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    Peter Morici: “It’s Fantasy and Folly” to Believe Greek Restructuring Can Be Avoided

    The Greek debt crisis is not on the official agenda at this week's G8 meeting, but it's certainly top of mind for policymakers gathering in Deauville, France.

    "It is a fantasy and a folly" to believe a Greek debt restructuring can be avoided, says economist Peter Morici, a business professor at the University of Maryland. "Sooner or later Greece will have to restructure its debt."

    Morici compares Greece to a homeowner who makes $100,000 a year but owes $1 million on a mortgage. "There's no debt extension that's going to work…other than writing down some of the debt," Morici says. "Sooner or later the Greek creditors…are going to have to take a big haircut."

    Those creditors include German and French banks, which is why "this is a much a banking crisis as it is a sovereign debt crisis," he says. (See: A Greek Default Won't Be 'Contained', John Mauldin Says)

    As a result, EU policymakers seem determined to kick the proverbial can down the road as far as possible, in order to 'buy time' for Spain and Italy. Just papering over the problem with more money — either from German taxpayers or the ECB - won't fix what caused the problems in the first place, which is the very idea that European monetary union makes sense in the first place. Still, "buying time" may prove irresistible to policymakers, Morici says.

    "Politicians are like children in a candy story," he says. "They don't worry about the cavities they will receive or the money their parents will have to pay filling those cavities. They just want their candy now."

    Aaron Task is the host of The Daily Ticker. You can follow him on Twitter at @atask or email him at altask@yahoo.com

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    38 comments

    • TS  •  1 year 0 months ago
      I must say, I really liked the politician/candy analogy. Very accurate and to the point!!
      • Highland of Olney 1 year 0 months ago
        Low taxes + social services = candy.

        People seem to think low taxes are a good thing, always.
        Lower taxes to zero then. That should be the best outcome of all, shouldn't it?

        Soldiers, policemen, firefighters, and elected officials should all be volunteers. They won't mind. As for paying interest on the national debt. Just default. Oops. "Do over!"

        Low taxes are part of the "entitlement mindset" conservatives complain about. They should have all government services like the SEC that guard their investments and the military they love so much free of charge. Grow up, all of ya. Left and right.
      • The Bis 1 year 0 months ago
        also appreciated the professor's honesty about politicians and the detriments of social democratic policies.
    • Magic Dog  •  1 year 0 months ago
      How much are the U.S. Fedederal Reserve Banks involved in this and how much of a bath are we going to take when it happens?
      • yahoo user 1 year 0 months ago
        Just Greece defaulting will be minimal to the U.S. Now if Greece defaulting takes the other PIIGS down, this could crash the U.S. government also.
      • Bourbon 1 year 0 months ago
        worry more about the USA itself, we are "going Greek" financially
    • yahoo user  •  1 year 0 months ago
      A very good article Peter Morici. 30 years ago we were taught a country with a debt ratio of 60% debt to GDP was still manageable, 100% was broke, and 200% didn't come back. Greece is in the 150% debt to GDP and they are not coming back. 2 good things happen id a country defaulting on its debt.

      1. The investors get a haircut, which makes them a little more careful about who they lend money to again.

      2. The country that defaulted, learns there is a limit to how much money it can borrow.
      • A Yahoo! User 1 year 0 months ago
        the country defaulted is a winner as greek did many times before. next time, they will find a clever way to borrow again. good life and good business and why not? they will learn to be smarter and find way to borrow more and Goldman Sach will be there to help
    • Ken  •  1 year 0 months ago
      It's interesting to hear the tough talk that Peter Morici has regarding Greece, Protugal and Germany when the USA is basically in the same boat or maybe worse. I never hear that tough talk regarding the USA debt from anyone!! It's ammazing. Not to mention the state and local government debt that is even in wrose shape. The USA keeps trying to tell other countries what to do when the USA may even look worse in the eyes of the world.
      • Valhalla360 1 year 0 months ago
        The US debt is an issue but greece has a much more difficult situation. We can print more dollars and then pay the debt with cheaper dollars. Not good but doable.
        -
        Greece would love to do this but deflating the euro would cost german people due to less buying power. Since germany has more power in the EU, greece has no way out.
      • ps g 1 year 0 months ago
        Greece is in a MUCH worse position. Their debt is 120% of GDP as of last year. The US debt is a little over 60% of GDP. And the Greek GDP would fit in a thimble compared to the US GDP.

        Also in productivity per person, the US is #4 in the world. Greece is #24. They need to take less vacations and trim their benefits to fix that number if they want a long-term solution.
      • AS 1 year 0 months ago
        A fully agree with Ken. The current problems of the US are not solved or lessened by the US having its own currency; if it that was possible, Argentina would not have had the crisis it did. Seeing the the US problems somehow less serious is just another example of home country bias. Somehow it would be seen as unpatriotic to admit that the US is right up there with worst countries in terms of its indebtedness. The US has over 10% budget deficit (just like Greece) and its debt was 92% of GDP in 2010 (not 60% as Ps G thinks) according to the WSJ.
    • Valhalla360  •  1 year 0 months ago
      American debt is problem but Greece is much worse off since they can't print money and pay off the debt with cheaper euros effectively hiding the restructuring. Greece will have no choice but to eventually come out and call it a restructuring. That will panic the markets and suck the rest of the PIGS in and then germany won't be able to manage the situation.
      -
      Unfortunately, the german polititians are just trying to get past the next set of elections and pushing the problem down the road is the cheapest way to do that.
      • andy 1 year 0 months ago
        An inflationary default causes a lot of problems too.
    • Gerd  •  1 year 0 months ago
      Debt is good if money was plowed into infrastructure, industry and basic research and development. But Greek took money and took a vacation. Now bill is due and Greek still dio not have a clue what is demanded by German investors. It seems all nations in sunny area is having a financial problem.

