Goldman Sachs' head of commodities research says gold will drop once the US budget battle subsides. But, is it the "slam dunk sell" he says it is?
The head of Goldman Sachs’ commodities research division says gold is a “slam dunk sell”.
Jeffrey Currie has made some pretty bold predictions in the recent past. Notably, Currie said in January that oil would hit $150 per barrel by the summer. He was too high by about $40.
Speaking at a panel in London on Tuesday, Currie said that once the US budget battle comes to a conclusion, the American economy will improve. So, that would make gold what he termed a “slam dunk sell” towards Goldman’s price target of $1,050 per ounce. The last time gold was that low, the world was digging out of the financial crisis half a decade ago.
As Business Insider notes, Currie and fellow Goldman analyst Damien Courvalin were short-term bulls when the Fed announced that it wasn’t going to taper its $85 billion per month bond-buying program. Gold had other plans and continued to drop after they released their comments on September 19.
The yellow metal has been on retreat for much of a year. Over the last twelve months, it’s down nearly 26%. Over the last 30 days, gold is down nearly 5%.
Is Goldman’s top commodities analyst correct that gold drop if and when Congress and the President come to an agreement?
“Just like some of the highflying stocks that we’ve seen in the stock market, gold is a cult in and of itself,” says Talking Numbers contributor Richard Ross, Global Technical Strategist at Auerbach Grayson. “It was going up for 12 years so old habits die very hard in this business.”
For Ross, a key indicator has been gold’s inability to move above its 150-day moving average for well over a year. He sees gold staying within its recent trading range between $1,275 and $1,350 but doesn’t think traders should add to their positions. “I’m with Goldman on this one,” says Ross. “Sidelines to short on gold.”
CNBC contributor Gina Sanchez, founder of Chantico Global, is also siding with Goldman. “The long-term outlook for gold is bearish on a fundamental basis,” says Sanchez.
“We’ve seen six weeks of outflows out GLD [the gold ETF],” says Sanchez. “That basically tells you that nobody’s really buying this.”
Then what technical levels would cause Ross to change his mind? What about the dollar’s effect on gold?
Watch the video above to hear the fundamental and technical take on gold.
More on Talking Numbers: