Should we think of the markets right now as really a two-tiered market?
That's what Ralph Acampora, director of technical analysis at Altraira Wealth Management, believes. The man often called "the godfather of technical analysis" said there's a difference in performance between large-cap indices and smaller-cap indices.
"The large caps, as measured by the Dow [Jones Industrial Average] and the S&P  have done well," Acampora said. But, as those major indices hit new highs, "the secondaries –the NASDAQ Composite, the Russell 2000 and the S&P MidCap  – unfortunately [are] failing to do that. And, as long as that continues, that tells me there is a two-tiered market."
The only way for Acampora to be positive on the markets would be "new highs in the NASDAQ, the MidCap and the Russell."
What could be helping the S&P 500 and the Dow may be what's happening overseas. Larger U.S. companies generally have more exposure to foreign economies than smaller-cap stocks. Germany's "DAX Index, which I think is the engine of Europe, like the Dow Jones earlier this year, couldn't make a new high," Acampora said. "But, that's not the case today. Europe looks strong to me – looks very strong."
A two-tiered market means investors have to be more selective in their investments, according to Acampora. "You have to be really stock-specific," he said. "This is a stockpickers’ market. You want to avoid the ones that are not participating and go into the ones that are participating."
Also weighing on stocks is the calendar. "Technicians look at this as the second year of the president's term in office and that usually has a correction," Acampora said. "Between now and October, there is this tendency that the market could correct. And, if I don't see any improvement in the NASDAQ, MidCap and the Russell, I think the correction's going to be deeper there."
But, all may not be lost. Acampora sees a positive sign with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Dow Jones Transportation Average both near their record highs.
"When they're both doing well, it bodes well for the economy," Acampora said. "The market is a leading economic indicator. So, long term, I have no problem. I'm very, very bullish long term."
To see the full discussion with Acampora on what's next for the markets, watch the above video.
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