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Contrary Indicator
  • The perpetual discussion about the ongoing battle between rich and poor, between the one percent and the ninety-nine percent, has generated a great deal of heat, but not much light. With The Great Divergence: America's Growing Inequality Crisis and What We Can Do About It, New Republic columnist Timothy Noah brings a well-reasoned array of high-wattage spotlights.

    Noah, who joined Henry Blodget and me this morning to discuss his book, traces the history of income inequality and synthesized much of the academic research on the topic into a highly readable extended essay. And the news isn't great. "There are various ways to measure income distribution, and by all of them the United States ranks at or near the bottom in terms of equality."

    The data — and our personal experiences — tend to tell a widely accepted story. Between 1950 and 1980, a period economist call "the Great Compression," income inequality tended to decline. The rising tide of American economic growth lifted all boats, and people at the bottom and middle runs of the income ladders enjoyed rising incomes and standards of living. But starting in about 1980, the period of "The Great Divergence," things began to change.

    Noah runs through the various explanations that pundits, economists and polemicists have put forward to account for the fact that the very rich have been getting richer while the poor, middle-class, and upper-middle-class struggle. He rules out some of the usual suspects. "The Great Divergence did not result from societal prejudice against women or blacks," he writes. The influx of low-skilled immigrants has played a role in undermining wages and benefits at the bottom of the income scale. But, as Noah notes, while immigration "has helped create income inequality during the past three decades, it isn't the star of the show."

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  • The decline in financial failure has been one of the big themes of the U.S. economic recovery over the past few years. As a general rule, corporate bankruptcies, debt defaults, and bank failures have been decreasing steadily. But last Friday, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation's bank-closure SWAT teams partied like it was 2009, closing five banks and bringing the total number of failures to 2012. (The completed failed bank list can be seen here.)

    Palm Desert National Bank, a one-branch bank with $126 million in assets based in Palm Desert, California, failed and was taken over by Pacific Premier Bank in nearby Costa Mesa.

    Plantation Federal Bank, a six-branch bank with $486 million in assets based in Pawleys Island, South Carolina, failed and its deposits were taken over by First Federal Bank in Charleston, South Carolina.

    InterBank, a four-branch bank with $481 million in assets based in Maple Grove, Minnesota, failed and was taken over by Great Southern Bank of Reeds Spring,

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  • On Friday morning we got our first look at the government's estimate for economic growth in the first quarter of 2012. The Commerce Department reported that the economy grew at a 2.2 percent annual rate in the first quarter. That's something of a disappointment, given that growth was higher in the fourth quarter of 2011, and that forecasters like Macroeconomic Advisers are pegging current quarter growth at about 3 percent. But the report did contain some optimistic news on the consumer and housing, as well as some negative news on the government.

    This isn't the last word on first quarter GDP. Far from it. As the government notes, "The Bureau emphasized that the first quarter advance estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or are subject to further revision by the source agency." A second estimate will be released in May and the third, final report will come out in July. And it's likely that the numbers will be revised upwards.

    On its face, however, the

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  • House prices continue to fall. The Case-Shiller index slipped again in February 2012, falling to levels not seen since 2003. And that's bad news for the economy. Falling house prices tamp down consumer spending, make it harder for people to tap home equity, and increase the likelihood that borrowers may walk away from their mortgages. But as Barry Ritholtz and I discuss in the accompanying video, there's much more to housing's impact on the economy then home prices.

    When a home is built or sold, it creates a great deal of economic activity that, almost by definition, takes place in the U.S. All sorts of people are called into action: the broker, the appraiser, the insurance agent, plumbers, movers, inspectors. Housing activity also generates tax revenue for cities and states. So when the volume of housing activity falls, it causes a lot of collateral damage. And when the volume of housing activity rises, it spurs growth.

    Ideally, we'd have rising prices and rising volume, as we had during the boom years. But it's not so bad to have falling prices and higher volume. And there's a rising tide of evidence that suggests housing-related activity is increasing.

    First, look at existing home sales. Existing home sales seem to have hit bottom in 2010. For all of 2011, existing-home sales rose 1.7 percent to 4.26 million from 4.19 million in 2010. And in each of the first three months of 2012, existing home sales were higher than they were in the corresponding month of 2011. In January they were up .7 percent, in February they were up 8.8 percent, and in March they were up 5.2 percent. The upshot: So 2010 was better than 2009 and it is sure looking that 2012 will be better than in 2011 when it comes to volume.

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  • Student loan debt has suddenly popped onto the scene. Congress is grappling whether to continue a policy that keeps rates low, and President Obama is on a multi-state campus tour in which the subject frequently arises. Amid talk that student loan debt now exceeds credit card debt (see here and here), questions are being raised about the wisdom of borrowing to purchase a higher education. The Associated Press reports that students emerging from universities into the labor market face bleak prospects, meaning they'll have a tough time finding a job that will enable them to pay back the loans they've taken.

