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    Roubini Says “Perfect Storm” May Clobber Global Economy

    NYU Professor Nouriel Roubini has seized the headlines again this morning, warning that a "perfect storm" of economic disasters may smash the global economy in 2013.

    Roubini's perfect storm consists of four factors:

    -The U.S.'s basket-case of an economy and budget deficit,
    -A potential slowdown in China,
    -European debt restructuring and
    -Stagnation in Japan.

    Roubini says there's a one-in-three chance that these factors will clobber growth in 2013.

    Now, that sounds terrifying, but it all means there's a two-in-three chance that everything will be okay. (Roubini's other two possible scenarios are "anemic growth" and "accelerating growth.")

    One problem that seems undeniable is the European debt crisis, which has defied all attempts to paper it over and kick the can down the road. Greece is broke, and no serious analyst that I know of thinks it will ever be able to pay back its debts. The logic underlying the endless bailouts and aid-packages, therefore, is to deal with the problem later and/or hope that it somehow resolves itself. In an FT editorial today Professor Roubini said that this hope was a hallucination and that the Euro-zone needs to break apart.

    "There are already elements of fragility," Bloomberg quotes Roubini as saying. "Everybody's kicking the can down the road of too much public and private debt. The can is becoming heavier and heavier, and bigger on debt, and all these problems may come to a head by 2013 at the latest."

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    1,630 comments

    • Rick  •  11 months ago
      ok now for some REAL predictions.

      1) The sun will come up tomorrow.
      2) Gasoline will be $5 per gallon within 2 years.
      3) My daughters wedding will cost me a fortune.
    • Stanfordbenet  •  11 months ago
      It's all quite simple.
      1) Clinton balances budget and leaves govt w/ projected surplus of $10 trillion!
      2) Reps take over Whitehouse and Congress for six full years.
      3) Reps cut taxes of the wealthy without cutting spending.
      4) Reps run two unnecessary wars OFF-THE-BOOKS.
      5) Republican bankers and hedge fund mgrs. clamor for more subprime mortages to slice and dice into tranches.
      6) Economy collapses.
      7) America elects first black Democratic President.
      8) Republican minority obstruct every effort of Dems to fix problems.
      9) Republicans blame blacks, Democrats and illegal aliens for economic collapse.
      10) The rich sleep well knowing the Reps will mindlessly continue to do their bidding for them as America crumbles.
    • Lyn  •  11 months ago
      The folks commenting are obviously more intelligent than the Professor and profoundly more intelligent than Henry Bloget the writer of this article.
    • ed  •  7 months ago
      This Goverment has known what was going on for a long time. They let all the crooks
      walk. The reason being the crooks will pay so our officals can walk.
    • steve  •  11 months ago
      The leaders who got us in this economic mess are rearranging the chairs for us. The leaders are already in the lifeboats
      • Joe 11 months ago
        you are right. but the chairs were already rearranged in anticipation of this mess. that's how the author's of the Federal Reserve System set it up...they bail themselves out at the expense of the taxpayer.
      • Lobster_del_Amor 11 months ago
        I didn't get a chair.
      • Linda 11 months ago
        Term limits got rid of the clueless leader who got us in this economic mess. But there are too many republicans still around from 2003, that need to be shown the door.
        If any politician that said yes to the AMERICAN DREAM DOWN PAYMENT ACT is not voted out of office in 2012, then we have no one to blame but ourselves.
        That legislation led to the housing and financial collapse and the republican recession and that was signed in 2003.
    • Alex Karras  •  11 months ago
      The US economy will never ever, ever, ever, ever recover until it returns manufacturing to its shores. Manufacturing in China aint making it, no matter how cheap the price and crummy the goods.
      • Homebrewer617 11 months ago
        You can thank Union Greed for pushing jobs overseas. You can blame corporations all you want, but the bottom line comes down to pricing your goods. Once your labor costs start to push you out of the market, you have to adjust somewhere. I serviced 3 union shops as a contractor and each one was moved overseas or to Mexico. These jobs overseas did not pay $1 per hour, but rather about $12.50 US dollars per hour. On average the union was getting $25 per hour for unskilled labor tossing screws in a machine, now factor in overtime (The lowest paying job I saw was $16/hr to empy garbages and sweep the floor all day). Skilled labor like welders were making $30-$35. Yes the money was good, but way overpriced for the job they were doing. Now add in benefits and the fact that each contract they wanted more. Where is a company to go from there?
      • Rick 11 months ago
        In one word. NAFTA. The North American Free Trade Agreement has ruined this economy. When are they ever going to see this problem. There are so many loop holes in this agreement that Clinton introduced. All the people that hold the most clout have invested in this NAFTA. That's the reason nobody will do anything about it. Would you get rid of a law that makes money for you?
      • William the Conqueror 11 months ago
        Frank,
        You're absolutely correct with your assessment of the US's economy.
        All any president has to do is increase the duties on imported goods to bring them in line with US products. Then, do what these new economic powers are doing; which is the government buys the newest equipment available and leases it to the manufacturer. If this happens, manufacturing will return to the US and our economy will come back. By the way, it will also increase employment by 5-7.5 million people, which is basically the loss of textile jobs in the US during Clinton's mandating of NAFTA.
    • A Yahoo! User  •  11 months ago
      So everything could crap out, nothing could happen or we could see accelerated growth. Sounds like all the bases are covered. That is pure genius!

