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    STAY STOKED APPLE FANS: This Should Be One Heck Of A Year!

    Provided by Business Insider:

    Apple started off 2012 with a barbaric yawp, blowing away even sky-high expectations for iPhone and iPad sales.

    Not surprisingly, the stock has popped to an all-time high.

    The good news for Apple fans is that there could be a lot more where that came from.

    Even more than most electronics companies, Apple is driven by product launches. Instead of offering dozens of variations of every gadget it sells, Apple makes huge bets on a handful of products--and it then rides them for the next 9-18 months after it launches them.

    Not surprisingly, these product launches are awaited with breathless anticipation.

    Unlike last year, when the company only had two major product launches (iPad 2 and iPhone 4S), both of which were upgrades of existing products and both of which left some observers disappointed, this year could feature three mega-launches, all of which might represent quantum leaps over their predecessors:

    • iPad 3 (expected in February or March, with a high-def screen)
    • iPhone 5 (expected this summer, with a much bigger screen
    • iTV (Apple's entry into the TV market, expected for the holidays)

    (See "Apple's Product Rollout Schedule" for the latest expectations).

    Meanwhile, Apple's "slow-growth" Mac business continues to gobble up share of the PC market, growing 20%+ while the rest of the industry shrinks.

    The hype and speculation leading into each of the new product launches could dampen demand for existing versions of the products, as it did for the iPhone in Q3. But because of the timing and type of the launches, this pause should be more muted than it was before the iPhone 4S was released.

    The new iPad should be here soon, just as demand for the iPad 2 begins to wane.

    The iPhone 5, meanwhile, should come relatively close on the heels of the iPhone 4S--9-12 months, versus ~18 for the 4S. And the iPhone 4S is still seeing astounding demand.

    The iTV, meanwhile, is expected to be a revolutionary new product that isn't replacing anything.

    All in all, 2012 should be chock-full of innovations spearheaded by the late Steve Jobs. And it won't be until 2013 or beyond that Apple really has to demonstrate that it can continue to innovate without Steve. (2013 will be a real moment of truth of the company. And by the last third of this year, the market will probably begin to worry about it.)

    Even at $460 a share, Apple is still trading at 15X trailing earnings--an average market multiple. And it now has ~$100 billion of cash, about 1/4 of its overall market value.  All this for a company that is still growing at an absolutely astounding rate--~70% per year--compared to the low-single digit growth of the average S&P 500 company.

    Is there downside for Apple? Of course, there's always downside, especially in a business evolving this quickly--and especially especially when there's this much bullishness and optimism.

    But if all three big launches go well this year, there should not just be plenty for Apple fans to write home about. There should also be considerable upside to the shares.

    SEE ALSO: THE TRUTH ABOUT APPLE'S STOCK PRICE

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    30 comments

    • Flipperman2a2w  •  New York, New York  •  3 months ago
      What's going to happen in the future when Apple no longer keeps rolling out innovative products? I love my iPod, my wife loves her iPad, and our friends love their iPhones, but when was the last time Apple rolled out a completely new product (not just improved versions of old products)?
      • Paul 3 months ago
        Nothing wrong with improving products. The key is having products that a wide range of people will use and Apple has done that. If the product standards stay high it should just keep going. Problems some companies have is trying to make it affordable for everyone and lowering the standards which in the end loses all customers. Apple is so big now that the US government needs to start giving them incentives as well as other large companies to build products in the USA with heavy tax breaks which helps close the gap of building abroad. The key should be jobs - yes you lose tax money but you gain by lowering unemployment benefits and increases consumer spending.
      • Conjugal Visit 3 months ago
        Umm...wasnt the ipad a brand new product? that was just a couple years ago. What kind of expectations do you have?? haha they've invented machines in the past decade that people use almost every waking hour...what else do you want? dont tell me the iphone was a spin-off from the RIM, or the Ipad was a spin-off from the labtop, or the iPod was a spin off from the...portable radio??? what do you want? the iSpaceship?
      • Vikram 3 months ago
        Apple is turning into a software story going forward with Siri and iCloud the future drivers of growth for the company. You may not see a new device but you are already seeing new "capabilities" in terms of software innovations. That is another phenomenal leap forward for Apple.
    • Invisible  •  Philadelphia, Pennsylvania  •  3 months ago
      If the iTV will be able to get cable channels ala carte, that will change the game.
      • Tom 3 months ago
        Whatever you are paying now, I guarantee you it will cost more.
    • Bill S.  •  3 months ago
      Apple grows 10x faster than the S&P, yet trades at less than the S&P market multiple and you say "Of course, there's always downside, especially in a business evolving this quickly--and especially especially when there's this much bullishness and optimism."

