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    U.S. Debt Is ‘The Best of a Bad Lot’ and an ‘Attractive Investment’: Gary Shilling

    According to A. Gary Shilling America's economy is "the best of a bad lot". This thinking isn't going to make anyone break into a USA chant, but Shilling thinks it will be good enough to keep treasuries moving higher for the foreseeable future. "The U.S. is the ultimate safe haven in the world" he says. It's a statement at once reassuring and horrifying for anyone paying attention to the domestic economy.

    The author of "The Age of Deleveraging" and long-time bond bull notes that Europe is going to hell in a hand-basket and China is slamming on the breaks, leaving U.S. bonds "very attractive", particularly the 30-year. When asked why anyone would buy a bond paying 4.2% Shilling says he simply couldn't care less what the yield is as long as it's going down. The genially gloomy investor is expecting yields to drop all the way to 3%, a move that would spell more than attractive returns for bondholders.

    Of course you can't get excited about relative returns without asking relative to what other asset classes. Having already dismissed the rest of the global economy the obvious question is whether or not stocks can continue to levitate in the face of stubborn unemployment and anemic growth. In short, no. In longer form Shilling dismisses the bullish notion of a second half recovery. Even if the economy grows at the anemic sub-2% rate of late, and Shilling thinks GDP will be much worse, stocks are likely to start missing even low-balled estimates in Q's 3 and 4. Companies lowering estimates and missing earnings forecasts is not traditionally a bull market make.

    As for buying gold on the notion that the U.S. is going to join Europe in the hellish hand basket, rendering our dollar more or less worthless, Shilling is "agnostic". The man has his thesis and he's sticking to it: China simply has to buy our debt and the EU is crumbling, both of which are bullish for our debt.

    If you're looking for the inspirational equivalent of The Miracle on Ice it is time to start watching the women's World Cup. If you want a place to your money in the best of a bad lot of investment choices Gary Shilling says there's still plenty of time to buy bonds.

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    13 comments

    • scott b  •  10 months ago
      wonder how people are going to feel when the government has to cut 40 percent of its spending. does anyone realize how many jobs that is? im so glad i dont work for the government
      • STEVE 10 months ago
        The rich won't care (until their stocks drop) and the poor are already in trouble.
    • NightShift  •  10 months ago
      This sounds like what the German economists were saying just before the mark crashed in the Weimar republic. Dollars are really nothing but green paper backed by people's confidence. Once that confidence is eroded, they are as valuable as toilet paper.
    • scott b  •  10 months ago
      this is why we cant default. our credit rating is the last thing we have. without that we are no better than any other country in the world
      • brian aka modmax 10 months ago
        what is the difference between defaulting and borrowing more money that you cannot pay back ...answer time a bigger collapse on a higher amount.
      • bill 10 months ago
        Let see, if I put my money into a bank of china passbook account, I would be getting around 5% plus rising value of the RMB

        What is interest rate or US treasury again?
    • scott b  •  10 months ago
      one of the most ironic things about the recession is that bernanke is retiring old debt that had higher interest rates and issuing new debt at lower interest rates. in the middle of a recession, our interest payments are getting LOWER not HIGHER. wont hear any of that on the news will you
      • Odd Duck 10 months ago
        You are right that average interest rates are going down, but Bernanke has nothing to do with it. The Treasury Department under Geither is the one "retiring old debt ... and issuing new debt ..."
    • Templar  •  10 months ago
      What did he refer to as the strongest currency, a very small currency as he called it. I did not quite understand what he said.
      • John 10 months ago
        swiss franc
    • James  •  10 months ago
      So what is this guy smoking? Dollar on its way to oblivion, buying U.S. debt makes just as much sense as buying Greece's debt
      • Robert 10 months ago
        If you think Greek debt is equivalent to US debt, I want to trade with you.
      • TikAro 10 months ago
        @James, he's making a good argument, try to listen. If you look at bond yields they back up what he's saying.
    • A Yahoo! User  •  10 months ago
      Best of a bad lot......

