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  • Where Did All The Bears Go?

    So traders everywhere are worrying that the number of bears in the recent Investors Intelligence poll is down to just 15.5%, the lowest since March ‘87.

    The thinking goes if there are no bears, the market has to peak.

    Not so fast, my friends (thanks Lee Corso).  Looking back, March ‘87 was the kick off to a huge six month rally.  Of course, it ended with the ‘87 crash, still it wasn’t this big sell signal.

    Then looking at data since ‘62, we’ve seen bears consistently beneath 15% and it really didn’t seem to matter.  During much of the ’60s, the bears were ‘low’, yet the DJIA continued to rally.  Fun fact time, the all-time low was just 4.5% in January 1977!

    I’m not saying ignore the low number of bears here, just be aware that we’ve seen this before and honestly it wasn’t that bearish.  

    Read More »from Where Did All The Bears Go?So traders everywhere are worrying...
  • By John Kosar, CMT

    The U.S. dollar is under pressure again today, fueled at least in part by the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Eric Rosengren, who said that the government shutdown could further delay a tapering of its asset-buying program because of a lack of official data on the economy.

    The US Dollar Index is currently trading at its lowest level since February 4th.

    Moreover, the chart below shows that the US Dollar Index (an index of six component currencies that is heavily weighted towards Europe) is currently trading at 79.88, which is just 0.25 points or 0.3% above 79.63, a major inflection point in the index that has already contained the greenback on the downside four times since March 2012.

    A breakdown 79.63 could spur even more weakness as dollar bulls scramble for the exits and, depending on what happens in Washington, could help trigger an additional 5.0% decline to its next key level at 75.79, which is the May 2011 benchmark low.

    We are watching the

    Read More »from Will an Extended Government Shutdown Mean Big Trouble for the US Dollar?
  • joelzimmer:

    Wall St

    Financial District, Manhattan

  • yahoofinance:

    Do you think the US is energy independent? We asked the Yahoo Finance community what they think. Here are the poll results (via Ross Tucker):

  • By Axel Merk

    When the U.S. was on the brink of war with Syria, the greenback and ultra-safe Treasuries ought to have been in high demand. But they weren’t to the extent one might have expected. Is the war a non-event? Is the greenback not what it used to be? Or are Treasuries not really “safe”?

    Treasuries have had a rough time of late. When House Speaker John Boehner first endorsed the President’s call for military action in Syria, instead of rallying, bonds were unable to dig out of their hole for the day. Maybe Treasuries are more reacting to the likelihood of “Fed tapering” than the implications of what could be perceived as limited military action.

    In contrast, gold, the shiny metal often popular during times of crisis, did rally on the news. And the euro ticked up, too. Indeed, the euro has had numerous good days when the odds of military intervention increased and declined as the threat of an imminent strike receded. Could it be that the ugly duckling (the euro) is shaping up to

    Read More »from Merk: Syria's Implications for the U.S. Dollar

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