Along with extolling the cash-spewing powers of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.’s (BRK-A, BRK-B) many operating companies and praising the brilliance of their managers, Chairman Warren Buffett used his eagerly consumed annual shareholder’s letter to launch a search for one brave devil’s advocate on what he termed a "subpar" year (the company's 14.4% increase in per-share book value failed to beat the S&P 500's 16% total return in 2012, its ninth "miss" in 48 years and its third in four years).

In addition to inviting investors, select financial journalists and hand-picked analysts to pepper him and partner Charlie Munger with questions at the massive May 4 annual meeting in Omaha, Buffett for the first time (“to spice things up,” he wrote) will choose one professional investor who’s bearish on Berkshire to supply skeptical queries.

Buffett writes that the “credentialed investor” should preferably be short Berkshire stock, which in the past year has gained nearly 30%, placing the A shares at

Has the “overdue pullback” that a host of market watchers invited already arrived and left? Did the “healthy correction” that so many investors prescribed already deliver its unpleasant therapy over the course a week’s time and 3% ebb in the Standard & Poor’s 500 index?

While many try, it’s never possible to draw the next wiggle or wave on the stock chart, of course. What’s certain is that stocks’ gentle, imperturbable ascent to start the year faltered in the past week, as some loud noises scattered the sparrows and reintroduced volatility into the air.

The market’s rebound of around 250 Dow Jones Industrial Average points since midday Tuesday is probably best viewed as a respectable bounce and gesture of resilience, rather than a decisive sign the market’s resolute 12-week climb has resumed to take stocks powerfully higher from here.

The linear explanation tells us the tape last week was buffeted first by (mostly vaporous) fears of a less-generous Federal Reserve, and then Monday by

Has Washington lost its knack for triggering market tantrums with invented budget crises?

In just four days, a package of automatic spending reductions devised to be so distasteful to both parties that they wouldn’t possibly be allowed to occur will almost certainly be allowed to occur. This is the so-called sequester. It amounts to $85 billion in annual federal spending reductions, or about half a percent of GDP, and all of official Washington now seems resigned to the fact that no budget deal will head off their arrival.

So then, why are the major stock indexes still challenging five-year highs rather than being knocked around by every headline about policy dysfunction and likely fiscal “anti-stimulus?”

There appear to be at least three broad reasons that the investors are facing this deadline with less anxiety than they did during the 2011 stalemate over the debt ceiling (which lit the whole sequester fuse in the first place) and the brinksmanship over the “fiscal cliff” in

Investors have suddenly tuned in to signals that mainstream American consumers are sweating the start of 2013.

Wal-Mart Stores Inc.’s (WMT) weak fourth-quarter sales and leaked insider emails about a rough start to February have helped to amplify concerns that the restoration of the 2% payroll tax Jan. 1, delayed tax refunds and steadily climbing fuel prices have stressed household spending. Darden Restaurants Inc. (DRI), parent of Red Lobster and Olive Garden, Friday blamed these factors for soft customer volumes. Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (ANF) and Nordstrom Inc. (JWN) chimed in with tempered outlooks for coming quarters, as well. Most of these companies’ shares have been clipped as the market adjusts to a more sober consumer theme.

The logical reflex impulse now would be to further sell stocks at direct risk of experiencing this apparent consumer fatigue - the chain retailers and casual-restaurant operators. These have indeed underperformed the market in recent days. Yet, another big

Why are so many big-name hedge fund managers so chatty lately?

There was a time not long ago when even well-known hedge fund captains – those with enviable portfolio returns, whispered-about personal wealth and reputations for flame-tempered investment brilliance – rarely spoke on the record or appeared publicly. The exclusive nature of their investment vehicles, open only to institutions and “qualified” wealthy individuals, allowed them to disclose little, and most took advantage of this prerogative.

Yet it’s been hard to watch a stretch of financial television in recent months without seeing one or another of these stewards of private capital holding forth on prospects for the world economy, Federal Reserve policy and their own favorite investment positions.

Public battles

The shrill and sometimes nasty public battle waged on CNBC’s air between Bill Ackman and Carl Icahn over the merits and demerits of the once-obscure Herbalife Ltd. (HLF) has, of course, been the most

The common line is that the recent boomlet in corporate acquisitions is all about confidence. Sure, the growing faith among CEOs that the world economy is not about to seize up helps. But to confidence add cash, competition and crowd psychology.

The cash idling on large-company balance sheets, plus the cheap-and-ready cash on offer in the debt markets, are a potent fuel. Now that the post-crisis trauma is easing and the aftershocks calmed for now, corporate cash has quickly gone from seeming like a prudent cushion against hardship to a dead weight earning nothing.

It becomes quite easy for Comcast Corp. (CMCSA) to brag about purchasing the remaining 49% of NBC Universal from partner General Electric Co. (GE) for $16.7 billion in cash when that cash would otherwise be yielding nothing and losing value to inflation. Perhaps Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK-A, BRK-B) and buyout firm 3G Capital agreed to pay a rich price in forking over $72.50 a share for slow-growing H.J. Heinz Co. (HNZ). But

In 2013, it’s finally acceptable again to be skeptical about the immediate outlook for the market without invoking Lehman Brothers, the Great Depression, Weimar Germany, or Armageddon.

The fear of an imminent macro meltdown or policy debacle has receded from foreground to background, and so the market debate runs within more-normal bounds of risk versus reward. Investors are back, mostly, to arguing over the direction of the next 5% to 10% for the stock indexes, rather than the next 50%.

With that in mind, the fresh case for a meaningful pullback that would end the recent persistent, sturdy rally rests not on imminent system failure but on a collection of incremental observations on stock valuations, technical conditions, economic velocity and investor-behavior cues.

The veteran financial adviser who has come to be known in some circles as the “mystery broker” for his timely market calls featured here and in Barron’s over the past few years is looking at just such a mixture of signals

Heading to a place we’ve never been before – that’s the popular theme among stock-market watchers lately. Some of the broadest measures of the market have already scored new all-time highs, including the Wilshire 5000 index, the Russell 2000 small-cap benchmark, the quietly powerful Standard & Poor’s Mid Cap 400 and even the equal-weighted version of the S&P 500, which is tracked by the Guggenheim S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP).

The rhythm and rhyme of the tape itself has been unfamiliar to many ears, judging by the surprised commentary building up about stocks’ puzzling refusal to pull back in expected ways, despite what appear over-stretched short-term rally trends and the somewhat self-satisfied investor attitudes that often precede declines.

Yet in some important respects, the way the first weeks of 2013 have played out is quite similar to the opening acts of both last year and 2011. Consider: As of Valentine’s Day, the S&P 500 was up 5.9% year to date in 2011, and up 7.4% last