      German should not have joined EU. I still like German Mark.
    • A Yahoo! User  •  1 year 0 months ago
      What will NOT happen:
      No one will escape unscathed.
      It will be a problem for the EU,
      China, Russia, The US and all
      the rest of the world to some
      extent.
      When the house of cards falls,
      all will feel the pain.
    • DirkD  •  1 year 0 months ago
      Compound the problem with the fact that Greece's economic fuel is tourism/vacationing...a total currency dependant economy! Unless the worldwide desire for feta and ouzo goes through the roof, Greece is in dire straights.
    • dudeman  •  1 year 0 months ago
      Greece has got to leave the Euro. Only way out.
    • PAOLOA  •  1 year 0 months ago
      US Restructuring can't be avoided.
    • frankmargel.com  •  1 year 0 months ago
      Good day Aaron, Peter and all my friends and pals right here on the Ticker. In the real world of wise economics only the most stupid can't grasp what really drives the banks to action. Let's take a look at the failed banking policy producers that continue to hide behind all this talk of rescue and rewrites. Failed leaders have produced a failed banking system relying on the government and tax payers to save the world. The solution? Look at the American fly boy president building on campaign speeches and false hope to save the new world order. Try this, vote for a president that represents responsible and sound economics that made America the true leader of the free world. Or, vote for a town clown fly boy that dances around the world and runs from the truth. The truth? America is bankrupt and flying around the world doesn't work! America is broke and Obama is not helping. Save the fuel there superstar fly boy, thanks, Frank out! Get it? I do... Later babes! NEXT!
    • Hopeful  •  1 year 0 months ago
      The Worlds in Debt Crisis mode and soon there will be now way for America to keep funding this house of Cards, this huge Ponsi Scheme it is built on lies and is doomed no matter how you figure it. But this is what they want any way Chaos.
    • here I am caught in the m ...  •  1 year 0 months ago
      Greece says NO to IMF and ECB you can't have Greece for 12 billion. There goes the euro and there goes their bonds. Greece will be leaving euro zone. Have a good weekend.
    • here I am caught in the m ...  •  1 year 0 months ago
      Prime minister of greece gets new deal from euro zone. Give us greece or you are out. So prime minister says her president of greece take the power, I am out of here, you can find me enjoying spring time in France. What else do I have to say. Greece like all southern countries must give up there countries now. Wow, what a wonderful world. Germany won the war, they did it with a pen and greed from all sides.
    • Peter New  •  1 year 0 months ago
      Replace greece with USA and you don't have to do anything about the story; The main thing is that
      they don't do anything about the deficit; Cut all foreign military action or sell Ford Knox
      (is there still gold ?), these things will solve the deficit problem. Last but not least stop
      spending more then you earn !! Is this so hard to understand.
    • sams  •  1 year 0 months ago
      Most people in the US don't know this, but the Greek Government tried to sell a few small Greek Islands to private investors: to International hotels and vacation developers, etc... So far no luck. There are two reasons for this failure: the asking price was ridiculous (they should have asked a tenth or less) and they did not put anything good on the market. Just a few barren rocks on the Aegean Sea. If the Greek Government was serious about paying their debt, they can sell the Island of Rhodes for $100 Billion. But that would be too unpopular, especially for the Socialists in power. Besides, they have never been (and still are not) serious about having any intention of paying the money back. They figure that one of or another they can stick the bill to Germany.
    • Martin  •  1 year 0 months ago
      Reform! There is no reforming the criminal banking terrorists. Peter is still in an academic haze failing to see that the policies he finds fault with are not mistakes but an orchestrated plan by the big investment houses around the world which manipulate the fraud of the central banking system to acquire, by excess debt and subsequent foreclosure, ownership of the world similar to the feudal system in which the few own everything and rest of us are reduced to peonage and slavery through the chains of debt.

      The U.S. Republic is (was?) a miracle in human history where the citizen is the sovereign with attendant rights and privileges with a government put in place to defend and serve that status.
      Yes, things have gone terribly wrong.

      When the people of the U.S., and Peter, wake up to the reality of the criminal activity by the banksters there will be resistance and revolt. The creation, step by step, of a totalitarian control of the people is part of the end game. For those of you who think I go too far ask yourselves why there are concentration type camps now built in every state of the Union, and a Patriot Act that has laid the legal groundwork to fill them without trial the trouble makers who won't be shackled by the chains of debt. Am I wrong to put forward the opposition that the outrages of the TSA are intended to condition the people to the transformation of their status as sovereigns to that of slaves? These outrages are continuing to condition the people to the notion that we are not secure in our persons or our property but subject to arbitrary seasure by the government. The TSA is one example of many available like highway robbery being commented by state troopers. Tennessee has the scandal, e.g., of law enforcement agencies competing with each other to stop travelers and rob them of tens of thousand of dollars at a time on the pretext that the money might be part of the drug trade.

      Enough!
    • Rock Solid Truth  •  1 year 0 months ago
      China may be interested....they are buying Portugal, New Zealand, and own quite a bit of the US....maybe they will buy Greece too.......they have learned that manufacturing is too messy....better to gain control of the world the way Wall Street did. Through financial businesses.
      The new lender of last resort ????
      Will the Eurozone let that happen ???
    • Joel, center right politi ...  •  1 year 0 months ago
      The real crisis is that the Greek bottom 90% are getting screwed due to that nice sounding word called 'austerity' which is causing their economy to be screwed as well and the MSM is still doing their best to cover up that otherwise glaring factoid.
    • Tailgunnar  •  1 year 0 months ago
      Greek fantasy and folly? What about the US fantasy and folly?

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