Despite geopolitical flare-ups in Ukraine and the Middle East, the ETF tracking emerging markets, the EEM, is at its highest level this year and up 6-percent year to date.
But according to Gina Sanchez, founder of Chantico Global, the EEM may have rough roads ahead because of its composition. About 17 percent of the ETF is composed of companies based in China. On a sector basis, tech companies make up 17 percent of the index. That combination could be a problem, she believes.
“In technology we have seen earnings definitely stretched quite dramatically,” said Sanchez, a CNBC contributor. “In China, we’re looking at the potential of a property slump that could be coming later this year. You can’t really discount that and how investors will take that.”
Though Sanchez has been long emerging markets all year, she says she’s now “tiptoeing back from that, basically feeling like we’re getting to the end.”
Sanchez is also concerned about fund flows out of emerging markets. “This could be the beginning of the end of this run for emerging markets,” she warned.
For Richard Ross, global technical strategist at Auerbach Grayson, doesn’t like the emerging markets ETF based on the technicals. Since 2012, the EEM has traded in a range between $36 and $45 per share. On Monday, it closed at $44.31.
“Up around $45, we have failed here each and every year going back to 2011,” said Ross, a “Talking Numbers” contributor. “Now we’re into key resistance. So if you haven’t owned emerging markets I don’t think now is the time to necessarily chase them whilst we’re into this resistance.”
But should the EEM break above $45, Ross believes it would become a buy.
“Were we to break out above $45, I think you would want to chase it,” Ross said. “I like what I see here but if you don’t own it, don’t chase into resistance. You have to wait for that breakout. If you do own it, good for you! Keep riding it.”
For a full discussion on the emerging markets ETF (EEM), with Sanchez on the fundamentals and Ross on the technicals, watch the above video.
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