      Hey the lotto numbers tonight will be between 1 and 59. The Yankees could win or lose their next game. I may or may not read another useless yahoo article.
      • kc 11 months ago
        What a turd! A complete IDIOT could see and say this. oh wait, one did.!
      • Me 11 months ago
        Nail on the head. Nicely said.
      • ElioE 11 months ago
        Exactly! What kind of nonsense is this?
    • sea kelp  •  11 months ago
      Greed will take until there is no more, then it all will be worthless!
      • MarkD 11 months ago
        And socialism works until you run out of other people's money
      • Nlightened2 11 months ago
        Greed is the black hole of any economic system.
      • don 11 months ago
        Greed is why Obama has added 5 TRILLION Dollars to the National Debit. That is why he is constantly going on vacation to distract us from his poor economy! Now Obama wants to give money to Arab nations for their "Arab Spring"! Never mind that America's economy is still bad from his failed administration!
    • auh2o  •  11 months ago
      Question: Do our congressmen and senators REALLY understand basic economics?
    • Devon  •  11 months ago
      This is not news to intelligent people. You can sit back and watch the collapse happening. It's being done deliberately. People are just too blind to see it.
    • Tom Troxler  •  11 months ago
      Ever feel like YOUR can is getting kicked down the road? All those in power have to do is say BOO and everybody jumps. No hair-cuts for the bond holders, just the working tax mules out here.
    • A Yahoo! User  •  11 months ago
      30% unemployment today. 50% unemployment around the corner. No nations economy can recover if that many people are unable to buy anything. Our politicians are only concerned with preserving the wealth of the rich and themselves.
    • george  •  11 months ago
      as I have said before, a global economy is only as strong as the weakest nation in that economy. NAFTA is a perfect example of what I'm talking about. Mexico was the weakest of the three North American countries, and instead of raising Mexicos economy to the same level as that of the US and Canada, the US and Canadian economies are falling to meet Mexicos lower levels. We need to brihg manufactaring back to the USA. This country used to be a world leader because of our manufactaring, but because of greed and stupidity in our government and coroprate CEO's we are close to becoming a great big NOTHING of a country.
    • B  •  11 months ago
      These so called "EXPERTS" must think that the "AMERICAN CITIZENS" don't know all of this already....They the "EXPERTS" need to get "OUT IN THE REAL WORLD" like us because we have known for along time how bad things really are.....
    • Ricky  •  11 months ago
      it's time to call in the dogs and bolt the doors. this country is past the point where it will have to decide to take care of it's own or give handouts to the rest of the world. we can no longer afford to hand billions of dollars to any country that says it is our friend and we can no longer afford to pay billions of dollars to fight those that are not our friends.

      we need to cancel ALL foreign aid and nation building. we need to cancel all of our so called wars. if someone really wants to start something with us i figure 1 nuke will settle the issue instead of 10 to 20 years of war, pacification and rebuilding. we need to scale back our military spending. there is no need to spend more on our military than the rest of the world combined.

      we take the money we spent on the wars and military and foreign aid use it to rebuild our own country and pay off our debt. we could have full employment and zero debt before you know it. then maybe we could lead the world by example instead of fear.
    • old prof  •  11 months ago
      The problem seems to be that no one in the entire world believes "That there is no such thing as a free meal!" When will the world and the USA governments wake up and realize that you cannot spend money that is not backed by something of value. And that the value of something is what some one else can and is willing to pay for it
    • jack  •  11 months ago
      Remember folks, the same people in charge of finding the solution to our economic crisis are the same ones that caused it ,the same ones that said houses never lose their value and the same ones that invented derivatives.They are the ones that are giving bailout money to European banks .
    • Quincy Magoo  •  11 months ago
      How Roubini sees it:
      50% chance of stable global growth.
      50% chance of global stagnation.
      50% chance of a global slowdown.
      He's trying to be the clock that is both running and stopped at the same time. And of course he'll be correct because he hasn't committed to anything. He'd make an excellent politician.
    • Peter Wolf  •  11 months ago
      Look, it does not require China and emerging countries to slow down as a precondition to U.S. collapse. Our DEBT alone will do that.
    • lonedog  •  11 months ago
      Not 2013, the end of 2011 or early 2012.

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