This month marks the two-year anniversary of the "recovery" that began in June 2009. But you can easily be forgiven if you haven't noticed.
Because this recovery doesn't feel like a recovery--in part because it isn't much of a recovery. Normally, after a recession of the depth and length of the one we had in 2008 and 2009, the economy comes roaring back with GDP growth of 5%-7% for a couple of years. In the latest recovery, we've only had one quarter that exceeded 5%, and the growth last quarter was a pathetic 1.8%.
The jobs market, meanwhile, remains weak, with unemployment still at a staggering 9%. Corporate profits are hitting all time highs, which is helping the stock market, but these profits haven't translated into new hiring.
House prices continue to fall. Wage growth is stagnant. Inflation is picking up. Oil is now back over $100 per barrel. Our debt burden is still massive. And our government is still running shocking deficits of ~$1.5 trillion per year. And the rest of the world is experiencing pretty much the same thing.
Put it all together, says Mike "Mish" Shedlock, an advisor at Sitka Pacific Capital and the author of Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis, and you can draw only one conclusion: The economy's weak and getting weaker.
Mish, in fact, thinks we may be headed for another recession.
Tell us what you think!
- stock market