Data out of China on Thursday showed weaker-than-expected growth for that country's output and sales. And, as it now stands, the Chinese stock market is at multiyear lows. One legendary technical analyst believes it's about to get worse for Chinese equities.
Louise Yamada, managing director Louise Yamada Technical Research, says the Shanghai Composite Index is close to a breakdown. It's already off by 5% this year and is 33% lower than it was four years ago.
"It's been a four-year downtrend," says Yamada. "A lot of those years were when everyone was touting the strength of the Chinese economy, which is interesting."
Yamada see the Shanghai Composite as having stayed within a trading range between 2,000 and 2,400 over the past couple of years. As her chart of the index shows, starting last year, the index had small rallies that failed to take out previous highs.
"That's an indication of selling into strength," says Yamada, who sees testing of the 1,980 support level this week. A break below that level opens the door for even lower prices ahead.
"The path of least resistance appears down in this case," says Yamada. "Any break below about 2,000 – 1,980 [and] the market could go lower."
While she sees a strong possibility for Chinese stocks to head down further, she is not so sure it signals bad news for US equities.
"It's very difficult to say at this point," says Yamada. "They're in two completely different directions. And, I think that the fact that you've seen copper break down is more indicative of what might be portending for China than for us."
To see what Yamada thinks is next for the Chinese and American stock markets, watch the full interview in the video above.
- Shanghai Composite Index