How soon -- if ever -- will the S&P 500 get to 2,000?
Now that the S&P 500 has breached the 1,700 level, is 2,000 that far off?
Let’s look at the numbers: In the first seven months of 2013, the S&P 500 is up 19.5%. To get to 2,000, the S&P 500 will have to move up another 17.6% from here. If it were to do so by year-end, it would mean the index has run up 40.6%.
The last time you had a 12-month stretch more than 40% was in the 2010, when the market was rebounding from the financial crisis. At that time, the S&P 500 wasn’t breaking new highs. Instead, it was trying to get back to its 2008 levels.
The highs we’re seeing right now are in part due to earnings growth. According to Thomson Reuters, earnings from stocks in the S&P 500 this quarter have grown 4.2%. But, that’s the aggregated number. Break it down by sector, and you see something entirely different. Financial services are doing great: their earnings have grown 28.5%. Consumer discretionary earnings are a distant second, up 8.3%.
Then you have the other side of the spectrum. Energy companies are seeing their earnings fall by 9.4% while materials companies’ earnings are second-worst in the bunch, down 8.3%. Overall, five out of ten sectors are seeing a decline in earnings.
In other words, growth in overall earnings comes mostly from great performances in just two sectors.
So, is the S&P 500 at 2,000 crazy?
We ask CNBC contributors Steve Cortes, founder of Veracruz TJM, to look at the fundamentals of the index. And, on the technicals, Abigail Doolittle, Global Technical Strategist at The Seaport Group, looks at the S&P 500’s charts to see if 2,000 is anytime around the corner.
To see where Cortes and Doolittle think the market will be headed next, watch the video above.
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