Stocks have had a great year and the economy is growing, too. But, don't expect a repeat performance from the markets, say two strategists. Here's why.
Just in time for the holidays: great news on the economy.
The US Commerce Department revised its third-quarter GDP growth rate to 4.13% from 3.6%. That means on a seasonally adjusted basis at an annual rate, the GDP for the United States is now $16.9 trillion. The last time the economy grew above 4% in a quarter was in the first quarter of 2012, when the GDP gained 4.9%. The economy has grown every quarter since April, 2011.
It's not only the economy that has grown impressively this year; it's also the stock market. The benchmark S&P 500 index is up 27.5% since the start of 2013, more than double its performance the previous year.
CNBC Contributor Andrew Busch, editor and publisher of The Busch Update, is skeptical the market will see similar results in 2014.
"It's darn hard to repeat this year because it's so amazingly good," says Busch. Nonetheless, Busch sees the market ending next year in positive territory. "Typically, after a big year like this, you do have an up year the next year."
Busch sees low interest rates, higher economic growth, and the budget deal as all being good fundamentals for the markets. However, he projects the markets will have more tepid returns next year.
"I'm looking for 5% to 10% for next year, but not down," says Busch." It's going to be volatile, though. That's for sure."
Jonathan Krinsky, Chief Market Technician at MKM Partners, agrees with Busch that next year will be a volatile one for the markets.
"I would probably tend to agree we're probably due for some volatility," says Krinsky. "We haven't tested the 200-day moving average in over a year. Even a pullback to the 200-day is perfectly healthy and normal."
To see what levels Krinksy is looking at for 2014 and to hear more of Busch's fundamental analysis of what's next for the markets in 2014, watch the video above.
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