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    Not Only is Peter Lynch Wrong, Stocks in General Are a Bad Investment, Says Index Investor Hebner

    The Peter Lynch investment mantra to "buy what you know" is just wrong, plain and simple, says Index Funds Advisors president Mark Hebner.

    Not only that. He says stock picking, in general, is an all around bad bet.

    Why? Hebner lists a couple reasons:

    #1 — Let's Make a Deal

    If someone wants to invest in stock A, he or she has to first find a seller of stock A. But, if said stock is such a great investment, why would anyone want to sell in the first place?

    #2 — No Risk-Return Premium

    Investing in individual stocks is much riskier than investing in a diversified portfolio.

    "Essentially all stocks have the same expected return as the market which is roughly 9.5 percent," he tells Henry in the accompanying clip. "It makes no sense at all to buy an individual stock with this huge range of outcomes, when you can have the same expected return at a narrower range of outcomes."

    #3 — Information is "Baked in the Cake"

    All investors and their information are basically created equal, says Hebner.

    "Why would one individual think they know more than these millions of people all over the world whose opinions have already been aggregated in that price?" he asks. "What information do you know — or some investor know -- that is not already baked in the cake?"

    So, if you cannot consistently win -- and win big -- by picking stocks, what should you do?

    Hebner says, forget stocks and mutual funds, "all you have to do is buy the market" by investing in a diversified portfolio of index funds that incorporate emerging markets, international markets and the U.S. market. And, with each of these segments, he recommends focusing on the asset classes that have had a historically higher return.

    For more on this topic, see: Most Mutual Funds Are Ripping You Off, Says IFA's Mark Hebner

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    119 comments

    • Michael  •  1 year 1 month ago
      I gotta tell Warren Buffett how he is screwing up.
      • Anon 1 year 1 month ago
        Buffett endorsed Obama in 2008 and he's been providing cover for BO ever since. The great man has outlived his usefullness and should retire... i sent him a lengthy email taking him to task over Obama and his investment performance over the past few years... last sentence was Time for you to retire!
      • Index Fundsadvisors 1 year 1 month ago
        Over the 9 year 11 month period ending nov 2010, Berkshire Hathaway underperformed an Index Portfolio 80, which was at the same risk.
      • Index Fundsadvisors 1 year 1 month ago
        My point was that an index fund is the best way to own equities. Warren Buffett tells you the same thing:
        Three Annual Reports from Warren Buffett mention Index Funds.
        1. ..the best way to own common stocks is through index funds...
        - Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway Inc. 1996 Shareholder Letter
        2. Additionally, those index funds that are very low-cost (such as Vanguard���s) are investor-friendly by definition and are the best selection for most of those who wish to own equities.
        - see page 10 of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. 2003 Annual Report
        3. Over the 35 years, American business has delivered terrific results. It should therefore have been easy for investors to earn juicy returns: All they had to do was piggyback Corporate America in a diversified, low-expense way. An index fund that they never touched would have done the job. Instead many investors have had experiences ranging from mediocre to disastrous. - page 5, 2004 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Report
    • Common Man  •  1 year 1 month ago
      Well, what do you know... the first sentence comes with a link to Hebner's firm. How much did he pay Daily Ticker or Yahoo Finance to post this adver... I mean article?
    • Sloan  •  1 year 1 month ago
      Peter has published a number of books, ALL considered excellent, down to earth and reasonable! Peter did not use options! No derivatives! Peter like Buffett did not invest in things he did not understand. He visited the company, the facilities, talked to management. Peter's results over twenty years speak for themself!

      Mark Hebner is a pushing his index view. WOW! Great innovation there! Why listen to this guy? Bogle invented indexing. Read Bogle! Any reasonably intelligent investor can select a diversified portfolio of index funds as Bogle recommends, keep costs low, and do fine based on history.

      There are great managers who like Lynch in his day deliver above average returns. These great managers and their funds are easily identified. Get informed, do your research, follow your comfort level, make a plan and follow it. Vanguard Index Funds and ETFs are great low cost products. Your choice. WHy does ANYONE pay a load today? But many do with sky high cost and poor results.

