Gold isn’t the only thing up in 2014. The euro is near its two-year highs.
However, one portfolio manager believes that the euro’s strength against the US dollar may be justified now but won’t last in the long term.
“The euro has moved up for all the right reasons,” says Chad Morganlander, portfolio manager at Stifel’s Washington Crossing Advisors. “Economic growth [in Europe] has been somewhat better than expected. In fact, the ECB (European Central Bank) has upped their estimate this week on growth of over 1% for Eurozone.”
However, Morganlander thinks the euro’s rise will reverse with an faster growth rate of 3% in the US for 2014.
“As we get into the warmer months,” says Morganlander, “the jobs market will improve, economic vitality will come back, and you'll start to see the dollar trade higher against the euro.”
As well, that will also mean good news for US stocks. “If the economy in the developed side improves like it is and continues to gradually accelerate,” says Morganlander, “you're going to see equity markets higher.”
CNBC contributor Andy Busch, editor and publisher of The Busch Update, disagrees with Morganlander’s outlook for the euro versus the US dollar based on the technicals for the euro.
Busch notes that the euro has been trading between $1.21 and $1.45 for much of the past five years. Over as short-term, he sees it as moving in an ascending triangle with $1.3870 as a resistance level. For Busch, that is a bullish signal for the euro.
“Typically, these (ascending triangle) patterns continue to break to the upside,” says Busch. “This week real key close above $1.3870 actually indicates more strength for the euro going forward…. I know it's hard to believe but it's pointing to a higher euro.”
To see the full discussion on the euro with Morganlander on the fundamentals and Busch on the technicals, watch the video above.
- Australia International News