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Daily Ticker

U.S. Economy Grows 2.8% in Q4, But Not Enough to Keep the Rally Going

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The Fed's announcement it will leave rates at zero until "at least" the end of 2014 makes a bit more sense in light of Friday's advanced fourth-quarter GDP report.

The U.S. economy grew 2.8% in the fourth quarter, the strongest since the second quarter of 2010 and up from 1.2% in the prior three quarters.

But growth was below consensus of 3% and the guts of the report suggested underlying weakness in the economy vs. strength, a big reason the Fed felt compelled to double-down on its zero interest rate policy. (See: Bernanke Pledges to Keep Rates Low Thru 2014: A "Very Pessimistic" Outlook, Former Fed VP Says)

U.S. stocks sold off in apparent reaction to the news, with the Dow recently down 0.7%.

But "let's not confuse the fundamentals with the market," my Breakout colleague Jeff Macke quips in the accompanying video, noting the market was arguably overdue for a pause after its stellar gains since mid-December.

Still, the fundamentals were not so rosy looking under the hood of the GDP data.

Inventory rebuilding accounted for nearly 2% of the growth and, excluding the restocking, real final sales rose just 0.8% in the quarter, down sharply from 3.2% in the third quarter. In addition, the personal savings rate fell to 3.7% vs. 5% in the first quarter of 2011 and business investment was tepid.

Government spending was also down for a fifth-straight quarter and 2.1% for all of 2011, the biggest decline since 1971. While less government spending is good for the deficit, it is another drag on economic growth.

"Bottom line: The stage is set for a significant slowdown in growth from the fourth to the first quarter, as inventories recede to more 'normal' levels," writes Diane Swonk, chief economist at Mesirow Financial. "The Fed appears to be validated...in its concerns about the outlook for the economy."

Nearly every economist came to a similar conclusion and this number, which itself is subject to revision, is likely to prompt some downward revisions to 2012 growth in the days ahead.

That said, 2.8% growth isn't chopped liver and, as Macke notes, "would've been celebrated like crazy" six months ago, when 'double-dip' fears were rife.

The bulls may be taking a well-deserved pause here but can take solace in the knowledge the economy is growing and the Fed is pledging to pull out all the stops, a potentially powerful combination for the market.

Aaron Task is the host of The Daily Ticker. You can follow him on Twitter at @aarontask or email him at altask@yahoo.com.

The Daily Ticker Asks

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  • Brian G  •  Chesterfield, Missouri  •  25 days ago
    The GDP grew at AN ANNUAL RATE of 2.8% in the 4th quarter. It did NOT grow by 2.8% in the quarter, but more like 7/10 %.
  • cooldude  •  26 days ago
    I guess the only good news is that we are doing better than Europe.
  • A Yahoo! User  •  25 days ago
    Screw "the Rally", the speculators, the deadbeats, the badly-run banks who lent them the money, and most of all, Bailout Ben Bernanke and his thieving "dove" cronies,
  • kim  •  23 days ago
    "This is not a fake recovery its real" Hey kojak, That's all fine and dandy, however if this is such a real recovery then why does the fed need to extend the promise of low rates??

    Also: what happens if somebody out there actually takes notice of the real inflation and rates all of a sudden have to spike?? .........No more real recovery??