      The fact is most Americans save little, they spend more time researching a new flat panel TV than their investment choices. Most do not have a will. Americans fail financial planning 101. It is not that hard. And the wolves in the financial world get fat on the sheep.
      • STEVE 1 year 1 month ago
        Which is the main point of the article.
      • Ed_B 1 year 1 month ago
        "Peter did not use options! No derivatives!"

        Both Lynch and Buffet are classic investors and not smoke and mirrors artists. They only invest in REAL things. Had the banking system done that for the past several years, it is unlikely that we would have had the depression that started in 2008.
    • Index Fundsadvisors  •  1 year 1 month ago
      You would think if Peter Lynch had some secret to beat the market, he would have passed it on to his successors. Maybe he just wanted to keep it to himself, because none of his successors came even close to his record.
      • keith 1 year 1 month ago
        That's because his secret was most likely insider trading.
      • dj kumquat 1 year 1 month ago
        he wrote books about his "secrets."
      • STEVE 1 year 1 month ago
        Actually, the books CLAIM to be about his "secrets." Only HE knows the truth.
    • Alex1444  •  1 year 1 month ago
      Another EMH (Efficient Market Hypothesis) idiot. Yeah Peter Lynch was clueless, Warren Buffett was lucky, Jim Cramer adds nothing more than random chance. All share prices are "correct" at all times. I'm not buying it. I'll stick with Lynch, Buffett, Cramer and forget random-walk indexer Hebner. Heebner (Ken) yes, Hebner no.
      • David 1 year 1 month ago
        People like this guy like to ask questions like "why eat, when you're just going to die anyways" and "why work when you're just going to retire and only have a house and a car to show for it".... who cares why, because it feels good and everyone else does it, and I'm fine with that
      • STEVE 1 year 1 month ago
        I'm sure all these people you mention will enjoy taking your money.
      • Ed_B 1 year 1 month ago
        I don't know if Ken Heebner enjoyed taking my money or not. But I can tell you that I sure as hell enjoyed the returns that we got from his CGM Focus fund. 2007 was particularly juicy with an 80% annual return. :-)
    • Inspector Javert  •  1 year 1 month ago
      This guy is the biggest idiot yet. There are a thousand reasons to sell a stock, including you need money to buy something else, or need money for everyday life. Reason 2 or 3 are the most boneheaded reasons I have ever seen. How can this guy get any facetime with any news outlet? I am dumber for having read this nonsense. What a tool.
    • concernedcitizen  •  1 year 1 month ago
      He should beat Peter Lynch's record first before he mentions his name
    • Ranger001957  •  1 year 1 month ago
      If my only choice of investment managers were Mark Hebner or Peter Lynch, I would pick Peter Lynch in an instant.
    • Skipto  •  1 year 1 month ago
      Yes, Peter Lynch was an idiot and only beat the indexes on a consistent basis...
    • Chris  •  1 year 1 month ago
      Probably the worst reasoning ever -
      Argument against Reason 1) People sell for a million reasons - need cash, think they've found a better stock, stock has already met their expectations. You can't use personal reasoning and thinking (whether rational or irrational) to argue something like this. Under the same point, if investing in the indices is so great, how could I possibly invest in them? Wouldn't everyone be holding on to their shares in the indices and not sell and prices skyrocket?
      Argument against Reason 3) What makes people think they are smarter than the millions of people whose opinions are already factored into the price? You would have to argue that the markets are ALWAYS rational, hence no bubbles. Millions of people thought that investing in the tech bubble with zero earning was a great idea. Does that mean there weren't people smart enough to see such things is unfeasible. This article is extremely poor - I can't believe it was even posted on yahoo.
    • David  •  1 year 1 month ago
      I bought AAPL stock when I bought my first iPhone - that was when it was $194. Worked fine for me
    • Chuck Darwin  •  1 year 1 month ago
      Unfortunately, the reasoning given by Mark Hebner is faulty. Selecting individual stocks with a wide distribution of returns does not typically yield the same returns with higher risk than an index, even if the expected return rates are identical. To see this, all one has to do is consider the following simple thought experiment: Compare two portfolios, Portfolio A and Portfolio B. Portfolio A consists of a $1,000 initial investment numerous index funds producing a constant annual increase of 10%. Portfolio B consists of a $1,000 initial investment, equally partitioned among two stocks. $500 is initially invested in the first stock with no increase/decrease in value ever. The remaining $500 is initially invested in a second stock with an annual increase of 20%. Note that the returns, averaged over the investments, are identical for both portfolios: 10%. Let's assume all investments compound discretely.