      Apple's P/E certainly doesn't indicate bullishness, Amazon's does.
    • ron  •  Meriden, Connecticut  •  3 months ago
      when are the shares gonna split
    • steven  •  New York, New York  •  3 months ago
      If Blodget is recommending Apple shares the stock should be sold short.
      • Steve S. 3 months ago
        Even a broken clock is right twice a day...
      • STEVE 3 months ago
        Not if it is an LED clock.
    • A Yahoo! User  •  Tucker, Georgia  •  3 months ago
      What is going to happen when folks realize these outrageous profit margins are built on near slave labor in China? Where is the outrage?
      • Jeff 3 months ago
        Better yet, where is the outrage regarding excessive profits and low tax rates! How can one company have such a strangle hold on the future of computing and be proprietary. Why isn't the government going after them?
      • NoJibbing 3 months ago
        If you shop at all, you support "slave labor in China". You can't walk into any store - clothing, electronics, toys, sports, without supporting china.
      • A Yahoo! User 3 months ago
        Tosh sadly you are right.
    • Money  •  Brandon, Florida  •  3 months ago
      A ton of sellers at $449. The institutions got their price and they sold bigtime.
    • hank  •  Minneapolis, Minnesota  •  3 months ago
      Don't forget the Apple' fortune made possible by the sweatshops in China! Don't be too proud of the products. There are people being harmed by making these products in an unsafe condition. Here is one free brand for Apple's product and it is call "Icare" where the product will be made in an unsuppressed environment.
    • Dominic  •  Washington, District of Columbia  •  3 months ago
      Does this author understand what Bullish means, it does not mean a stock that trades at the markets historic average of 10 p/e. Yes the stock has grown, but the growth reflects historic earnings. There is no bullish case to be made at this level(450), This is a value stock.
    • Rudi Steen  •  3 months ago
      Apples child slaves must be really working extra hard for at .70 an hour!
    • Appletree  •  3 months ago
      Amazing what can be done with slave labor-lite and a willing govt, and a gullible public, who want their high priced toys.
    • Time4change  •  3 months ago
      LOL "this year could feature three mega-launches, all of which might represent quantum leaps over their predecessors:

      iPad 3 (expected in February or March, with a high-def screen)
      iPhone 5 (expected this summer, with a much bigger screen
      iTV (Apple's entry into the TV market, expected for the holidays)

      HD screen, larger screen, these are quantum leaps? There is no bigger advantage than to have that high def screen to read your email and post to facebook, glad they finally figured that out. iTV might have some thing to get excited about if it's available on that high def ipad but still most will need a wifi connection and I don't see myself sitting in my living room ignoring my 55" TV so I can watch my ipad. Apple is a good company which has built a great cult following, good for them they should ride the wave while they can. Like anything else, wave do eventually crash to the shore.

      That being said both the iphone and the ipad are more or less mature, they will get upgrades as any product does but any quantum leaps will probably be in services or software. They are an innovative group, love to see where they head next. Go apple!
    • Da Bears  •  3 months ago
      Things i would love = retina display on the iTV and next iPad
    • dreams  •  Nanuet, New York  •  3 months ago
      Awesome! I hope all the child labor and keep up with the demand!!
    • dumbass  •  3 months ago
      what hyped up products, ppl pay top price so AAPL profit margin is high...1 of these days they'll come back to earth...in fact i would sell right here.
    • Joe  •  3 months ago
      To all the people referring to Chinese workers as slaves:
      When Foxxcom last expanded, they received 10 applications for each job opening. Why, when workers perform repetitive tasks 12 hours a day six days a week for $17 a week? Because they are coming from farm jobs doing repetitive tasks 12 hours a day seven days a week for less than $17 a week. Plus they get room and board at Foxxcom to boot.
    • mrjetsondc  •  Dallas, Texas  •  3 months ago
      Next from the Ghost of Jobs: the "iHandj0b- why leave the house to date when Apple can please you."
    • Tess  •  Norwalk, Connecticut  •  3 months ago
      I'm sure Walt Whitman would be thrilled to be associated with Apple..."barbaric yawp". Sheesh.
    • Ninja Al  •  Naples, Florida  •  3 months ago
      All I have to say about stories like these is the following: When you wake up in the morning and get out of bed. You get some coffee, which is good for you; and you look at the birds singing. What I am trying to say is that when people wake up, ummm ok just hear me out-or maybe read me out. Everybody loves to embrace life and sometimes...., I totally am working on it now, ....is that, well, ok this is what poets have embraced throughout the history of mankind. This is exactly the reason why anyone was to think about, the reason this is outrageous or the mere assumption that we as a mass can come together, i wouldn't, i think we need to examine ourselves and say where did the one touch alarm clocks go?..The first thing people would say, I would not assume, well, what we need to focus on is a uniform policy for cats..now don't get me wrong if one was to think about or the treatment of the sick and elderly along with crayons on a preschool floor..... If every mother, every sister or brother who ever had a father at one point in time would think about this would then think about all of this and put an end to....oh crap my phone is ringing........in closing I would like to say that I love Yahoo for making these great articles in which we are so eagerly waiting to comment on and in conclusion this brings me back to my point of.. there goes my phone again...I wonder if if is that important to keep calling..but in summary when you look outside a window you can barely see yourself but when you look at a stove you start getting hungry.. and think... when was the last time I had a stovetop meal. Really think about that for just a second and then put your shoes on or flip flops..and to totally wrap this up I think we as a society should have never gotten in claymation, Gumby and Pokey could be considered the anti-Christ, now if we think about how far we have come; as a society, group, a nation where we use storage lockers to fill up with memories and now we have the cloud, which has always been over our heads and there goes my phone again, I guess we can continue at a better time as a result of keeping up with appointments never call in sick because that can affect your personality and hygiene or you know what i mean...gotta go.
    • Jack Dee  •  Everett, Washington  •  3 months ago
      ummm apple already has a tv offering so it is not a new sector.

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