      Instead of hiding, lets profit. A double or tripled leveraged ETF betting against the Dow, SP, Russell sounds good. Or you can make 4.2% on debt of a bankrupt country that will never get paid back .
    • scott b  •  10 months ago
      btw, the us is having no problems paying off reagans debt from 1980. i guess someones grandkids are making the payments on their grandparents loans. quit watching fox news
    • Cindi  •  10 months ago
      All our leaders throughout the USA must be paid the lowest Federal minimum wage as like in what the SSI pays, what is that? About $750 monthly maybe? Or be paid by piece work, which is zero, how have they helped any of us? And no pensions of any kind after finished with their terms. Most of us who have worked, especially minimum wages have no pension to fall back on so why should they. That's one reason why people vote, to have equal rights!

      How much are these representatives being paid compared to especially the lowest paid workers? And their pension plans compared to our Social Security Retirement or Disability or Survivors, etc. benefits. And they're paid for what, nothing other than self serving themselves.

      Now since these representatives have destroyed our country for a very long time and pulled all these stunts it should be them to lose their pay and put back all the monies they were not to touch, and not pick on the vulnerables, the retirees and disabled are punished enough with very little to live on and now they threaten to take away what little we, the people get to just get by on. I bet, not one representative will step forward and volunteer his/her pay at any cutting point.

      What is this; We, the people? Oh, it's the representatives not us!! We, the people, are supposed to be us, and we should decide on what they (representatives) should be paid and how our tax monies should be used. Everything they decide or vote for has been for them and not for us, so why bother voting anyone in ever again, it's all about the generous pensions and pay they will receive when voted in, and how to waste the taxpayers monies on what ever they wish.

      Why should I or any American who have budgeted and paid every monthly on time have to suffer for what our selfish leaders have done?
    • jeff  •  10 months ago
      I am 53 yrs.old and for the past seven years I havehad 2 major spinal surgeries and now I cannot work. I was in my own business and used my Champus instead of my business insurance so I could keep my prices at a minimum. The doctors told me i would be no longer able to perform my job and I had to give up my business. I applied for Social Security Disability and was told that I did not have enough points to qualify and My househld brought in too much money to qualify for Social Secuity. On my $1036.00 per month income, in which $521.00 is mortgage, I am having to rely on my wife to work several jobs to make ends meet. Now I am told that the children in DC can't do their jobs and some of my large income will be stopped because of the petiness that these rich people
    • Nickdawg_us  •  10 months ago
      Let's review the bidding here. A 70-year old geezer comes before the public touting 30-year Treasury bonds (obviously, very confident that he himself will leave to age 100 to see his investment returned) because he "could not care less what the yield is" because the "yield is going down". Then, he describes his bullishness for the last 30 years and, implicitly, predicts a 60 year bull market. If this is not a sign that the Treasury market is at or near a top, I can't think what is.

      C'mon, Gary, don't spread this poppycock before the public. It is time to find a new gig.
    • GHUFRAN  •  10 months ago
      Gold will go up *
    • Rock Solid Truth  •  10 months ago
      Today's Reuters headline:

      "Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke warned Congress on Thursday that overzealous cuts to government spending could derail an already fragile recovery and said a U.S. debt default could wreak financial havoc."

      Meaning....you have to raise the debt ceiling and you have to increase taxes.

      And if you don't .......then it will become known that the Fed is a big Ponzi scheme and we will have to simply write off some treasury debt and roll over some issues........in order to free up resources for the treasury to pay bills and private holder's interest....and everyone will know that all the tresury debt the central bank holds never really has to be paid........since all profits....and losses.......get transfered back to the treasury.....they simply default on loans they owe themselves.......in order to pay the privately held debt and operating expenses.

      Ben is terriified that this will become common knowledge........

      But the smart money already knows this....that is why there is no fear.......and it is already priced in...and they are plowing inot treasuries like mad........only game in town.........

      The Eurozone is finished from an investment standpoint. That is a Lehman black hole money pit and will nevr be solved without debt destruction.....everyone who can is getting out now and not waiting around for Lehman weekend.

      Treasuries are the bomb.

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