    How about we analyze all sides of this next time??
  • J  •  Homewood, Illinois  •  25 days ago
    The best line in that video that sums it all up..."All the government numbers are cooked"
  • Deepsix  •  Norwalk, Connecticut  •  26 days ago
    Obama's Entitlement Nation strikes again, 26% of GDP is the government share and growing, the highest ever. Obama thinks any cuts will cut government to the bone, meanwhile a 16 Trillion dollar national debt looms along with 4 Trillion in cumulative State debt, 42 Trillion in private debt and more tax increases to look forward too.
  • Philvester  •  Denver, Colorado  •  25 days ago
    Is this video player stopping (freezing) for anyone else or just me? (I doubt just me)
  • robert  •  Pflugerville, Texas  •  26 days ago
    To andy - Yes things are bad - take the fed's fingers out of every aspect in the economy and financial markets and everything would collapse. There's no IPOs, banks are borrowing free money and buying stocks like catepillar - pushing them up and then selling to make a bigger profit than loaning money to small business at two percent interest. Wise up - America is done - take the fork out!
  • NotSure  •  26 days ago
    Economy? Grows? Really? Wow, that's great news! Don't forget to tell this to the millions of unemployed.
  • xtra  •  26 days ago
    bernanke could tell us if the Fed forced savings into risk investments if/when before the plug was pulled on the market in 1929....
  • joe  •  26 days ago
    I guess I need to remind everyone that Q3 came out at 2.5 and has been revised down to 1.8. When GDP comes out it is based on an estimate for exports. The export number comes out later and that is why it is revised. Exports dropped 7% in Nov. I bet this number ends up at 1.6%. New recession coming.
  • Badger10  •  Elmhurst, Illinois  •  25 days ago
    We are three years into the recovery with lots of stimulas and we still have sub-par GDP. After a delevarging recession a recovery can take as long as seven years or more. In normal recessions you can buy the bearish news and be rewarded. Its is possible that if the Global
    market stays weak we may see a shallow recession unless we get our fiscal house in order.
    One has to realize that we are now a service type economy now, not a manufactoring economy of the 20th century. I still see alot of layoffs that should offset any new job creations. I realize that the stock market is not the economy but even the earnings and revenues are starting to slip. I am not a doomer but a realist who sees an economy that is struggling to maintain or attain growth.
  • Pedro  •  25 days ago
    Cooked Financial Books by your friends at the Federal Reserve and Wall Street Banksters... These numbers will be revised downward in three-months to reflect the truth.
  • VSerf  •  24 days ago
    Since 2009 the FED has printed more than half the US GDP. Using real math that lowers GDP. Bernanke must go!
  • Badger10  •  Elmhurst, Illinois  •  26 days ago
    My main concern is the 15 trillion dollar deficit and slow growth ahead. It is inconceivable that we can bring this debt down with out having an adverse effect on the economy. Market has put a near term top in and a correction is in order. How long do we ignore the slow growth
  • bobshep  •  Charlotte, North Carolina  •  25 days ago
    Wondering what the first quarter of 2012 will briing after all the holiday spending and seasonal jobs are factored in.
  • Cuffy Meigs  •  Trenton, New Jersey  •  26 days ago
    If you look at every "recovery" following a recession since the Great Depression they all have one thing in common. GDP growth is substantial. Many times in the 4 to 6% range. This in turn ramps up hiring which in turn creates more disposable income and more revenue for the government. 1.7% growth is anemic. It can't support hiring and that's why we seem to be in an never ending malaise. Lowering gas and food prices would go a long way at this point but I don't even see that happening. Obama's anti-business policies are thwarting the recovery. An ever increasing regulatory atmosphere is stiffling job growth and just wait and see what happens if Obamacare ever get's fully implemented.
  • Bob  •  25 days ago
    MSN Money just released an article which in effects says that Ron Paul's stand on the Fed and his fiscal ideals are the ones most likely to shape this election. They further go on to say, "Evidence is building that we need a hard reset to harder money and a refocusing on the structural problems we face, from an inefficient health care system driving the government's long-term deficit to a trade policy that allows Asian mercantilists to take advantage of blue-collar American workers." and "But the goals beneath the calls for the gold standard -- the desire to end monetary shenanigans and restore the dollar's stability -- are still achievable."

    The real problem is that Washington and the political establishment does not want change because for most of them they benefit from the relationship with the Fed in one way or another. Ron Paul has always been considered the maverick in politics because his morals and ethics put him in contradiction with the corruption in Washington. He knows very well that the increase of printing money is directly linked to our government borrowing from the Fed. The government prints more money to pay off that debt which results in inflation. Inflation is simply a way to tax the citizens without their knowing it IS a tax.

    http://money.msn.com/investing/will-ron-paul-onomics-beat-obama-mirhaydari.aspx?page=0
  • Andy  •  Sunnyvale, California  •  23 days ago
    WWhoa! just 3 months ago, most people on these boards were saying that Q4 was inevitably the start of a recession. reat to see the real numbers come out above 1% and actually come out above 2% and actually come out above 2.5%. Beautiful.
  • el fongerino  •  New York, New York  •  26 days ago
    This is the 20-year recession Japan had, when they dropped their rates to zero to prop up the zombies. Of course growth is a joke. And with an aging population and Socialist Insecurity about to crater, watch out.

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