Slower growth is here to stay but it's all relative.
China's second quarter GDP numbers came in at 7.5%. That's just in-line with average forecasts but slower than the previous quarter's 7.7% growth. Q2's 7.5% rate is actually the ruling party's growth target for all of 2013 - keep in mind that it was 14.2% just six years ago.
"China is a much more mature economy now, so the days of growing at 8-9% are gone."
That's according to Ruchir Sharma, he’s head of Emerging Markets and Global Macro at Morgan Stanley Investment Management and author of "Breakout Nations."
Signs of a slowdown across China have been piling up. June trade numbers missed badly, with exports falling by 3.1% compared to the same period a year ago.
Sharma thinks a slowdown isn't the worst thing for China, or the global economy, because the country is returning to a "more sustainable growth rate" of about 5-6%."The good news is that China doesn't need 7-8% growth anymore to generate full employment because the population is aging."
Most significantly, Sharma believes a big shift is taking shape that will change the world economy over the next few decades.
"So all these countries that benefitted from China's investment boom, the commodities boom, those get hurt. On the flip side is that the U.S. and other countries which import large amount of commodities may in fact benefit from this development because lower commodity prices with China's slower growth may help the consumers in these countries."
And here is Sharma's central point: "So I think we could see a shifting world order away from the commodity exporters which were the big stars of the last decade towards commodity importers which benefit from lower commodity prices this decade."
So who will feel the greatest negative impact from a Chinese slowdown? Business Insider Australia has some great charts, citing Morgan Stanley's Sharon Lam who believes South Korea and Taiwan are in the most trouble, closely followed by Australia, Indonesia and Malaysia.
Tell Us What You Think!
Got a topic you’d like covered? Have a guest you’d like to see interviewed? Send an email to: email@example.com.
More From The Daily Ticker:
- Budget, Tax & Economy
- Politics & Government
- Ruchir Sharma