will Not Taper in September: Nariman Behravesh

When Behravesh came to The Daily Ticker in early September, he correctly predicted that the Fed would not "taper" that month. He now says it's likely they'll wait until 2014.

Watch the video above to see his forecast for holiday sales and consumer confidence.

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