Shhhh! The market is sleeping. But, is it about to wake up and roar?
On Tuesday, the benchmark S&P 500 index had its 42nd straight session without a one percent change, either on the upside or downside. The last time the market went this long without such a move was in 1995, when the S&P 500 went 95 days without a one percent move in either direction.
For those who may have forgotten, both the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended up tripling from 1995 to 2000.
If the Dow is going to move higher, it won't be because of the recent lull, according to Steve Pytlar, chief equity strategist at Prime Executions.
"We're actually still very positive on the Dow," Pytlar said. "The reason for that is really not what's happened in May or June but what happened back in January, February, [and] March."
The selloff in the Dow created what is known in technical analysis as a "bear trap," Pytlar explained. "All of those sellers on the way down in January got trapped out of position when the market suddenly reversed on them."
From the beginning of March until early May, the Dow traded in a tight range roughly between 16,000 and 16,575. "There was a lot of negative sentiment coming to the market at the time mainly because small caps were selling off," Pytlar said. "But, the S&P and the Dow as we see here were relatively stable."
The breakout above the 16,575 level "can project higher – about 4 or 5 percent even from these levels," Pytlar said. "So, we remain positive on the Dow."
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Gina Sanchez, founder of Chantico Global, is not as optimistic on the Dow index, noting that the market's best-performing sectors were defensive ones like utilities.
"I think that the Dow has been building a house of cards," said Sanchez, a CNBC contributor. "At some point, you're going to take one of those cards out and the rest is going to come down."
Sanchez is wary of those who are unperturbed by the market's recent calm. "There are a lot of players right now that are calling this 'The Great Moderation' and I just think that doesn't make any sense," said Sanchez. "It's like saying 'this time is different'. Well, it's not."
Fundamentals have been "stretched for some time," said Sanchez, adding, "I have a hard time looking at these fundamentals and this kind of very low volume and this kind of complacency and getting really excited about it."
To see the full discussion on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, with Pytlar on the technicals and Sanchez on the fundamentals, watch the above video.
- Australia International News
- Dow Jones Industrial Average