    Historically, it's been an extremely very good idea to scrimp, save, and borrow to get a post-secondary degree. The returns to education in the 20th century were extremely high — the more grades you completed, the more money you made. End of story. Thanks to changes in the economy, in the cost structure of higher education, the calculus may be changing. And as Aaron Task and I discuss

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  • Small banks continue to exit the TARP programs. The latest to exit is Gateway Bancshares.

    Gateway, based in Ringgold, Georgia, in May 2009, took $6 million in CPP funds. In January, Gateway agreed to be acquired by Chattanooga, Tenn.-based First Volunteer. After completion of the transaction, First Volunteer on April 13 repaid the $6 million to Treasury and repurchased preferred shares given Treasury in lieu of warrants for $300,000. Total cash returned: $6.3 million.

    Daniel Gross is economics editor at Yahoo! Finance

    email him at grossdaniel11@yahoo.com; follow him on Twitter @grossdm

  • For the first time in three weeks, on Friday April 20, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation closed a bank. The casualty was tiny Fort Lee Federal Savings Bank, a one-branch bank in Fort Lee, New Jersey, with about $52 million in assets. The FDIC took control of Fort Lee Federal Savings and sold it to Alma Bank, a small institution started in Astoria, Queens, in 2007.

    Through the first 16 weeks of 2011, only 17 banks with a combined $5.07 billion in assets have failed. That's relatively high by historical standards. But in the first sixteen weeks of 2011, 34 banks with a combined $14.8 billion in assets failed. So far this year, then, bank failures are running at less than half the rate of 2011. (Here's the complete failed bank list.)

    Daniel Gross is economics editor at Yahoo! Finance

    Follow him on Twitter @grossdm; email him at grossdaniel11@yahoo.com

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  • Nearly four years have passed since the Panic of 2008 and the economy has been expanding for nearly three years. Even as many analysts remain skeptical of the durability of the recovery, the trends are clear. Almost across the board, financial failure is on the decline in America. Delinquency rates on mortgages and credit cards, corporate defaults, and personal bankruptcy filings are all trending downward, which is good news for the financial system and for the economy at large. Banks have been among the beneficiaries of the decline in failure. When fewer people and institutions fail to keep up with their debts, fewer banks fail.

    Our intermittent Failure Friday series, which documents the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation's moves to take over failed banks, helps tell the story. Here's the last installment. In 2009 and 2010, the FDIC took over an average of three banks per week. But the financial SWAT teams that descend on listing banks over the weekend have had less work to do of

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  • China on Friday reported that its economy grew at an annualized rate of 8.1 percent in the first quarter, down from 8.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2011.

    The phenomenon of slowing growth in one of the world's booming economies is one we may have to get used to, says Ruchir Sharma, author of Breakout Nations: In Pursuit of the Next Economic Miracles. Sharma is the rare pundit who puts other people's money where his mouth is. He's head of emerging market equities and global macro at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, which runs about $25 billion in emerging market assets.

    In Breakout Nations, Sharma takes readers on a tour of the world. And one of his big takeaways is that the huge economies that have been growing at such a rapid clip — the BRIC bloc of Brazil, Russia, India and China — are not likely to repeat their performance of the past decade.

    "If you look at the history of investing, you find there's always some theme that captures the imagination in a particular decade, and then it runs out of gas the following decades." Think of tech stocks in the 1990s, Japan in the 1980s, gold and inflation plays in the 1970s. In the 200s, Sharma notes, "every single emerging market did extremely well." Fueled by easy money and rising volumes of trade, emerging economies that grew at a 3 percent clip in the 1980s and 1990s began to sport growth rates of 6 percent or more. "The biggest beneficiaries of this were the largest emerging markets," he said — i.e. the BRICs.

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  • We've got another TARP exit.

    C&F Financial Corporation, based in West Point, Va., took $20 million in Capital Purchase Program funds in January 2009. In July 2011 it repaid $10 million. And on April 11, it paid back the remaining $10 milion. Treasury still owns warrants in the bank that are likely worth another $1 million.

    Daniel Gross is economics editor at Yahoo! Finance

    follow him on Twitter @grossdm; email him at grossdaniel11@yahoo.com

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About Daniel Gross

Daniel Gross joined Yahoo! Finance in the fall of 2010 as columnist, economics editor, and a co-host of The Daily Ticker. The best-selling author of six books, including Forbes Greatest Business Stories and Dumb Money: How Our Greatest Financial Minds Bankrupted the Nation, Gross has been covering politics, business, and economics for two decades. The longtime “Moneybox” columnist for Slate, he was a staff writer and columnist for Newsweek and a contributor to the “Economic View” column in the New York Times.

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