      After the first year, Portfolio A is worth $1,100 and Portfolio B is worth $600+$500=$1,100

      So far, they have identical returns, but here on out you're compounding to a greater extent on the 20% stock investment.

      After the second year, Portfolio A is worth $1,210, whereas Portfolio B is worth $1,220

      After the 10th year, Portfolio A is worth $2,593.74, and Portfolio B is worth $3,595.87

      After the 30th year, Portfolio A is worth $17,449.40 and Portfolio B is worth $119,188.20! (6.8x the amount in Portfolio A)!

      In reality, you're subjecting yourself to more risk with a Portfolio B approach. I'm not advocating one investment model over another.
    • socceryblue  •  1 year 1 month ago
      So....., this enlightening works kinda like this: Don't pay slots/craps/roulette and risk a big win/loss (INDIVIDUAL STOCKS), just buy stock in the owner of the casino and ride his coatails( INDEX FUND)? Might work...sounds rather boring for thrill seekers.
    • NathanG  •  1 year 1 month ago
      I have used Peter Lynch's principles for years and I have beaten the market every year. Information is not equal for investors because there are a lot of investors who have no idea how to value companies. They just use momentum or they hear analysts talk about a company on tv.
    • matman  •  1 year 1 month ago
      He is still a fund advisor and he makes money on your money. When you buy stocks, you don't pay an "advisor". You may pay a small transaction fee, but an "advisor" is not constantly skimming - for what? They usually don't advise you at all, and when the market is tanking, they are still getting paid. Diversify your stock picks and that will help to smooth out the gains and losses. Another option is OPTIONS which also help smooth out losses ( and gains to be honest) but decrease risk.
    • BW44  •  1 year 1 month ago
      Wow, this Hebner guy is ridicolous as Peter Lynch has the track record to prove it. How does Hebner make money? He probably charges a WRAP fee and puts money in index funds. So if he charges 1% a year his clients all get one percent less then the index year after year.
    • Andy Gaia  •  1 year 1 month ago
      Summarization of above:

      1) don't buy individual stocks, you're not as smart as everybody else
      2) don't buy stocks or mutual funds, you should only invest in a diversified portfolio of index funds
      3) btw, I run an index fund

      Conclusion: Hmmmm....
    • Lance Paddock  •  1 year 1 month ago
      I always love when somebody justifies their claims with claims of logic such as "I don't believe that ayone can..." as Mr. Hebner does. His belief is not the issue. This has been studied to death, and the issue has been decided. Institutional investors as a group do outperform the markets and exhibit skill. While it is true that mutual funds and other institutional investment vehicles on average do not, it is not because professional investors do not demonstrate verifiable skill. They do. The institutional and commercial reasons that skill does not show up in returns of their clients on average (though many have done much better over very long stretches of time) are beyond the scope of a comment.

      Since we know that professional investors as a group demonstrate skill, we can assume that some individual investors can as well. Whether any particular individual investors will be able to do so is another question entirely, and a much better argument for Mr. Hebner to make, but it is not because his "belief" is correct. It is not.
    • T  •  1 year 1 month ago
      This is the same theory as that described in "A Random Walk Down Wall Street" - that nobody can consistently beat the market, and that when you factor in the trading costs of equity mutual funds, nobody in the long run can beat an index fund.
    • stockproTX  •  1 year 1 month ago
      1) People sell because they've made their 2% on a swing trade, or they are cutting their losses - and often has nothing to do with the fundamentals of the company. As a longer term investor, I buy because I'm willing to hold the stock through all of this noise and am looking for the longer term gain.

      2) to say that the expected return of an individual stock is the same as the expected return of the market is just plain wrong. Where did this guy go to school?

      3) It's all baked in? If you believe that the market is that efficient in the short term, then you need to give this guy your money, because, well , your not too smart.

      4) I agree this article is all about publicity and getting his name plastered all over Yahoo. The sad fact is many gullible, less knowlegable investors will take the bait and believe the @#$%. And this guy will just get richer. So, he's a smart marketer and will take your money, but he knows nothing about investing.

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